Fantasy Football Week 13: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action

Fantasy football and the NFL don't always go according to plan or expectations. For example, you see an aerial assault between future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

We see a battle of the ground games. One of us will be wrong.

Sure, Brady and Rodgers could push the highest total on the board in Las Vegas over its current number of 58, but the matchups inside this game suggest busy days on the ground of playing keep-away. That has been in the Bill Belichick game plan before. It suits the Packers' Eddie Lacy, too.

This is Bleacher Report's Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action, where we review the Week 13's top-100 rankings, injury report, starts, sits, sleepers, busts and last-minute waiver options. It is a definitive guide to setting your lineups in the final regular-season games of standard fantasy leagues.

Also, if the fantasy analysis isn't enough, you can reference Michael Schottey's must-read NFL-based Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action.

Overall Rankings

Everyone will be watching Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers when the New England Patriots lock up with the Green Bay Packers on Sunday evening. That is what happens when the game is listed with a total of 58 by oddsmakers at OddsShark.com.

We probably all should be paying more attention to the likes of Eddie Lacy and LeGarrette Blount.

As much as both quarterbacks can get the ball downfield, this matchup lines up to be a classic battle in the trenches. The Packers have the third-worst run defense in football, and both offenses are capable in the power-running game.

The Boston Herald's Jeff Howe reported it sounded as if the Pats offensive linemen had the Packers run defense struggles "drilled into their heads," because they were quick to dismiss them, as left tackle Nate Solder did:

"

I don't think stats matter. We have to be prepared for whatever they're going to bring. We know they are capable of being a great defense. They do some good things. We need to go up there and bring our best game.

"

Right guard Ryan Wendell added, "Sometimes, those numbers aren't as accurate. From what I've seen on film, they can stop the run."

The Herald's Howe expects, like us, for the Pats to attack this game on the ground:

"

The recipe, really, should be to just keep chipping away just as the Patriots did in Week 11 against the Colts when they amassed 40 carries for 250 yards (excluding quarterback kneel-downs) and four touchdowns. By comparison, the Colts entered the game with the ninth-best run defense.

"

So, watch Brady and Rodgers all night. Everyone will. Start all of their primary fantasy targets—Rob Gronkowski, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb; the latter two have to face the NFL's best corner tandem in Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. But, we will be watching Lacy, Blount, Shane Vereen and Jonas Gray. Whichever power back gets the best of the opposing defense will truly decide the game and win the day for fantasy owners.

We are fairly confident the Pats will stick with the veteran Blount as their ground-and-pound back over Gray. We list Lacy No. 4 among the top 100 plays for Week 13 at Bleacher Report and Blount at No. 56. Note: Gray does not appear.

Week 13 Top 100 - Eric Mack

Rank	Flex Rankings	Team	Opponent	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Andrew Luck	IND	vs. Was	1	0
2	Peyton Manning	DEN	at KC	3	+1
3	DeMarco Murray	DAL	vs. Phi	4	+1
4	Eddie Lacy	GB	vs. NE	21	+17
5	LeSean McCoy	PHI	at Dal	26	+21
6	Jamaal Charles	KC	vs. Den	10	+4
7	Arian Foster	HOU	vs. Ten	25	+18
8	Antonio Brown	PIT	vs. NO	28	+20
9	Dez Bryant	DAL	vs. Phi	24	+15
10	Matt Forte	CHI	at Det	19	+9
11	Aaron Rodgers	GB	vs. NE	2	-9
12	Drew Brees	NO	at Pit	8	-4
13	Jimmy Graham	NO	at Pit	41	+28
14	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	at KC	30	+16
15	Rob Gronkowski	NE	at GB	39	+24
16	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	vs. NO	6	-10
17	Josh Gordon	CLE	at Buf	42	+25
18	Tom Brady	NE	at GB	5	-13
19	Calvin Johnson	DET	vs. Chi	32	+13
20	A.J. Green	CIN	at TB	38	+18
21	Julio Jones	ATL	vs. Ari	53	+32
22	Andre Ellington	ARI	at Atl	33	+11
23	T.Y. Hilton	IND	vs. Was	44	+21
24	Tony Romo	DAL	vs. Phi	7	-17
25	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	vs. NO	9	-16
26	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	at KC	45	+19
27	Odell Beckham	NYG	at Jac	48	+21
28	Jordy Nelson	GB	vs. NE	40	+12
29	Randall Cobb	GB	vs. NE	49	+20
30	Brandon Marshall	CHI	at Det	59	+29
31	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	at Dal	55	+24
32	Rashad Jennings	NYG	at Jac	35	+3
33	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	at SF	36	+3
34	Alfred Morris	WAS	at Ind	43	+9
35	Justin Forsett	BAL	vs. SD	37	+2
36	Mike Evans	TB	vs. Cin	56	+20
37	Tre Mason	STL	vs. Oak	52	+15
38	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	at Min	60	+22
39	Philip Rivers	SD	at Bal	14	-25
40	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	at Det	61	+21
41	Mark Ingram	NO	at Pit	50	+9
42	Mike Wallace	MIA	at NYJ	66	+24
43	Cam Newton	CAR	at Min	17	-26
44	C.J. Anderson	DEN	at KC	29	-15
45	Jeremy Hill	CIN	at TB	54	+9
46	Sammy Watkins	BUF	vs. Cle	74	+28
47	Giovani Bernard	CIN	at TB	63	+16
48	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	at Buf	65	+17
49	DeSean Jackson	WAS	at Ind	75	+26
50	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	at NYJ	11	-39
51	Ryan Mathews	SD	at Bal	76	+25
52	Frank Gore	SF	vs. Sea	80	+28
53	Mark Sanchez	PHI	at Dal	13	-40
54	Keenan Allen	SD	at Bal	71	+17
55	Shane Vereen	NE	at GB	81	+26
56	LeGarrette Blount	NE	at GB	85	+29
57	Golden Tate	DET	vs. Chi	64	+7
58	Roddy White	ATL	vs. Ari	67	+9
59	Julius Thomas	DEN	at KC	109	+50
60	Denard Robinson	JAC	vs. NYG	58	-2
61	Lamar Miller	MIA	at NYJ	68	+7
62	Matthew Stafford	DET	vs. Chi	12	-50
63	Jordan Matthews	PHI	at Dal	69	+6
64	Joique Bell	DET	vs. Chi	62	-2
65	Eli Manning	NYG	at Jac	16	-49
66	Michael Floyd	ARI	at Atl	103	+37
67	Greg Olsen	CAR	at Min	78	+11
68	Fred Jackson	BUF	vs. Cle	72	+4
69	Bishop Sankey	TEN	at Hou	101	+32
70	Steve Smith	BAL	vs. SD	90	+20
71	Anquan Boldin	SF	vs. Sea	93	+22
72	Matt Ryan	ATL	vs. Ari	18	-54
73	Jason Witten	DAL	vs. Phi	87	+14
74	Andy Dalton	CIN	at TB	20	-54
75	Trent Richardson	IND	vs. Was	98	+23
76	Eric Decker	NYJ	vs. Mia	107	+31
77	Jordan Cameron	CLE	at Buf	150	+73
78	Delanie Walker	TEN	at Hou	97	+19
79	Chris Ivory	NYJ	vs. Mia	113	+34
80	Jay Cutler	CHI	at Det	22	-58
81	Torrey Smith	BAL	vs. SD	89	+8
82	Vincent Jackson	TB	vs. Cin	83	+1
83	Antonio Gates	SD	at Bal	106	+23
84	Marques Colston	NO	at Pit	100	+16
85	Russell Wilson	SEA	at SF	15	-70
86	Reggie Wayne	IND	vs. Was	99	+13
87	Joe Flacco	BAL	vs. SD	23	-64
88	Andre Johnson	HOU	vs. Ten	94	+6
89	Vernon Davis	SF	vs. Sea	169	+80
90	Alex Smith	KC	vs. Den	31	-59
91	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	vs. Ten	84	-7
92	Terrance Williams	DAL	vs. Phi	116	+24
93	Julian Edelman	NE	at GB	77	-16
94	Jarvis Landry	MIA	at NYJ	96	+2
95	Alfred Blue	HOU	vs. Ten	132	+37
96	Colin Kaepernick	SF	vs. Sea	27	-69
97	Brandon LaFell	NE	at GB	73	-24
98	Kenny Stills	NO	at Pit	105	+7
99	Rueben Randle	NYG	at Jac	112	+13
100	Percy Harvin	NYJ	vs. Mia	108	+8

 

Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from more than 100 experts provided by FantasyPros.

Injury Report

Every week, we break down the most significant injuries on the official NFL injury report (NFLMedia.com credentials required) as they pertain to fantasy, from the game-time decisions to the probables and those ruled out.

Game-Time Decisions

TE Julius Thomas (ankle), Denver Broncos

Thomas was limited in practice this week, but that is an upgrade from his Week 12 status. With an important game looming with the Kansas City Chiefs, we should expect the Broncos to push him into action this week. The problem is we won't have a definitive report on his status before the 1 p.m. games start. Make sure you have an alternative from one of the last two games of the week to replace Thomas late:

1. Denver Broncos (Jacob Tamme) at Kansas City Chiefs (Travis Kelce or Anthony Fasano)
2. Miami Dolphins (Charles Clay) at New York Jets (Jace Amaro)

WR Roddy White (ankle), Atlanta Falcons

He missed practice all week, but head coach Mike Smith is confident White will play Sunday, despite all the missed time. Smith told ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure:

"

Because Roddy studies the game and understands how people are going to try to defend him, and he's been in this league for over 10 years. We've done it multiple times last season in terms of him not being able to get out on the practice field. ... He did work with our (athletic performance) people (Friday) and got good reports on where he was in terms of moving around. I feel confident, still, that he'll play on Sunday.

"

Arizona is not an overly favorable matchup—and it is a later 4:25 p.m. ET start—but you should follow Smith's confidence in using White as needed in fantasy.

WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee)

On the other side of that matchup—where it is more favorable for fantasy owners against the NFL's worst pass defense—we have less confidence in Fitzgerald in playing, much less helping fantasy owners. While the wideout is "progressing nicely," head coach Bruce Arians told Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official website Fitzgerald's knee issue "is a little bit more severe" than the hamstring problem he played through last year after missing practice time.

It doesn't look good. Fitz will likely be on the wrong side of the game-time decision. Even if he does play, he won't do so at 100 percent.

TE Jordan Cameron (concussion), Cleveland Browns

He has gotten some limited practice in this week, but his status remains in the hands of doctors and the NFL's concussion protocol. If he plays, expect him to play a full workload. Watch his status at the 11:30 a.m. ET inactives deadline.

TE Jordan Reed (hamstring), Washington Redskins

He has practiced this week, something you don't tend to do on a hamstring if you don't intend to play. The switch back to Colt McCoy gives the Redskins some potential life in the downfield passing game, particularly since the Indianapolis Colts are fourth-worst against fantasy tight ends. Reed is a nice sleeper once he is declared active.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (back), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He was able to practice this week, but he is the least likely of these game-time options to be truly counted on in fantasy crunch time. He could sneak up for a touchdown, though, against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are in the bottom 10 of fantasy against tight ends.

The Probables

The following players were officially listed as probable, so you can consider them safe to play in fantasy, as needed:

1. RB Arian Foster (groin)
2. RB Andre Ellington (hip, foot)
3. QB Tom Brady (ankle)
4. WR Odell Beckham (back)
5. RB Shane Vereen (ankle)
6. RB Ryan Mathews (shoulder)
7. WR Julian Edelman (thigh)
8. RB Matt Asiata (concussion)
9. TE Kyle Rudolph (abdomen, groin)
10. WR Cordarrelle Patterson (knee)
11. RB Charles Sims (ankle)
12. WR Brandon LaFell (shoulder)
13. K Dan Carpenter (right groin)
14. RB Juwan Thompson (knee)
15. QB Drew Stanton (ankle)
16. WR Kenny Britt (back)
17. TE Jared Cook (back)
18. WR Eddie Royal (toe)
19. RB Pierre Thomas (ribs, shoulder)
20. WR Greg Jennings (rib)
21. WR Robert Woods (ankle)
22. QB Blake Bortles (left wrist)
23. WR Davante Adams (heel)
24. WR Harry Douglas (foot)
25. WR Donnie Avery (groin)
26. WR Jarius Wright (hamstring)
27. RB Dexter McCluster (concussion)

Find Replacements

The doubtful and players labeled officially out have to be benched in all leagues, while their backups should be considered viable fantasy sleepers, if not stars. Line up replacements for these guys:

1. RB Montee Ball (groin)
2. RB Ronnie Hillman (foot)
3. RB Latavius Murray (concussion)
4. RB Jerick McKinnon (back)
5. TE Dwayne Allen (ankle)
6. RB Khiry Robinson (forearm)

Start 'Em

Here are five must-start options for Week 13 based on health, game plan or matchup for fantasy football owners, one at each position:

QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)

Not only is Tannehill enjoying a third-year quarterback breakthrough, but he is coming off a three-touchdown performance in Week 12. He has five touchdowns in the past two weeks and nine in the past four. He has yet to throw for 300 yards, but he can do so here against the third-worst team in fantasy against quarterbacks, per FFToday.com. He is a top-10 option at the position, as we wrote in B/R's Week 13 Big Board on Wednesday.

RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (at Green Bay Packers)

We might be fearful of the Bill Belichick running back carousel, but Belichick is a loyal coach. He sticks with guys who haven't let him down. Jonas Gray has, while Blount hasn't. We expect Blount to do the bulk of the physical running the Pats want to do against the Packers' 30th-ranked run defense, as we wrote in the Overall Rankings slide. Blount should be good for 75-plus yards and at least one touchdown.

WR Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers (at Baltimore Ravens)

We understand the skepticism here, but Allen is going off a big Week 12 and will be facing the second-worst team in fantasy against wide receivers. The Chargers should get into the end zone with someone in this one. The Ravens are very tough on running backs (No 2. in fantasy, per FFToday.com), which makes Allen our pick to score.

TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver Broncos)

The Broncos have the NFL's second-best run defense, so Andy Reid will have to install a short passing game in place of the rushing attack. That is where Kelce comes in, particularly in the red zone. The Broncos are in the bottom eight of fantasy against tight ends, per FFToday.com. This lines up as a game that could be put in Kelce's big hands.

D/ST Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets)

The Dolphins have a better defense than you likely think. The Jets are just as bad against opposing defensive units as you think, if not worse. Geno Smith is back as the starter, as the Jets are giving him one last chance before starting over at quarterback again. Expect sacks, turnovers and defensive touchdowns, perhaps multiple ones.

Sit 'Em

Here are five players, one at each of the primary positions, whose matchups are unfavorable enough to keep them out of fantasy starting lineups for Week 13:

QB Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

He let fantasy owners down last week in his return to Chicago with just one touchdown, so a return home against the Bengals should not excite anyone. Cincy has given up the fewest touchdown passes to fantasy quarterbacks and is in the top 10 against the position, according to FFToday.com. McCown is a low-end starter this week even in two-quarterback formats.

RB Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

The veteran has a touchdown in three of the past four games, but the Cardinals run defense is third best in football. They are also No. 1 in fantasy against running backs (FFToday.com), giving up just five touchdowns to the position. Only the Buffalo Bills (four) and Kansas City Chiefs (two) have given up fewer. All of the backs in the Falcons rotation are bad plays this week.

WR Percy Harvin/Eric Decker, New York Jets (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Sure, you can hope for a revival of the passing game with Michael Vick back on the bench, but the Miami Dolphins have the NFL's fourth-ranked pass defense. It is a tough week to trust these once-promising players who are now victims of the system in fantasy crunch time. They need to score touchdowns to be valuable, and who thinks Geno Smith can squeeze the ball into the end zone via the pass here? No one.

TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans Saints)

The Saints are in the bottom 10 in pass defense, but they have done a number on opposing tight ends, per FFToday.com. They are No. 1 against the position in fantasy. Also, the Steelers have been more aggressive downfield with their emerging trio of wideouts. Miller is not a starter on a fantasy contender at this point.

D/ST Green Bay Packers (vs. New England Patriots)

As we wrote in the Overall Rankings slide, the highest over-under game might not be a shootout. You can consider the Pats defense a viable start. You should not do the same for the Packers. Green Bay is facing the stingiest team in fantasy against defense/special teams (FFToday.com). The Pats just don't give up the fantasy scoring plays of sacks, turnovers and touchdowns.

Sleepers and Busts

Here are five sleeper options to consider playing and five regular starters to consider sitting—one each at the primary positions—in daily fantasy leagues this week:

Five Week 13 Sleepers

1. QB Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals—The Bucs have been weak in the secondary, so it should create opportunities downfield for Dalton, despite his disappointing year under offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.
2. RB Alfred Blue, Houston Texans—Arian Foster (groin) is probable, as written in the Injury Report slide, but Blue should get some time behind the vet against this suspect run defense that is second worst in fantasy against running backs, per FFToday.com.
3. WR Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins—He has been a consistent target monster and should be able to score against that weak New York Jets secondary.
4. TE Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts—He can be a fantasy gem when Dwayne Allen (ankle) is out, which he is.
5. D/ST New York Giants—The Giants don't have much going for them this season, but a matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars gives them a rare chance to make a mess of an opposing offense.

Five Week 13 Lineup Busts

1. QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons—After a shaky first half of the season, the Arizona Cardinals have played much better against the pass. That is a good defense, and this should be a tight ballgame.
2. RB C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos—We probably start him because of what he has done as a receiver, but the Kansas City Chiefs have been very tough against opposing running backs, allowing a league-low two touchdowns to them, per FFToday.com.
3. WR Vincent Jackson, Cincinnati Bengals—As we wrote in the Sit 'Em entry on Josh McCown, the Bengals are tough on wide receivers, especially with regard to keeping them out of the end zone.
4. TE Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos—He is too important to sit if he plays, but we should expect him to be limited even if he does.
5. D/ST Kansas City Chiefs—Playing a defense against Peyton Manning in a must-win situation in the AFC West and fantasy terms is a bad, bad idea.

Last-Minute Waiver Options

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

If your starting lineups are still not filled after all this analysis, here are some last-minute options to consider, courtesy of 10 of CBSSports.com's most-viewed players leading up to Sunday's kickoffs:

1. RB Ray Rice, free agent—Clearly, he won't play anytime soon, but you might want to add him as a just-in-case guy for the fantasy postseason.
2. RB Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings—With Jerick McKinnon doubtful, Asiata should get more snaps, especially near the goal line.
3. RB Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts—Everyone in fantasy is hoping he puts Trent Richardson on the pine, but it hasn't happened yet. Add Boom Heron just in case it comes.
4. WR Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers—The matchup against the Saints is an intriguing one. This game could get loose on both sides.
5. WR Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots—If you disagree the Pats and Green Bay Packers are going to play conservatively, as we wrote in this slideshow, LaFell might be a starting option for you.
6. WR Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings—He is a one-week flash in the pan. We just cannot trust him with the Vikings' shaky quarterback play.
7. RB Ben Tate, Minnesota Vikings—See the Asiata entry above. Tate is behind some backs, including even Joe Banyard perhaps.
8. TE Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings—He is too talented to be ignored by Teddy Bridgewater and the play-calling in Minnesota for long.
9. WR Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins—His consistent targets should get him more fantasy love than it has gotten him to date. He could have a multiple-touchdown day coming.
10. RB Alfred Blue, Houston Texans—Arian Foster (groin) always needs a sidekick. The matchup should keep Blue productive enough to be a flex option.

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.