Without DeMar DeRozan, Upstart Toronto Raptors Facing Toughest Test Yet
If nothing else, surviving 20 years of nearly constant basketball famine makes you more thankful for the hard-fought feast.
Case in point: The Toronto Raptors, who have ridden the blistering backcourt talents of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to the best start in franchise history—much to the delight of their long-suffering fans.
Now, with DeRozan expected to miss at least a month with a torn tendon in his groin, per Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, Toronto is about to face its toughest test yet.
You can’t ignore the 19.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists, of course. But DeRozan’s impact goes well beyond pure production.
According to NBA.com (media stats require a subscription), the Raptors are registering a plus-minus of plus-10.3 with DeRozan on the floor. Given Toronto’s dominance early in the season, that might not sound especially impressive.
Indeed, the real devil is even further in the details.
"With DeRozan in the lineup, the Raptors rank second in the league with 29.4 attempts per game,” writes Raptors HQ’s Steven Lebron. “While Lou Williams, Terrence Ross and Greivis Vasquez can replace the point production, they'll be doing it in a different manner as DeRozan.”
Lebron’s analysis points to the palpable silver lining of DeRozan’s injury: Despite losing perhaps their biggest gun, the Raptors—currently ranked sixth in terms of raw production—still have plenty of weapons in the armory.
“We gotta play, it’s next man up,” Lowry told SportsNet’s Steven Loung. “It’s a team. It’s not about one guy, it’s about every individual. So if anybody goes down, the next guy has gotta step up.”
Head coach Dwane Casey echoed his point guard’s sentiments, telling Loung, “It’s some big shoes to fill, but the next guy has got to be ready to step up and take up the slack.”
Still, replacing DeRozan’s two-way skills isn’t merely a matter of plugging and shuffling. If anything, his loss compels Casey to recalibrate his offense along more nuanced lines. From Zarrar Siddiqi of Raptors Republic:
"DeRozan is the initiator of enough possessions that his absence will force Dwane Casey into a more egalitarian offense predicated on motion rather than individual capability. Having DeRozan coming off double-screens for catch-and-shoots, setting up entire plays just so he can get a proper hand-off, and isolating him on the block has become an intrinsic part of the Raptors offense. Taking a player of his magnitude out will result in structural changes because this team, despite boasting an impressive record, isn’t yet as fluid offensively as last year’s, where parts were almost interchangeable.
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Siddiqi cites Terrence Ross in particular as someone from whom Toronto will need quite the leap—stylistically as well as statistically—if it hopes to remain atop the Atlantic Division heap.
Thus far, Ross’ production hasn’t quite seen the spike Raptors fans were hoping for, particularly for a historically leap-friendly third season.
| Season | Points | TS% | 3P% | PER |
| 2012-13 | 6.4 | 10.4 | .332 | .491 |
| 2013-14 | 10.9 | 12.0 | .395 | .553 |
| 2014-15 | 10.7 | 13.4 | .419 | .572 |
Despite the early flatlining, Ross remains an integral part of the Toronto puzzle, both now and moving forward. Whether he can augment his game to become a kind of DeRozan facsimile in the latter’s absence, however, seems unlikely. Ditto anyone else currently on the Raptors roster.
The good news: Situated as it is in the worst division in one of the weakest conferences in history, in the long term Toronto won’t suffer any more than a marginal setback.
Assuming the timetable stands pat, the Raptors will weather 15 games sans the services of their All-Star guard. Of those, only six will come against teams currently over .500. Nine of those 15, however, will be away from the friendly confines of the Air Canada Centre.
A cupcake walk it is not. But nor is it the kind of gruesome gauntlet that can derail a season—particularly considering the team’s beastly balance. To wit: As of November 30, the Raptors ranked second in the NBA in offensive efficiency (110.7) and ninth in defense (100.9), making them one of just four teams currently slotted in the top 10 in both categories.
Such statistical dominance is anything but the product of a singular star, of course. Lowry? He’s proving the term “career year” needn’t be a singular event. Ross? Perhaps DeRozan’s absence will prove long enough for him to shine. Jonas Valanciunas? As with Ross, a leap often seems more a matter of “when” than “if.”
Earlier in the season, it was worth wondering whether Toronto’s incendiary start might not be fool’s gold—gaudy out-of-the-gate greatness doomed to dive back screamingly toward the mean.
Now, with nearly a quarter of the season past and the Raps in cool control of their divisional domain, Dwane Casey and Co. are looking more and more like something fans have seldom seen: legitimate conference contenders.
Losing your team’s most explosive scorer and foremost perimeter defender is never a pleasant part of any script. But for a franchise so long mired in melancholy endings, rallying your cast to cover for the star is a penance to pay for a chance at an all-time happy one.
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