Kramer's College Football Notebook: The Committee Has Gone Mad
If winning all of the games on your schedule is not enough, what precedent does that set? More importantly, in a year devoid of dominant teams, why should a program playing in a Power Five conference be penalized for accomplishing something no other team could? If anything, it should make the achievement that much more impressive.
The College Football Playoff selection committee has made it abundantly clear it is not of this mindset.
In its most recent College Football Playoff rankings, the committee dropped Florida State down to the No. 4 spot, bumping TCU up to No. 3, heading into the final weekend. In doing so, the committee has affirmed its stance that it does not care for the Seminoles' sloppy, cardiac-packed, blemish-less resume.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Now, let’s make one thing abundantly clear: Florida State has not looked crisp in many of its wins, and it is nowhere close to a dominant team. The Seminoles have major flaws—starting with their Heisman-winning quarterback who looks more hobbled by the week—and various pieces playing at a far less dominant level than they were a season ago.
But, they are undefeated. This cannot be reiterated enough. You can cry foul over the lack of quality teams in the ACC and make a valid case. Still, the Seminoles have done something no other team has done. They were also just leapfrogged by a team that nearly lost to Kansas mere weeks ago.
That is not a knock on TCU, which warrants the utmost playoff consideration given its overall season. In all actuality, this isn’t even a debate centered around head-to-head resumes.
It boils down to what matters most, which should be victories above all, no strings attached. Winning everything on your schedule—no matter the path taken to arrive at this point—should be valued more than it currently is.
That was the original plan, at least. Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples shared the CFP media guide's take on humans vs. computers as it relates to rankings:
"Wow RT @CarltonLemley: You won't believe what the CFP media guide says about using humans over computers for rankings pic.twitter.com/CZIQlHvHvf
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) December 3, 2014"
My, how things change.
However, this is far from the only takeaway from the committee’s final weekly release before the Top 25 (and the first-ever College Football Playoff) is set in stone.
Welcome to the Playoff, TCU
Florida State’s fall is TCU’s gain. Of course it is. The Horned Frogs' surprising climb to No. 3 in the latest rankings means much more for Gary Patterson’s team than it does for Jimbo Fisher’s.
This is the buffer TCU was so desperately seeking. Not only does it put the Horned Frogs ahead of the undefeated Seminoles, but it also, more importantly, distances them from Baylor, the only team to beat them this season. Although the separation between No. 3 and No. 6 may seem insignificant, it might as well be the Grand Canyon.
The Bears are by no means out of the College Football Playoff conversation, although they likely need help getting in under the circumstances. Despite owning a win over TCU, Baylor will likely be unable to make up the ground necessary to surpass TCU in the end. However, it doesn't hurt to have No. 9 Kansas State on deck in the finale.
If TCU struggles against Iowa State and Baylor waxes a Top 10 team, perhaps that will be enough to shake things up. Given the committee's most recent stance, however, this feels unlikely.
Once thought to be in a position of weakness due to the absence of a conference championship game, the Horned Frogs are now in the driver's seat.
No J.T. Barrett, No Problem
As it stands right now, Ohio State’s playoff hopes haven’t wavered despite a seismic shift in public perception. The loss of star quarterback J.T. Barrett to season-ending surgery has complicated matters, and committee chairman Jeff Long addressed this topic while appearing on ESPN (via Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod):
"Jeff Long on J.T. Barrett injury: “Ohio State’s situation has not been impacted at this point…we will evaluate his replacement."
— Ben Axelrod (@BenAxelrod) December 3, 2014"
Everything is on course. The Buckeyes still need help, but, for the time being, it's business as usual.
With that cleared up, you can’t help but zero in on the most fascinating part of that statement. While Ohio State moved up to No. 5, thanks to Mississippi State’s loss to Ole Miss, the word “reevaluate” jumps off the page. It was the most meaningful of Long's remarks in his brief appearance.
The committee chairman has made the committee's stance here clear as day: Ohio State is on trial with new quarterback Cardale Jones, and the takeaways from this game will be judged differently than any other game played this season.
As a result, Ohio State doesn't just have to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. It also has to look the part of a top-four team with a top-flight QB while doing so.
Arizona Looks to Control Its Own Playoff Destiny
TCU’s ascent to No. 3 wasn’t the only notable jump in the rankings. Arizona surged four spots in the latest Top 25, at a time when it matters most and with a final impression still to make.
No longer just a backup plan reserved for chaos; the Wildcats, at No. 7, are a team you need to be thinking about when it comes to playoff consumption. Suddenly, the Pac-12 Championship has the feel of a quarterfinal.
If Oregon wins, it will obviously be granted access to the playoff. The Ducks were tabbed as the No. 2 team again this week and could potentially seize the No. 1 spot with a solid performance. Regardless, they're in with a win.
An Arizona win could throw a wrench into the process. It would give the Wildcats two victories over a team the committee clearly likes. It would also give Arizona more momentum to close out the year than any other program in the country, which would certainly help its cause in these closed-door discussions.
While Arizona might not be a lock to crack the top four with a victory, its movement prior to its final game certainly helps the push. Now comes the hard part of the plan, which involves no committee opinion or poll.
The Wildcats have to beat a much healthier, much more efficient Oregon team than the last time these two teams met. They also have to stop the quarterback playing better than any college football player on the planet right now.
No one said it would be easy.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
