Seahawks vs. 49ers: Breaking Down San Francisco's Game Plan
Rivalries, grudge matches and the talk over what happened a season ago may have set the stage for Thursday night's prime-time matchup featuring the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks, but it is what is at stake between these two teams that matters most.
San Francisco hosts its division rival on Thanksgiving at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC. The 49ers sit as a one-point favorite over their NFC West foe, according to Odds Shark.
There will certainly be plenty of discussion about what transpired in the NFC Championship Game last January. Cameras will focus on Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman and 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree as they battle it out in the next chapter of what has already turned into an overworked story.
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But there is far more on the line than old scores to settle.
Both San Francisco and Seattle sit at 7-4. The Seahawks hold the tiebreaker with a better divisional record (1-1 compared to the 49ers' 1-2). As a result, Seattle currently holds the No. 6 seed in the playoff picture. San Francisco, at No. 8, is on the outside looking in.
Here is a breakdown of what the current playoff picture looks like:
| No. 1 | Arizona Cardinals | West | 9-2 |
| No. 2 | Green Bay Packers | North | 8-3 |
| No. 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | East | 8-3 |
| No. 4 | Atlanta Falcons | South | 4-7 |
| No. 5 | Dallas Cowboys | East | 8-3 |
| No. 6 | Seattle Seahawks | West | 7-4 |
| No. 7 | Detroit Lions | North | 7-4 |
| No. 8 | San Francisco 49ers | West | 7-4 |
| No. 9 | Chicago Bears | North | 5-6 |
A bunch of teams are jammed up for the final postseason berths. Gaining control over the division is also not out of reach for both the 49ers and Seahawks either.
Both teams have plenty riding on this contest.
The Opponent
San Francisco knows its opponent well. One season removed from the 49ers' disappointing exit from the playoffs—followed by the Seahawks' decisive victory in Super Bowl XLVIII—San Francisco had to wait until Week 13 to try and get some sort of revenge against its hated foe.
Like the 49ers, the Seahawks endured a number of setbacks, distractions and concerns over the course of 2014.
There was the October 17 trade of wide receiver Percy Harvin to the New York Jets, which fueled speculation that all wasn't right within the Seahawks' locker room. There were also disputed reports that running back Marshawn Lynch wouldn't be back for 2015, according to CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson.
Seattle suffered, much like San Francisco, from a lack of continuity on offense—which subsequently drew criticism from its own wideout, Doug Baldwin.
"Seahawk calls out team after defeat: Doug Baldwin says 'it's not on Russ,' but calls out Seahawks' offense aft... http://t.co/DA9p6cH9kA
— Google News Team (@GoogleNewsTeam) October 13, 2014"
The Seahawks lost their last road game—a 24-20 defeat at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. But they did upend the division-leading Arizona Cardinals a week later.
Their defense is an interesting commodity. On the one hand, Seattle leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed (3,265). The Seahawks also rank No. 3 in fewest passing yards against (2,293) and No. 6 in least rushing yards allowed (972).
Here's a breakdown between the two defenses, courtesy of StatMilk (subscription required):
Judging by the numbers, both San Francisco and Seattle's defenses rank awfully close.
But stats can be deceiving. The lofty sack and interception totals generated in 2013 have eluded the Seahawks this year. The once-vaunted "Legion of Boom" has forced a mere seven interceptions on the season—far off pace from the 28 generated a season ago.
Sherman—the self-proclaimed "best corner" in the league—actually ranks No. 15, according to Pro Football Focus (h/t David Fucillo of Niners Nation). Safety Earl Thomas is the No. 11 safety.
Seattle has also sacked opposing quarterbacks just 16 times in 2014, also down from the 44 last year. Losses of pass-rushers like Brandon Mebane (hamstring) influence this drop, but they don't explain everything.
Still, the Seahawks defense is potent. While the big-play stats aren't necessarily there, this unit is perfectly capable at limiting opposing offenses, both on the ground and through the air.
For a 49ers team that has struggled offensively in recent weeks, this could spell trouble.
Fixing the Offense...Now!
Sloppy, uninspiring offensive performances worked against teams like the New York Giants and Washington Redskins. A replica of these showings probably won't work on a short week versus Seattle.
The lowly Giants and Redskins held the 49ers to just 33 combined points in Weeks 11 and 12—games in which San Francisco's defense was forced to carry the burden of its offensive ineptitude.
Recalling how the 49ers forced five interceptions off Giants quarterback Eli Manning yet mustered just three points off those turnovers is enough to spark plenty of concern.
Oh, and it didn't help that San Francisco went 0-of-4 in the red zone that particular week.
The 49ers backed up that lackluster performance with an equally unimpressive offensive showing versus the Redskins. This time, it was the 49ers who turned the ball over. San Francisco lost two fumbles, and quarterback Colin Kaepernick tossed an unfortunate interception.
The defense bailed out the 49ers offense in Weeks 11 and 12. Will this unit have to do so again in Week 13?
As a whole, San Francisco ranks No. 19 in the league with an average of 340 yards per game. The running game—long considered a 49ers strength—is 11th, averaging 119.5 yards per contest.
But the passing game, which was supposed to be much better in 2014, has fallen back on hard times. San Francisco's 220.5 passing-yards-per-game average is 23rd.
Determining what exactly is wrong here can lead us in a number of different yet related directions.
There are and will likely continue to be ongoing concerns over offensive coordinator Greg Roman's play-calling. This certainly plays a part, but Roman doesn't lose one-on-one matchups along the offensive line that result in 34 sacks allowed. He doesn't drop catches, throw inaccurate passes or give up fumbles.
Those setbacks are on the players themselves.
In reality, the offensive woes are the result of key components going awry within a complicated machine. When important parts aren't working correctly, the machine doesn't run as well. It may even break down.
Perhaps that is what we are witnessing, and it falls upon the 49ers to fix this in short order.
Does this mean returning to a formula that has worked well in the past? Should we expect running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde to mercilessly attack Seattle's defense?
Gore has a strong career history against the Seahawks—averaging 5.33 yards per carry. But Seattle bottled him up in the NFC Championship Game, holding him to just 14 yards on 11 tries—an average of 1.27 yards per attempt.
Fucillo breaks down San Francisco's offensive approach further:
"The 49ers have had their games where they completely abandon Frank Gore, and then they have had games where he clearly is a focal point of the offense. The Seahawks are only giving up 3.5 yards per carry this season, and Football Outsiders ranks them No. 9 overall in adjusted line yards. They struggle on the back-end, but they have generally kept opposing running backs confined.
The strong defense against the run seemingly means we will see the 49ers attempt to attack the Seahawks through the air, but this offense has frequently zigged when we expected it to zag. What do you expect to see on Thursday? Will they surprise us with something remotely resembling an efficient offensive attack? Or will it be a repeat of recent weeks in which we hope and pray the defense can do enough to keep hope alive?
"
What will the 49ers do on offense? How will they adjust if the Seahawks are capable of taking away certain avenues of approach?
It's anyone's guess at this point.
No Defensive Letup
The theme behind San Francisco's back-to-back victories over New York and Washington was its defense more than making up for an underachieving offense.
Thursday's contest will be a defensive showdown. There is little doubt to that statement.
But as is so often the case between two teams of similar nature, the difference will be which defense steps up and makes the critical play at the critical moment.
The 49ers have enjoyed a few of these in recent weeks. Be it the five picks off Manning in Week 11 or the five sacks of quarterback Robert Griffin III—one of which resulted in a recovered fumble to ice the game—in Week 12, San Francisco's defense has done all it can to thwart opponents' offenses.
Yet this unit will need to do more.
Here's a worrisome thought: San Francisco has allowed two 100-plus-yard rushers in its last three games—Mark Ingram of the New Orleans Saints and Alfred Morris of the Redskins. Now, the 49ers will have to contend with Lynch.
Lynch rushed for 140 and 124 yards against the New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs in Weeks 10 and 11 respectively. But the Cardinals were able to bottle him up for just 39 yards in Week 12. He can be stopped, but it takes a stalwart run defense—like Arizona's—to do it.
San Francisco's run defense ranks No. 7 in the NFL with an average of 91.4 yards allowed per game.
Slowing Lynch down at the point of attack then bringing him down with extra support will be the vital avenue of approach here.
If the 49ers are able to force the Seahawks into a one-dimensional, pass-happy approach, San Francisco's defense may be able to get the upper hand. Defensively, the 49ers rank No. 3 in the league against the pass (208.7 yards per game).
But it is the return of the pass rush that gives the 49ers a decisive edge.
Linebacker Aldon Smith's reinstatement cannot be overlooked. He and the other San Francisco pass-rushers—Aaron Lynch, Justin Smith and Ray McDonald—have combined for seven sacks in the 49ers' last two games. San Francisco had just 15 prior to this stretch.
Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked seven times by Arizona a week ago. The elusive signal-caller has been brought down 27 times on the year, which suggests that the Seahawks' O-line is vulnerable enough for the 49ers to bring pressure.
San Francisco's four-man rush will negate the need to blitz, allowing more defenders back into coverage. This will help a depleted 49ers secondary that has been forced to adjust to the losses of cornerbacks Tramaine Brock (hamstring), Chris Cook (hamstring) and Jimmie Ward (foot).
And it wouldn't hurt to let rookie linebacker Chris Borland continue his reputation as a tackling machine.
Do the Little Things
In critical matchups like these, the victor is frequently determined by committing the fewest mistakes and making the most out of every situation, big or small.
This means winning the one-on-one matchups. Whether it is along the line of scrimmage, on receiving routes or executing blocks, individual execution will have to be decisive.
But the game will also be determined by other important factors.
San Francisco struggled with field position in Week 12. All too frequently, offensive drives started within the 49ers' own 20-yard line. This hindered the offense's ability to sustain drives. San Francisco overcame this adversity against Washington. It might not be as lucky against Seattle.
Another factor will be whether the 49ers can find paydirt in the red zone. They'll need to do so when given the opportunity on Thursday.
Fortunately, San Francisco showed some ability in this area last week—a four-yard rush by Hyde that gave the 49ers the lead in the fourth quarter.
Yes, the fourth quarter. You read that right.
It might take another fourth-quarter red-zone score to give San Francisco the victory in Week 13. The team cannot afford what took place on its final offensive drive the last time these two teams met.
If the 49ers can execute in these areas—and those listed previously—they stand an excellent chance to spoil the Seahawks' Thanksgiving celebrations.
More importantly, a victory would put San Francisco in a much better position to achieve what it needs en route to a sixth Super Bowl title—a playoff berth.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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