5 Bold Predictions for New England Patriots' Week 14 Matchup

Despite seeing their seven-game winning streak snapped at Lambeau Field, the outlook surrounding the New England Patriots hasn't really changed.  The Pats still hold the inside track to home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and though the Green Bay Packers were able to poke some holes, New England emerged from the loss without any pressing long-term concerns.

Nevertheless, while the Week 13 defeat was understandable, the Patriots cannot afford a second consecutive loss against the San Diego Chargers.  Though the Chargers have struggled at times amid injuries, Philip Rivers and Co. have steadied the ship with three straight wins to place themselves at the head of the AFC wild-card smorgasbord.  Going into Qualcomm Stadium and defeating the Bolts in prime time is a difficult task for any team, especially one playing its third road contest in four weeks like the Patriots.

As one of the league's most amorphous week-to-week teams, the Pats are always good for a surprise every week.  While pinpointing those wrinkles may be difficult, we can infer what type of game plan Bill Belichick may implement based on the early read of how the Pats and Chargers match up.

Thus, honing in on Sunday's game, let's take a look at how the Patriots may try to snap their brief skid.

Shane Vereen Leads the RBs in Touches

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Predicting the Patriots backfield distribution has essentially been a glorified game of roulette this season.  Vereen has led all New England backs in snaps, playing 53.4 percent, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).  However, that hasn't necessarily manifested itself in touches, as Vereen's 125 touches rank 37th among running backs this year, according to Pro-Football-Reference.

But against a Chargers defense that has struggled to cover backs, expect that number to rise.  San Diego's base defense is getting healthier, with starting linebackers Manti Te'o and Melvin Ingram returning from significant injuries in recent weeks.  The weakness in San Diego's defense lies in the secondary, which took a huge hit when impressive rookie corner Jason Verrett went on injured reserve.

Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Chargers rank 24th in terms of covering opposing running backs in the passing game.  This might be a good week to copy and paste the Week 12 game plan against the Detroit Lions, in which New England utilized 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) from shotgun spread formations to expose the lack of speed in the Lions' back seven.

The Pats would happily match Vereen against inside linebackers Andrew Gachkar and Donald Butler, or even dimeback Jahleel Addae.  The Pats got away from the running back screen game last week after utilizing it liberally against the Lions, but expect a return to that usage against San Diego.  For flummoxed fantasy football owners, look for Week 14 to represent a Vereen week in the backfield.

Malcolm Butler Is the Nickel Corner

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Though the Patriots secondary does not have many weaknesses, Aaron Rodgers displayed what an exemplary passing attack can do when it possesses viable third and fourth options.  Philip Rivers is surely salivating from that film, as the likes of Malcolm Floyd and Eddie Royal could receive increased attention in San Diego's offensive game plan.

Belichick never really concocted an answer against the Green Bay Packers, throwing various combinations of Logan Ryan, Kyle Arrington and Alfonzo Dennard into the game.  Arrington would be the logical solution to return to his customary role in the slot, but he has been dinged up each of the last two games and did not play any defensive snaps after injuring himself last week.

Though he was available on special teams, it seems reasonable that Arrington may be limited after leaving two consecutive contests.  In that instance, the Patriots may turn back to Malcolm Butler, who has held his own in limited reps. 

Butler has been a healthy scratch the past two weeks in favor of Dennard, but perhaps Belichick will consider moving the undrafted rookie back ahead of the disappointing Dennard.  Butler's ball skills were evident during the preseason, and he has accrued five pass deflections on just 18 targets this season.

At the very least, Butler possesses fearless physicality to press at the line, a trait that the Patriots have emphasized from their corners this season.  The nickelback will play nearly every snap against San Diego's spread attack, so if Arrington is still limited, look for Butler to receive another shot at extended action.

Danny Amendola Plays Meaningful Snaps

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Patriots fans may cringe at the thought of this prediction coming to fruition.  It's indisputable that Amendola has been a massive disappointment on offense this season, as he is essentially the sixth option in the passing game.  For a player with his contract, that likely spells a pay cut or release in the offseason.

But the Pats are only concerned with Sunday at the moment, and with Julian Edelman hobbled, Amendola could be in line for increased snaps.  Edelman appeared to reaggravate a thigh injury he initially suffered in Week 11, and though he gritted through the end of the Packers game, it seems unlikely that he'll turn in his typical ironman effort on Sunday.

That would put Amendola in line to take a few increased reps in Edelman's flanker role.  Though his role has declined over the last three weeks, Amendola did play over 50 percent of the snaps against both Chicago and Denver—games in which the Pats sought to spread things out.  Tim Wright may eat into some snaps if the Pats utilize a similar game plan this week, but Amendola figures to receive a bump from his recent meager totals.

For what it's worth, he should receive juicy opportunities against the Chargers secondary.  San Diego figures to stick top corner Brandon Flowers on either Julian Edelman or Brandon LaFell, which could leave Amendola to face the likes of Shareece Wright, Stevie Williams or the aforementioned Jahleel Addae.  Although it is inconceivable that he will be a featured player in New England's game plan, Amendola also should not be a fringe player this week, given the potential matchups.

Patriots Defense Notches at Least 5 Sacks

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The Patriots have reached this benchmark just twice this season—in Week 6 against the Buffalo Bills and Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings.  With Chandler Jones still seemingly unlikely to play this week, it might be optimistic to expect New England to replicate those early-season highs, especially on the heels of last week's woeful pass rush.

However, the Chargers' injury-riddled offensive line could be the antidote to New England's pressure woes.  San Diego could be on its fifth center of the year in Trevor Robinson, which is the type of turnover that practically screams for the Pats to utilize a bevy of A-gap and stunt blitzes to test the Chargers' interior line communication. 

Indeed, after playing an uncharacteristically conservative brand of coverage against Rodgers last week, the Pats might want to ratchet up the pressure.  Rivers did excel against the blitz last week, completing 16 of 18 passes for a whopping 147.0 quarterback rating.  However, whereas the Baltimore Ravens did not have the secondary personnel to guard San Diego's West Coast concepts, the Pats press coverage could be the perfect complement to a more aggressive pressure scheme.

As such, the Chargers could be vulnerable, especially if the Patriots can bottle up the running game.  Five sacks is a lofty total to reach based on New England's current personnel, but at the very least, expect much better pressure on Sunday.

Pats Win...If Defense Wins on 3rd Down

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Ultimately, the formula for the Pats is the same as when facing any elite quarterback.  Last week, the Packers converted 10 of 17 third-down chances to control possession and dictate the game's rhythm.  Though the Pats did well to force Green Bay into so many third downs, New England must cash in this week with a greater percentage of stops.

Rivers and the Chargers offense present just as difficult a challenge.  San Diego ranks third in the league with an astounding 47.5 percent third-down conversion rate.  This is essentially a carryover from last season, as the Chargers ranked second at 47.4 percent.

Unlike last season, though, San Diego isn't necessarily bumping that conversion rate with early-down success.  According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chargers face an average distance of 7.11 yards to go on third down, a middling 14th-best in the league.  Conversely, San Diego needed just 6.3 yards to go in 2013, the second-shortest distance in the league.

All this suggests that the Chargers may be in for some regression, so long as they come up against an opponent who is capable of exploiting 3rd-and-long opportunities.  The Patriots are exactly the type of defense that thrives on clear passing situations.  In 3rd-and-7 or longer, the Pats have allowed opponents to convert at a woeful 23.2 percent clip, the fourth-best mark in the league.

Thus, the Chargers seem unlikely to continue pulling third-down rabbits out of their hat if the Patriots can force them into their customarily long down-and-distance situations.  By limiting possession time, the Pats can flip last week's script and control the game—the surest method for starting a new win streak.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).