Big Ten Championship 2014: Preview, Predictions for Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
On the surface, a Big Ten Championship matchup between Ohio State and Wisconsin would have surprised nobody heading into the season.
However, nobody would have expected the Buckeyes to be down to their third-string quarterback by the time the game rolled around.
Ohio State has beaten Wisconsin six of the past seven meetings, although Terrelle Pryor or Braxton Miller won’t be walking through the door for the Buckeyes. It will be up to Cardale Jones to lead the Scarlet and Gray against the Badgers with the conference title and a potential College Football Playoff spot on the line.
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Ohio State will also be looking for some redemption for last season’s loss to Michigan State in Indianapolis. A spot in the national championship was at stake last year, but the Buckeyes came out tight. Before they knew it, they were down 17-0.
Although they came back to take the lead, they fell short when the pressure was at its highest in the final minutes.
This year’s game gives Ohio State its one chance to prove to the selection committee that it is still capable of being one of the best teams in the nation with Jones under center instead of the injured Miller or J.T. Barrett.
Barrett’s broken ankle, suffered in the win against Michigan, was the latest blow to a team that has already lost Miller, Noah Spence, Dontre Wilson and Rod Smith for various reasons. Miller was on the short list of Heisman Trophy candidates before the season, and Barrett was on the way to an invitation to New York as a finalist before going down.
What’s more, Spence was arguably the best defensive lineman on a team that includes Joey Bosa, and Wilson is a speedster who gives the Buckeyes' offense and return game an extra dimension. Ohio State fans would be forgiven if they felt like the latest developments simply weren’t fair.
Buckeyes fans looking for some hope in the light of the latest injuries should point to these updates and quotes from Urban Meyer regarding Jones, via Jeff Svoboda of Buckeye Sports Bulletin, Patrick Maks of Eleven Warriors and Dave Biddle of Bucknuts.com:
Like Miller and Barrett, Jones is a dual-threat quarterback who has averaged 7.9 yards per carry this season in limited chances. Look for him to use his legs on a number of occasions Saturday.
A third-string quarterback is not the only thing that should have Ohio State concerned for this game.
Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon is arguably the best player in the nation this side of Marcus Mariota and has 2,260 rushing yards and 29 total touchdowns. He topped 100 yards rushing in every single game this year except the contest against Western Illinois in September. He also topped 200 yards five different times and tallied a ridiculous 408 yards and four touchdowns in three quarters against Nebraska.
Gordon gets a shot at an Ohio State defense that gave up 228 rushing yards to Indiana’s Tevin Coleman and 145 rushing yards to Minnesota’s David Cobb in two of the last three games. A big day against one of the nation’s highest-ranked teams on a national, prime-time stage could propel Gordon right to the top of the Heisman Trophy race.
The good news for the porous Ohio State run defense is that there is precedent for Gordon to go off—and for the Badgers to still lose the game.
He finished with 140 rushing yards and a touchdown in the loss to LSU, although he only saw 16 carries. The Badgers would have won that game if Gordon had been on the field more down the stretch after he helped them get a big early lead.
Gordon also tallied 259 rushing yards and a touchdown against Northwestern, even though Wisconsin lost.
Even if Gordon has a big day, the Buckeyes can still win if their own skill players step up in Barrett’s absence.
Between Ezekiel Elliott, Jalin Marshall, Michael Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Evan Spencer, Devin Smith and Jeff Heuerman, Ohio State has all kinds of speed that will be unleashed on the turf in Indianapolis. There will be no weather to slow these players down, and the Badgers will have trouble containing them all for four quarters.
The Buckeyes are also 12th in the nation in rushing yards per game behind a much-improved offensive line and Elliott’s legs, so look for a heavy dose of the running game in Barrett’s absence.
Still, that Ohio State defense is going to be the key to the game because it is difficult to imagine the Buckeyes matching their 44.1 points-per-game average.
The Buckeyes don’t have to pitch a shutout, but they need to give the offensive skill players a chance. Along those lines, Marshall’s punt returning will be critical for field-position purposes. He has experienced some fumbling issues this year, but when he does get his hands on it, he can break a game open with a big return, like he did against Indiana.
The Badgers have seen big games from Gordon before, and still lost. That will happen once again on Saturday, as the Buckeyes' skill position players step up without Barrett and make a loud statement to the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 24
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