Should Broncos Be Worried About Off Game by Peyton Manning vs. Chiefs?
Peyton Manning was just off in the Week 13 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2014, Manning had been averaging over 323 passing yards per game. He got about half that this time around against the Chiefs.
Manning finished the game with only 179 yards passing on 17-of-34 passing. His 50 percent completion percentage was the lowest of this season, and the lowest total he’s had since the Week 12 game against the New England Patriots in 2013.
During the broadcast, NBC’s legendary broadcaster Al Michaels described the conditions as “ice fishing weather.” Needless to say, it wasn’t a balmy night at Arrowhead Stadium. The temperature at kickoff was 23 degrees, and it got colder as the game went on.
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Taking a look at the split stats, you can see how Manning failed to connect on multiple passes in the second half.
| Quarter | Comp | Att | Yds | TD | Rating |
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 141.7 |
| 2 | 7 | 12 | 64 | 0 | 72.9 |
| 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 39.6 |
| 4 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 43.8 |
Should the team (and Broncos fans) be worried about Manning’s poor performance versus the Chiefs? Let’s take a look.
Cold Temperatures
There’s no denying that Manning struggles when the temperature drops. When the temperature dips below 40 degrees, Manning has an 8-11 record as a starter, according to an article written by ESPN Stats & Info before last year’s Super Bowl.
That record got pushed to 9-11 with the Broncos' win on the road in Kansas City in Week 13, but the passing game did not look like it usually does.
Broncos head coach John Fox talked about the tough conditions after the game. “Our players responded and did an outstanding job obviously again coming here tonight, we knew it was going to be tough conditions weather wise and we were able to lead with the run game and block at the line, tight ends we all very nice and ran the ball very hard and very effectively.”
As the calendar changes over to December and January, the Broncos are going to be in a few cold-weather games. Battling the elements is something every team must do this time of year, and the Broncos were able to win even though they didn’t get a ton of help from the passing game.
Wind
The winds in Kansas City certainly altered the passing game for both teams in Week 13. It wasn’t a good night to fill the air with footballs, as winds were gusting over 20 mph.
On Tuesday, I interviewed Mike Klis, from the Denver Post, on my ESPN Radio show in Denver. During the interview, I asked Klis if he had any concerns about Manning’s lackluster performance.
“Listen, that environment…the temperatures…it was terrible passing conditions. It was very windy down there on the field, and it was cold. I think it was really about the conditions more than anything else. The wind was affecting him. He’s fine physically.”
The film shows that Manning had good pass placement on some throws. Others were caught in the wind and sailed high. In fact, most of Manning’s off-target throws were too high.
Passes that sail are generally caused by one of two things: bad mechanics (not following through or stepping into your throw) or wind. Manning is one of the most mechanically sound quarterbacks in NFL history, so you can do the math here.
This picture shows an overthrown pass to rookie Cody Latimer down the right sideline. The pass just got away from Manning a little bit, and it was out of Latimer's reach. Had he been on point, Latimer likely scores on that play:
When the wind isn’t gusting, Manning’s arm is more than fine—and it could be stronger than it was last year. Demaryius Thomas told me in minicamp that he was dropping/double-clutching some passes because Manning’s velocity was improved.
Batted Passes
The Chiefs defense can get after the quarterback. They came into the game against the Broncos with 31 sacks in 2014, a mark that ranks in the top 10 this season.
They were only able to sack Manning one time on Sunday night because the veteran quarterback gets rid of the ball so quickly. Manning has the second-shortest time in the pocket in the NFL at 2.14 seconds (Andy Dalton 2.13).
When the Chiefs realized they weren’t going to get to Manning, they starting knocking down passes and clogging up passing lanes—especially when the Broncos were in the red zone.
Here we see linebacker Justin Houston time his jump perfectly to knock down a would-be touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas. Houston finished the game with two deflected passes:
The Broncos offensive line needs to make sure they do a better job of preventing defenders from leaping to knock down passes. Any sort of batted ball can quickly turn into an interception.
Near Interceptions
The game against the Chiefs could have been worse for Manning. There were a couple of passes that were nearly picked off by the Chiefs defense.
Here we see a play where Chiefs defensive back Ron Parker is ready to pick off a pass to the middle of the field. Emmanuel Sanders does a great job of playing defensive back and knocking the ball away:
Again, Sanders needs to play defensive back on this play. The pass was to the outside and on point, but rookie cornerback Phillip Gaines jumps the route to snare the ball. Sanders reaches over him as the pass is coming in, and he prevents the interception:
The Chiefs defense was doing a good job of holding the Broncos offense to field goals in the second half. One or two of these passes being picked off could have changed the momentum of the game.
Summary
The Broncos (and Broncos fans) should not be worried about Manning after his off game against the Chiefs. The team was able to triumph against their division rival even though Manning didn’t have a banner day.
The cold weather and wind at Arrowhead certainly impacted Manning’s passing statistics. With the playoffs approaching, Denver is likely to see these type of conditions again. With more emphasis on a power running attack, Denver is capable of winning regardless of the conditions they face.
Manning feels good about the direction of this team after two wins in a row over quality opponents.
“We certainly answered the challenge the last two weeks against two really good opponents. I was kind of glad one was at home and one was on the road. We haven’t played particularly well on the road, so it was good to get this road victory tonight and keep that going the rest of the way.”
If the team works to cut down on the batted passes at the line of scrimmage and near interceptions down the field, they should be able to be more efficient through the air the next time they play in bad weather.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.
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