New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers: Breaking Down San Diego's Game Plan
The San Diego Chargers (8-4) continue their brutal late-season stretch with the New England Patriots (9-3) coming to town on Sunday. If the Chargers want to topple the class of the AFC, they must generate big plays and finish when pressuring Tom Brady. Let’s figure out how they can do that in this week’s breakdown.
The Chargers are riding high after a nail-biter versus the Baltimore Ravens, one week after their thrilling match with the St. Louis Rams. This time, it was the offense that sealed the win, as Philip Rivers connected with Eddie Royal for the game-winning touchdown. The return of running back Ryan Mathews and a healthier defense continue to pay dividends, and Rivers has returned to his early-season form.
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The Patriots are coming off a close loss to the red-hot Packers. Brady-to-Rob Gronkowski has been a reliable and entertaining focal point of the offense. The emergence of Brandon LaFell and the league’s largest running back by committee help, too. As always, New England is a title contender and one of the league’s best late-season teams.
If San Diego is to keep its chokehold of the fifth seed in the AFC, the current Chargers formula of struggling early and playing beautifully in the final minutes will not fly here. The team will have to be great from the get-go, and that starts with Rivers and the offense.
Offensive Key to the Game: Big plays from the big pass-catchers
Rivers and the Chargers passing game have been hot recently, with Keenan Allen finally making a statistical jump—he had 121 yards and two touchdowns against Baltimore, Royal consistently finding the end zone, Antonio Gates moving the chains and Mathews plowing through linebackers. The 13-point struggle versus the Raiders in Week 11 seems like a long time ago.
However, San Diego’s success with scoring on long, chain-moving drives might come to a screeching halt against the Patriots defense.
New England’s defense, while not exactly shutdown, is very good in the red zone. Against one of the league’s best offenses in Green Bay, the Patriots put the clamps on Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy when they were near the goal line.
| Attempts | Yards | Other | |
| Passing | 9 (2 completions) | 17 | 39.6 passer rating |
| Rushing | 5 | 3 | 1.67 yards per carry |
The Patriots have the proper personnel to give the Chargers similar fits in close quarters. Instead of San Diego finishing with a one-yard Royal touchdown catch, they would be best served finishing with a 25-yard touchdown from Malcom Floyd or Ladarius Green.
Floyd and Green are usually role players, but they will have to be prepared for big roles in this game. Allen could have a quiet outing, with Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis likely to shadow him the whole time. Revis has been great this season, and the Patriots being fifth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, per Football Outsiders, backs that up. Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty are good at sniffing out screens and should fare well versus Royal.
The Chargers won’t have it easy running goal-line plunges with Mathews, either. The running lanes will be clogged with center Chris Watt injured. Patriots Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork will embarrass whichever journeyman plays center Sunday.
With all of these matchups in the Patriots' favor, it’s time for Floyd or Green to explode. The best way to remedy not finishing near the goal line is to not run any plays in the red zone—the Chargers can do just that with these two explosive, tall pass-catchers.
Floyd is having a nice comeback season with nearly 700 yards receiving and four touchdowns. The 6’5” deep threat will likely be covered by cornerback Brandon Browner, who measures in at 6’4”. Will he be able to adjust without his usual height advantage?
In a word, yes. Floyd isn’t exclusively a size/speed receiver—he has good hands and is underrated as a route-runner. He proved this versus the 6’3” Sean Smith and the Chiefs in Week 7. Let’s take a look.
Smith is no slouch, either—he is sixth among cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’ pass coverage ratings (subscription required). Browner has not been as good this season, drawing numerous penalties and struggling versus quickness. Floyd will have a monster game by matchup advantage and necessity.
Green has rarely been used by the Chargers as of late, but his 6’6” frame and excellent wheels make him a prime candidate to go off against the Patriots’ slower linebackers and safeties. New England is 30th in DVOA this season covering tight ends, per Football Outsiders.
Green will probably see some time against safeties McCourty and Chung since guys like Dont’a Hightower won’t stand a chance. That opens up space for the rest of the Chargers receivers. This all assumes Green will get a lot of snaps, which isn’t a guarantee. Gates should see his targets, but the Patriots would fare better against his savvy, chain-moving style.
If the Chargers can get some big-play touchdowns—much like the Packers did in their win—they will be in good shape. Those types of plays will keep the game close and prevent the defense from being subjected to the Patriots’ draining game of keep away. That gives defensive end Corey Liuget more opportunities to sack Brady.
Defensive Key to the Game: Prevent Brady from extending the play
The Patriots have always had a reputation for strong offensive line play. They aren’t living up to that this season.
While New England may be performing fine in run blocking, pass protection is a different story. The Patriots have allowed the fourth fewest sacks in football, which is good. But that statistic can mainly be attributed to Brady’s brilliance rather than line play—they are the third-worst team in pass-blocking. This matchup might be the perfect remedy for a Chargers defense struggling to get to the quarterback.
Liuget in particular has a salivating matchup—left guard Dan Connolly has been the weak link of the Patriots line this season. He was beat for a sack by Mike Daniels at Green Bay, which sealed the game for the Packers. Liuget is much more talented than Daniels and should give Connolly fits with his explosiveness.
Even if the Patriots scheme around Liuget, the rest of the pass rush should have plenty of time to get to Brady. Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers will see a lot of time on the rising Brandon LaFell a week after shutting down Steve Smith. The oft-burned Shareece Wright will have to cover Julian Edelman, but Edelman is banged up and not at 100 percent. Weddle will fill in the blank spaces.
The lack of reliable targets—the exception being Gronkowski, destroyer of worlds—will create some difficult situations for Brady. He’ll need to extend more plays than he’d like. That is an ideal situation for Liuget and the rest of the front seven.
The Chargers defense as a whole was not good versus the Ravens last week—the unit did not even register a hit on Joe Flacco, according to ESPN. However, it should have an easier time against a less-dominant offensive line.
Will the Chargers finally get to the quarterback and finish the play? It’s possible; they just have to be aware of Brady’s pocket wizardry and capitalize when he can’t pull the trigger. The Broncos’ only sack on Brady in Week 9 is a good blueprint to follow.
Brady is a future Hall of Fame quarterback for a reason, so he will make some ridiculous plays when the Chargers think they have it in the bag. They just have to make him look human when the structure around him is collapsing. There is no golden play here—it’s all about the execution.
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