College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Selection Committee Top 25 for Week 15

The College Football Playoff Top Four had a major change in Week 15.

TCU, buoyed by Mississippi State's loss at rival Ole Miss, has jumped to No. 3 ahead of No. 4 Florida State. Alabama is No. 1 for the third straight week, followed by Oregon.

As for the two squads jockeying for position behind the Top Four, here is how Ohio State and Baylor landed, along with the remainder of the Top 25:

With only one week to go before the committee makes its final selections, it appears we have a pretty good outlook on where teams stand. The Bulldogs' surprising road loss at Ole Miss knocked out the biggest potential source of controversy.  

It would have seemed curious to have a one-loss SEC team on the outside looking in, but the committee was facing a Catch-22 with three potential conference champions sitting right behind.

As it stands now, though, it's hard to see the committee changing its mind if each of the top six comes away with a victory. TCU has consistently been ranked ahead of Baylor from the outset of these rankings, and the Horned Frogs have looked like the far superior team of late. Their 48-10 thrashing of Texas in Austin came two days before Baylor needed to stop Texas Tech from converting a two-point conversion to escape with a 48-46 win at AT&T Stadium.

The Bears have looked less than stellar in two straight home games following their 48-14 win over Oklahoma. Their season-closing game against Kansas State will provide a chance for a resume-solidifying victory, and some have wondered if Baylor's head-to-head victory over TCU will play a factor in the final decision.

Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw told reporters the head-to-head win gives the Bears the strongest resume among one-loss teams.

"It is an incredible platform for us to make our case," McCaw said. "We would be a Big 12 co-champion with a tiebreaker over TCU. It would give us three top-15-quality wins. We would have the strongest resume among those under consideration."

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said Monday the conference would present the two teams as co-champions should they both be victorious this weekend. That means the decision will ultimately be up to the committee about which of the two is more deserving. TCU plays 2-9 Iowa State this weekend, so style points will likely be of the essence.

Not mentioned much in this equation is Ohio State, which may have been dealt a fatal blow over the weekend through no fault of its own. Quarterback J.T. Barrett suffered a fractured right ankle in last Saturday's 42-28 win over Michigan that will keep him out the remainder of the season. Cardale Jones, the Buckeyes' third-string quarterback at the beginning of 2014, will take over for the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin this Saturday.

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

It's impossible to tell how big the drop from Barrett to Jones would be over the long term, which makes the committee's job even more difficult. In theory, it's supposed to choose college football's four best teams, via a combination of resume, win-loss record and talent. We've seen injuries in the past affect seeding in the NCAA basketball tournament; odds are we'll see the same logic play out here.

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer, as one would expect, sees it differently. The third-year Buckeyes coach told reporters it would be "wrong" if his team was downgraded due to Barrett's injury and said it should be a testament to his program's depth.

“You lose one Heisman Trophy candidate before the season starts, and then another guy in game (12) who’s also a Heisman candidate,” Meyer said. “That’s a positive that your team can still function. It tells you about the talent and depth on your team.”

Meyer may have a point about his squad's depth, but it's unlikely to matter. Only losses by Baylor and TCU would likely send the Buckeyes to the playoffs—or some other two-team combination.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

For Alabama, Oregon and Florida State, the journey is self-explanatory: Win and you're in. Each of the three teams has a ranked opponent on its slate and should advance to the playoffs regardless of the final score.

Florida State would actually be earning its best win of the season should it get past Georgia Tech in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets showed their strength their last two games, blowing out Clemson and earning an impressive road takedown of rival Georgia. 

Alabama probably caught a break by facing a Missouri team that's lucked into a weak schedule, but the Tide have faced a gauntlet down the stretch. The Tigers will be their fourth ranked team in their last five games. 

Oregon may actually be the team most prone to being upset, with Arizona's high-powered offense advancing to the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Wildcats represent the Ducks' lone loss of the season, a 31-24 thriller in October. 

We'll just have to see how it all plays out. With the committee setting the tone Tuesday night, each of the six teams in contention knows the task ahead.

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