College Football Playoff 2014: Breaking Down Format and Bowl Predictions
Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff committee told fans what most already knew: The final four are set—at least, they appear to be as long as everyone gets out of conference championship weekend unscathed.
That'll be much easier said than done.
Sitting at the top for the third straight week were No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Oregon. No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Florida State flip-flopped this week, but the path is still clear for a playoff berth. Win their respective conference titles, and there is no way the committee can hold them out. Each have matchups against ranked opponents and in some cases (mainly Florida State) will be earning their most impressive victory of the season this weekend.
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TCU, despite the move upward, sits in the most precarious position. The Horned Frogs have the easiest game of any Top Six team this weekend, closing their regular season against lowly Iowa State. Outside an apocalypse wiping out the entire football team and forcing a forfeit, TCU is going to win; the only question is by how much.
Seemingly meaningless style points could matter come Sunday. With Baylor facing off against Kansas State and Ohio State taking on Wisconsin, the two other one-loss teams on the fringes have one more chance to leave a lasting impression.
How will the committee decide on that fourth team? Here's a look at how this process plays out.
College Football Committee Selection Process
As we all should know by now, the selection committee consists of 12 members. Originally there were 13, but Archie Manning recused himself for one year to undergo back surgery. Most of the members are or were affiliated with major college athletics—former and current athletic directors, reporters, etc. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is the only member without such experience.
The committee will meet following Saturday's games with two tasks in mind: finding the four playoff teams and filling the remaining high-profile bowls, formerly known as BCS contests.
The four pillars for playoff teams are as follows: championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head record and comparative outcomes of common opponents. We've already seen three of those four in action. The Big 12 says it'll present Baylor and TCU as co-champions if both win this week, making it unlikely anything changes at the top.
| Dec. 31 | Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl | At Large vs. At Large |
| Dec. 31 | Vizio Fiesta Bowl | At Large vs. At Large |
| Dec. 31 | Orange Bowl | ACC vs. Big Ten / SEC / Notre Dame |
| Jan. 1 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic | At Large vs. At Large |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Semifinalist 1 vs. Semifinalist 2 |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | Semifinalist 3 vs. Semifinalist 4 |
| Jan. 12 | National Championship Game | Finalist vs. Finalist |
The remaining bowl games—this season, the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta and Peach—are surprisingly a bit more complicated. The Orange Bowl has an affiliation with the ACC, assuming its champion is not in the College Football Playoff. It will also take the best of a threesome headlined by the second-ranked team in the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame (NOT Notre Dame this season).
The Cotton, Peach and Fiesta Bowls are at the discretion of the committee. Each will pit at-large teams from Power Five conferences, very likely in some predetermined order. The Top 25 should offer a generalized look at how this will play out, though one or two teams could be massaged in to avoid any accusations of favoritism.
Either way, take a glimpse at the final Top 15. Those will be the teams playing in high-profile contests.
Playoff Predictions
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 TCU
The most interesting thing I can say here is that Baylor has a chance. The Bears' head-to-head victory has not made an iota of an impact so far with the committee; they've been behind TCU every step of the way. At multiple points, the two Big 12 outfits were separated by six spots despite Baylor upending TCU in Waco.
But nothing is out of the question. TCU had a close call a few weeks ago against Kansas. A similar effort at home against Iowa State would be enough to make the committee rethink its choice—especially if Baylor looks strong against Kansas State. The best way for Bryce Petty and Co. to re-enter the conversation is by blowing out the Wildcats, who were trounced last month at TCU.
Wins over Kansas State, TCU and Oklahoma suddenly make Baylor's strength of schedule not look so dreadful.
"It is an incredible platform for us to make our case," Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw told reporters. "We would be a Big 12 co-champion with a tiebreaker over TCU. It would give us three top-15-quality wins. We would have the strongest resume among those under consideration."
We can probably rule out Ohio State. It's probably unfair to write the Buckeyes off simply because J.T. Barrett was injured, but the tiebreakers in these cases are minuscule. Cardale Jones won't have enough of a sample size to convince the committee he's capable keeping Ohio State's offense near the top of the country. The expected drop-off alone from Barrett, a fringe Heisman candidate, to Jones, a complete unknown, is too much to trust against teams with equally strong resumes.
Urban Meyer will probably need two teams to go down this weekend to have a shot at the national title for a third straight year.
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
Nothing much to examine here. Assuming Alabama, Oregon and Florida State each win Saturday, this should be the way it plays out. They're each playing teams in a relatively similar strata, and the difference between a No. 2 and a No. 3 seed is semantics. Neither Oregon nor Florida State will have a home-field advantage, and a one-loss Alabama team isn't budging from the No. 1 seed.
Florida State, still undefeated and heading into its toughest game of the season, probably deserves the No. 3 slot over TCU if it beats Georgia Tech. The Seminoles having to play a scary-good Oregon offense is already punishment enough for their "failure" to win each of their games by enough points. Forcing them to go against Alabama and playing them behind three one-loss teams feels like a step too far.
The Ducks, ironically enough, may be the Top Four team most likely to lose this weekend. They've already fallen to Arizona. In Eugene. The Wildcats failed to use that win as a springboard, losing two of their next three games, but have righted the ship to win their final four contests. The last two have come against ranked opponents.
Arizona has beaten Oregon in their last two matchups, including a 42-16 drubbing last season at home. Far be it from me to bet against Marcus Mariota this season. It'll just be a much closer game than some are expecting.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
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