How Many Teams Have a Shot at the Western Conference Crown?
The Western Conference playoff race features a number of familiar faces, but their order of appearance is dramatically different than most preseason projections.
If the season ended today, the defending champion San Antonio Spurs would begin their playoff journey on the road as the No. 5 seed. The Los Angeles Clippers, a popular pick too for a title run, would sneak in as the eighth and final team. The Oklahoma City Thunder, who won more than 70 percent of their games the past four seasons, would miss out on the festivities and own the West's worst record.
Meanwhile, the top four seeds would fall to the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers. These aren't exactly off-the-grid squads, but only one made it out of the opening round in 2014. And that team was the Blazers, who were unceremoniously dispatched by the Spurs in five games during the conference semis.
The playoffs, of course, don't start today. These teams haven't even completed the first turn of their marathon schedule, so each one has time to change its position for better or worse.
That said, hot starts don't have to cool off. Of course, these sleeping giants could awaken at any moment too.
The West feels as deep as ever, employing several tiers of teams who could all make things interesting.
The Full-Fledged Contenders
Golden State Warriors
Two-way balance is the key to ultimate success, and the Warriors are the West's most balanced team. They have the NBA's second-most efficient defense and sixth-ranked offense, which all adds up to a league-leading net rating of plus-11.9 points per 100 possessions.
The ball is popping around the offensive end under new head coach Steve Kerr, as the Warriors have gone from tossing out the fewest passes per game (245.8 last season) to the 10th most (315.6), per NBA.com's player tracking data. That ball movement, which has taken full advantage of Andrew Bogut's penchant for passing, has helped give the Dubs an explosive offense to complement their dominant defense.
Stephen Curry is performing at an MVP level (23.9 points, 7.7 assists), and Klay Thompson is campaigning hard for an All-Star spot (22.5 points on .459/.434/.871 shooting). The bench has one former All-Star in Andre Iguodala and could have a second in David Lee, depending on how Kerr handles the latter once his hamstring cooperates.
The Warriors have stars, supportive depth and sound execution on both sides of the ball. Their 11-2 start, the best in franchise history, feels like a precursor to even better days ahead.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies haven't lost their grit-and-grind identity. This is still a tough, physical defense that can wear out its opponents. Memphis sits fourth in defensive efficiency and eighth in field-goal percentage against (43.6).
But the real optimism behind the Grizzlies' potential jump from good to great is the way this offense has come alive. Memphis ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, up 10 spots from last season.
In David Joerger's second season at the helm, the Grizzlies are playing faster and more aggressively at the offensive end. The result has been more free-throw attempts (24.5, up from 20.3), more possessions per 48 minutes (94.33 from 92.25) and fewer trips lasting until the final seconds of the shot clock (13 percent after 21-plus seconds from 17 percent, per 82games.com).
"I think our bigs so far this year have run the floor tremendously well," Mike Conley said, via Chris Herrington for ESPN.com. "They’ve allowed us to get the ball into the post earlier and not rely [on shots late in the clock]."
The Grizzlies (12-2) are getting 52.2 points a night from Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. That trio has found an extra punch on the perimeter from Courtney Lee (.541/.611/.889 shooting) and should have even more help once Quincy Pondexter and Vince Carter start finding their shots.
San Antonio Spurs
It's always hard to tell how much the Spurs actually value regular-season success. On the one hand, coach Gregg Popovich has occasionally held his top players out of action to buy them extra rest. On the other hand, this is the same franchise sitting on an unprecedented run of 15 consecutive 50-win seasons.
The Spurs do a remarkable job of avoiding the NBA roller coaster. This veteran-laden roster never allows itself to get too high or too low. That's why it was so hard to get concerned by the club's 2-3 start and why no one should be surprised by San Antonio picking up seven victories in the eight games since.
The Spurs are not at full strength. Tiago Splitter (calf) has played 10 minutes all season or 10 more than spark plug Patty Mills (shoulder). Reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard has struggled finding his shot (43.9 field-goal percentage) while still feeling the effects of the eye infection that sidelined him for most of the preseason.
And yet, this team that doesn't chase regular-season wins or have its full cast of characters owns the NBA's sixth-best net rating at plus-6.5 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs (9-4) are still a force, and their track record suggests that shouldn't change at any point.
"After two consecutive appearances in the Finals...the reigning champions may be the safest bet in basketball at the moment," wrote Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb. "Whatever happens between now and April, these guys will be ready to compete."
Portland Trail Blazers
It was only natural to wonder whether the Trail Blazers might regress given how they finished the 2013-14 campaign. After sprinting out to a 31-9 start, they were almost a .500 team in the second half (23-19). They didn't play enough defense (16th in efficiency), and their bench provided a league-worst 23.6 points a night, per HoopsStats.com.
The Blazers picked up a pair of proven yet uninspiring veterans in Steve Blake and Chris Kaman over the offseason. Portland seemed to be banking on enjoying enough internal growth to help raise its ceiling. C.J. McCollum, the 10th overall pick in 2013 and most logical source of that growth, shot just 37.2 percent from the field before fracturing his right index finger.
And yet, the Blazers (11-3) do look better than before. Substantially better perhaps.
Portland is one of only seven teams surrendering fewer than 100 points per 100 possessions. A middle-of-the-pack schedule hasn't hurt, and the Blazers have allowed triple-digit outbursts to the Charlotte Hornets and Philadelphia 76ers, who sit 25th and 30th in offensive efficiency respectively. But Portland has also held both the Warriors and Dallas Mavericks to double digits, so the improved statistics should not be dismissed.
With LaMarcus Aldridge (22.2 points), Damian Lillard (19.9) and Wesley Matthews (15.5) all at their best, the Blazers look like one of the conference's elites. Once ultra-valuable glue guy Nicolas Batum gets going, Portland should have enough—offense, defense, depth—to stay near the front of this pack.
The Flawed but Dangerous Second Tier
Houston Rockets
The Rockets (11-3) have performed as well as any of the clubs not yet put under the microscope. Houston has the NBA's top-ranked defense plus one of its most potent offensive weapons in James Harden (25.2 points, 6.6 assists).
Those two things—Harden and defense—might not seem like a natural fit, but the Rockets have relied on Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Trevor Ariza to launch up the defensive ranks.
The problem is this former offensive juggernaut is suddenly struggling to score. Houston has cracked triple digits only once its last nine times out. To make matters even worse, Howard has been sidelined indefinitely by a strained right knee. Any team would have trouble replacing a player of this caliber, but the shallow Rockets really cannot afford injuries of any kind.
"The ability to bring Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin off the bench last season was a luxury—an expensive luxury, but a luxury nonetheless," wrote ESPN.com's Amin Elhassan. "While Kostas Papanikolaou has been a pleasant surprise, the bench has been inconsistent (especially on the defensive end) and limited."
When the Rockets have all of their pieces, they have what it takes to escape from the West. But their lack of depth makes their margin for error incredibly thin.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas, which boasts one of the league's deepest rosters, has the NBA's best offense by a considerable margin. The Mavs have averaged an astounding 115.2 points per 100 possessions. The gap separating them from the second-ranked team (5.2) is wider than the one between the No. 2 and No. 15 offenses.
That has propelled Dallas to the league's second-best net rating (plus-11.7), which is remarkable given how mediocre this team has been at the opposite end. Its last time out, this defense allowed 111 points to an Indiana Pacers team that averages 92.4 a night. It was only the second time this season the Pacers have scored 100-plus points, the other coming against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.
And this game was in Dallas.
"I don't even know the words," Dirk Nowitzki said after the game, per Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. "Horrible loss. Horrific. Awful. I mean, I can't find any more words."
Former Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler was brought back to Dallas to anchor the interior, but there are only so many mistakes one player can cover. Chandler has helped the Mavs sit tied for seventh in opponents' shooting within the restricted area (58.4 percent). But the 7'1" center can't fix Dallas' 26th-placed standing in defending the three (39.4 percent).
The Mavs offense is good enough to keep them within striking distance. But they have to get more defensive to move to the front of the line.
Los Angeles Clippers
There is so much to like about the Clippers' championship formula.
They have the planet's best point guard in Chris Paul (and his absurd 9.9 assists against 1.5 turnovers), one of the league's top power forwards in Blake Griffin (22.2 points, 3.9 assists) and one of the game's great coaching minds in Doc Rivers.
That's an unbelievable Big Three to have; plus it's supported by reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford, three-point ace J.J. Redick, above-the-rim center DeAndre Jordan and stretch 7-footer Spencer Hawes.
The sum of those parts alone should add up to something pretty special. Last season, without Hawes, the Clippers enjoyed 57 wins and top-seven efficiency ranks on both ends.
But this time around, the Clippers (8-5) are on pace for 50 wins, which might be enough to grab the eighth spot in the West. Their defense now ranks 17th overall, allowing 104.5 points per 100 possessions. They have been particularly generous at the rim, yielding a 55.7 percent success rate on such shots, seventh highest in the league.
Even with their offensive firepower, they aren't good enough to consistently give up point-blank chances.
"The Clips have enough talent to mask their issues against the bad," wrote Bleacher Report's Fred Katz. "But there aren't many teams in the Western Conference who fit that description, and they're going to fall far short of preseason expectations if they don't fix these issues down the line."
The Clippers still have a championship roster, but they need to start performing like they have one sooner than later.
The Field
Realistically, the conference crown is going to fall into the hands of one of the seven teams listed above. An eighth could enter the fray if the Oklahoma City Thunder can make up a lot of ground quickly once Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook return to action, but even that is going to be tough to pull off.
But there are other clubs who could leave their fingerprints on the championship picture.
If OKC can't snag a playoff spot or one of the other seven teams falters, the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans and Denver Nuggets will all make a push for that final position. While these four don't have enough to escape from the West, each has a chance to pull a first-round upset.
The Suns, with their three-headed monster at point guard (Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas), are one of the toughest covers in the league. They play a frenetic brand of basketball unlike anyone else's, and they could be a nightmare matchup if their shooters catch fire. Ditto for the Nuggets, who make up for their lack of star power with copious amounts of depth.
The Kings have two players who can consistently create their own shot in DeMarcus Cousins (23.1 points) and Rudy Gay (21.1). That could be a goldmine late in games, especially if this team continues making strides on the defensive end.
If the Pelicans don't have the NBA's best player in Anthony Davis, they have its heir apparent. The Brow and his league-leading 34.5 player efficiency rating (which would be an all-time high) can change a game's outcome by himself. If New Orleans' wings can figure out how to split touches and make sure to feed the big guy first, this team could produce a playoff stunner.
Again, these four teams won't take the crown, but they could abruptly end a contender's journey.
It's too early to say which team should be favored in this race, but it's already apparent this will be a crowded field. Whichever franchise raises a 2015 conference championship banner will have earned it.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
