Seahawks vs. 49ers: Complete Week 13 Preview for San Francisco
The long-awaited grudge match between the San Francisco 49ers and the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks is finally here, as friends and family settle in to enjoy Thanksgiving, only to follow it up with a prime-time matchup between these two NFC West rivals.
This Week 13 contest starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC, and the line is even between these two teams, according to Odds Shark.
San Francisco and Seattle have developed one of the most heated rivalries in recent years—a competition that was fueled by the results, and aftermath, of the NFC Championship Game a season ago.
When quarterback Colin Kaepernick was asked about whether this game meant anything more given the context and what happened at the tail end of last year, he responded via Taylor Price of 49ers.com, "Just another game we need to win to get into the playoffs."
"Colin @Kaepernick7 is treating Thanksgiving night like any other game. http://t.co/j1lZs4CDdh pic.twitter.com/uSm8h4CJbw
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 25, 2014"
Kaepernick was also asked whether he would challenge Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman—we need no reminder as to what happened last time. The signal-caller responded that he would "throw to whoever's open."
Rivalries and old scores aside, it is impossible to overlook the fact that both San Francisco and Seattle need this victory. While both teams have a 7-4 record, the 49ers remain as the No. 8 seed in the NFC. The Seahawks are No. 6 in the conference, clinging to the final playoff spot in what promises to be an enticing stretch over the final weeks.
Let's break down everything one needs to know as the 49ers ready themselves to spoil the Seahawks' Thanksgiving Day celebrations at Levi's Stadium.
49ers' Week 12 Recap
1 of 5The 49ers got away with an ugly win versus the Washington Redskins in Week 12, at least from their offense's perspective.
On paper, Colin Kaepernick didn't have all that bad of a day. He finished the contest with 20 completions on 29 attempts for 256 yards and one touchdown. One of the few mistakes was his lone interception—a ball picked off by cornerback Greg Ducre in single-man coverage.
But the running game was bottled up by Washington's defense. In total, the combination of Kaepernick and running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde totaled just 66 rushing yards on 29 attempts—an average of 2.3 yards per carry.
After a first-quarter touchdown by wide receiver Anquan Boldin, San Francisco's offense continually struggled to maintain drives, often getting bottled up by bad field position throughout the contest. The 49ers also had four fumbles, three of which were recovered by the Redskins.
Yet San Francisco mustered just enough offense when it mattered most—a fourth-quarter red-zone rushing touchdown from Hyde, which was the first time the 49ers' first-team offense had found the end zone in the fourth frame this year.
Defensively, San Francisco was as sound as ever. While the defense allowed Redskins running backs to rush for 125 yards, Washington only generated 213 all-purpose yards over the course of the game.
Linebacker Aldon Smith was a huge factor in throwing quarterback Robert Griffin III off his game. Smith netted two of the combined five 49ers sacks on the day.
"49ers sack Robert Griffin III 5 times in 17-13 win over Redskins. • Aldon Smith: 2 sacks • Griffin: 11-19, 106 Yds pic.twitter.com/JBRdWAK3CH
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 24, 2014"
The rediscovered pass rush will continue to be a vital element as San Francisco hosts Seattle in Week 13. With the 49ers offense struggling, it's safe to assume the defense will have to shoulder a heavy burden in this vital divisional matchup.
News and Notes
2 of 5San Francisco's offense is struggling. There isn't any easy way to get around that.
In two weeks, the New York Giants and Washington Redskins combined to limit the 49ers to just 33 points. San Francisco now ranks No. 22 in the NFL with just 228 points scored.
One can look at a variety of causes here—play-calling, individual performances and execution have all been called into question. It's been a repeated topic in 2014.
While the offense continues to stumble, the 49ers defense has continued to elevate. Aldon Smith's return has reinvigorated the pass rush, which will be a major factor in the remaining five regular-season games in the season.
But can the defense continually be the factor that decides the fate of San Francisco's 2014 campaign?
Ongoing Offensive Woes
One would have thought that the 49ers offense would put forth a good day at home against an inferior Redskins squad that was suffering from a banged-up secondary.
Yet San Francisco was hindered by poor execution, bad field position and a flurry of turnovers, which thwarted much of the offensive rhythm needed to get this unit back on track.
Linebacker Ahmad Brooks was one of the first to point out the offense's struggles, via Bud Geracie of Bay Area News Group:
"Ahmad Brooks: "Our offense didnt play as good as they should have. They turned the ball over a lot." #49ers
— Bud Geracie (@WakeOfWeek) November 24, 2014"
One can only speculate how far the 49ers will get with a deep but inept offense that has struggled to maintain any sort of continuity over the course of the season.
But on a positive note, San Francisco managed to score a first-team, fourth-quarter touchdown on Sunday. The 49ers also punched the score into the end zone on their only offensive red-zone stand.
Where Is Vernon Davis?
Tight end Vernon Davis has been all but absent from the stat sheet in 2014, and his season-long woes continued in Week 12.
He was limited to three catches for 21 yards, adding to numbers that, statistically, are on pace for his worst-career season since his rookie year in 2006.
The 30-year-old's most notable gaffe came on a 3rd-and-6 play, where Davis was only able to gain five yards.
Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area was quick to point out his mistake:
"Vernon Davis should’ve known how many yards he needed for first down and run his third-down route accordingly.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) November 23, 2014"
Yet this didn't happen, and the two-time Pro Bowler's season continues to resemble a lost year.
Outstanding Defense
San Francisco's defense has been the primary reason why the team has remained in games over recent weeks. A number of standouts deserve recognition, obviously.
Brooks put forth a fine effort after his awkward sideline incident a week ago. It was Brooks who recovered a Redskins fumble to seal the victory in Week 12. Defensive ends Ray McDonald and Justin Smith continue to play at a high level, as does veteran safety Antoine Bethea.
But the biggest praise has to fall upon the remaining cast of 49ers linebackers. Who would have thought that the team—minus Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman—would rank No. 2 in the league in fewest yards allowed?
Aldon Smith's return has done wonders for the pass rush. San Francisco had 15 before his Week 11 reinstatement. Now it has 22. Rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch has also been a factor.
Yet the biggest surprise has been linebacker Chris Borland—the third-round pick who leads the team in tackles with 53 despite not being in a starting role until Willis' injury sidelined him in Week 6.
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson even gave the rookie high praise via Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News:
"Russell Wilson, on #49ers Borland: A guy I played with & people said he too short, too. He’s getting to QB, racking up tackles, making plays
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) November 25, 2014"
Borland and the defense will square off against a Seattle offense that ranks No. 13 in the league in total yards (3,953).
No NaVorro Bowman...Yet
All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman has been cleared to practice, which opened up a 21-day window for the 49ers to evaluate whether or not to activate him.
San Francisco has until December 9 to decide whether to take him off the PUP list, per Igor Mello of CBS Sports.
Even though the window is open, head coach Jim Harbaugh stated via 49ers.com that Bowman will not practice this week. Rather, he'll focus on his rehabilitation:
"Harbaugh on @NBowman53 (knee): "This week will be another week of rehabilitation... Don't anticipate any practice."
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 24, 2014"
If and when Bowman is reactivated, he'll likely slide back into his old spot that is now being held by backup linebacker Michael Wilhoite.
Injury Report
3 of 5
- Anthony Davis, OT: Doubtful (concussion)
- Glenn Dorsey, DT: Questionable (forearm)
- Tramaine Brock, CB: Questionable (hamstring)
- Vance McDonald, TE: Questionable (hip)
- Derek Carrier, TE: Questionable (foot)
- Bruce Ellington, WR: Questionable (ankle)
- Brandon Lloyd, WR: Probable (quadricep)
- Justin Smith, DE: Probable (back)
- Raymond Ventrone, S: Probable (groin)
- Bruce Miller, FB: Probable (shoulder)
- Frank Gore, RB: Probable (knee)
- Eric Reid, S: Probable (ankle)
Right tackle Anthony Davis missed Week 12 with concussion symptoms, which required backup tackle Jonathan Martin to start in his place. Martin had some pass-blocking mistakes, which could replicate if Davis misses another start.
According to Jim Harbaugh (h/t 49ers.com), Davis is still experiencing symptoms, and his status remains in doubt:
"Harbaugh said RT Anthony Davis (concussion) has still reported symptoms. His status is up in the air for #SEAvsSF. http://t.co/z5hzxuKzh3
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 24, 2014"
San Francisco's secondary is still short-handed after losing defensive backs Chris Cook and Jimmie Ward for the season. Tramaine Brock's injury remains significant.
Yet the 49ers are very thin at tight end. With Vernon Davis struggling and Vance McDonald and Derek Carrier questionable, San Francisco's play-calling may need to make some major adjustments—a scary thought.
Rookie return man Bruce Ellington will also look to get back into the mix, but he also remains questionable. Perrish Cox and Carlos Hyde have been handling the return duties in his stead.
All injury statuses courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5Perhaps no other game on the season thus far will feature as much hype and anticipation as Week 13's contest between the 49ers and Seahawks.
One doesn't need to dive too far in picking out the matchups that stood out last January when these two teams battled for the NFC title. Whether it be Colin Kaepernick versus Seattle's secondary, wide receiver Michael Crabtree against cornerback Richard Sherman or the 49ers D against running back Marshawn Lynch, this contest offers plenty to quench the viewer's thirst for drama.
Michael Crabtree vs. Richard Sherman
Of course, this would be the No. 1 matchup to watch—not necessarily because of what Crabtree has done this season but because of what transpired last year.
The Seahawks typically line up Sherman on one side of the field at all times, which means there could be equal doses of both Crabtree and wideout Anquan Boldin, depending on the formation.
But it will be the contest between these two "friendly" opponents that draws the most attention.
Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor had some comments about this competition that were reiterated through Bay Area reporters: "I’m sure that’ll be a great matchup. They’re looking forward to playing one another. Crabtree’s a great receiver. Sherman is a great cornerback. I’m sure they’re looking forward to the matchup, and they’re studying film and can’t wait."
Chancellor's statements stand in contrast to those offered by Sherman at the conclusion of the NFC Championship Game.
But at least they add just a little more edge into what will likely draw plenty of the spotlight.
Colin Kaepernick vs. Seattle's Secondary
Nearly as enticing will be the performance of Kaepernick on Thursday. Most fans know the numbers don't stack in his favor, as the team from up north seems to be his proverbial kryptonite.
Eric Branch of SFGate.com provides us with a little more detail:
"#49ers Colin Kaepernick in career vs. #Seahawks: 3 TD, 7 INT, 54.0 rating … vs. rest of NFL: 50 TD, 15 INT, 96.7 rating.
— Eric Branch (@Eric_Branch) November 25, 2014"
But some things do work into Kaepernick's favor. First, the game is at home—an obvious bonus.
More importantly, Seattle's defense isn't putting up the same numbers in two critical areas in comparison to a season ago: sacks and interceptions.
The Seahawks rank No. 29 in the league with just 16 sacks. This number is far down from the 44 generated in 2014. Seattle has just seven interceptions on the year (tied for No. 23), which stands in contrast to last season's 28.
Yes, the Seahawks defense is still good. It ranks No. 1 in fewest all-purpose yards allowed (3,265). But the absence of sacks and picks has to, at least, give Kaepernick a slightly better feeling about his chances.
Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde vs. Seahawks Front Seven
Seattle's 4-3 defense presents a tough challenge for the tandem of backs, Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.
But as important as it will be for Kaepernick to execute through the air, it will be equally as crucial for the 49ers to establish a running game that can eat up the clock and tire out the Seahawks defense.
As stated, Seattle has allowed the fewest all-purpose yards this season. Against the run, the Seahawks are sixth with just 972 yards allowed—giving up an average of 3.5 yards per carry.
Gore has an average of 5.33 yards per attempt against Seattle for his career, but that number had dwindled in recent seasons. A year ago, he only mustered an average of 1.27 yards per attempt in the NFC Championship Game.
Of course, the Seahawks have yet to see Hyde in person. Could he be the vital difference-maker, especially if the 49ers look to exploit the exterior of Seattle's defensive box?
Let's hope so.
49ers Front Seven vs. Marshawn Lynch
Flipping things around, the 49ers defense will have to contend with the premier feature of the Seahawks offense—running back Marshawn Lynch.
He is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 77.5 yards per game this season. But he is also two weeks removed from back-to-back 120-plus rushing yard performances against the New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs in Weeks 10 and 11, respectively.
"#49ers coach Jim Harbaugh on #Seahawks Marshawn Lynch: "Beast Mode ... he is a football player, hard, aggressive, tough runner, talented."
— Janie McCauley (@JanieMcCAP) November 24, 2014"
This could be where San Francisco misses the tandem of linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. So critical in stopping the run at the point of attack, these two are still greatly missed regardless of the playmaking abilities of Chris Borland and Michael Wilhoite.
The 49ers have allowed two 100-plus rushers in the last three weeks—Mark Ingram of the New Orleans Saints and Alfred Morris of the Washington Redskins.
Lynch will do his damage. The question will be exactly how much.
Chris Culliver vs. Doug Baldwin
With cornerback Tramaine Brock questionable—and San Francisco's secondary thin already—a crucial matchup will emanate between Seattle's No. 1 receiver Doug Baldwin and 49ers corner Chris Culliver.
Perrish Cox will likely retain his spot as San Francisco's nickel corner, which means there should be a number of one-on-one matchups between Culliver and Baldwin. Culliver was on injured reserve in 2013, so he missed all three contests with the Seahawks.
Baldwin has 491 receiving yards on 46 catches. Culliver has two interceptions and nine passes defended.
Which player gets the edge on Thursday?
49ers Pass Rush vs. Seahawks O-Line
Finally, the 49ers have a pass rush.
We'll get to Aldon Smith in a moment, but let's take a brief look on what San Francisco has done since his return. Prior to Week 11, the 49ers had just 15 sacks on the year. Rookie Aaron Lynch was one of the few bright spots in what was otherwise an underwhelming pass-rushing unit.
Since Smith's return, the 49ers have generated seven sacks—two against New York and five against Washington.
With Smith frequently drawing multiple blockers, guys like Lynch, Justin Smith and Ray McDonald have all been able to find the quarterback.
Quarterback Russell Wilson was sacked seven times in Seattle's 19-3 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12:
"Russell Wilson was sacked 7 times on Sunday vs. the #Cardinals. Lots of openings should come this Thursday. #49ers
— Christian Gin (@Christian_Gin) November 25, 2014"
On the season, Seattle's offensive line has given up 27 sacks—tied for 12th most in the NFL.
X-Factor of the Week: LB Aldon Smith
It's a fair statement that San Francisco's defense will have to win this game on Thursday. With the offense being a major question, the defense will have to limit what the Seahawks try to do in this crucial contest.
Enter Aldon Smith.
With him in the mix, San Francisco has been afforded the luxury of not having to blitz as frequently and leaving more defenders back in coverage—an aspect pointed out by Jeff Deeney of Pro Football Focus:
"#49ers blitz percentage before Aldon Smith (9 games): 19.5%, two games with Aldon back: 9.1%.
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) November 25, 2014"
Against Seattle, Smith also has a tremendous history. The fourth-year pro has totaled six sacks in six career games against the Seahawks:
"#49ers LB @AldonSmith has 6 sacks in his past 6 games vs. Seattle.
— Taylor Price (@TaylorPrice) November 25, 2014"
Combine this with the 27 allowed sacks given up by the Seahawks this year, and it's easy to assume that Smith will be a factor.
But he could very well be the factor that decides this game.
Prediction
5 of 5
Stating that Thursday's contest will be a defensive showdown is kind of like saying water is wet.
Both San Francisco and Seattle's defenses will be the primary factor in determining who goes home with win No. 8.
For the 49ers, the question will be whether they can get their offense into an effective rhythm that, at least, can muster up enough points to pull out a victory. Ugly, low-scoring wins against teams like the Giants and Redskins don't inspire much confidence.
But San Francisco will be perfectly happy with a limited offensive performance as long as it comes away with the victory.
Defensively, these two teams stand neck-and-neck, although the 49ers have an edge in sacks and interceptions.
"Seahawks rank 1st in NFL in total defense; 49ers are second. Seahawks’ offense is 13th; 49ers are 19th.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) November 25, 2014"
Yet, as is so often the case between division rivals, the victor will be the team that comes away with the fewest mistakes, generates more turnovers and wins the critical time-of-possession battle.
Home-field advantage plays into the 49ers' favor here, at least to a certain extent.
The Seahawks are 2-3 on the road this season. San Francisco is 3-2 at Levi's Stadium. But there will be those who question Seattle's ability to win on the road. It's nothing new.
Despite all the hype, matchups and media attention that will follow this game, the likelihood is that Week 13's contest will be a defensive, ground-and-pound battle between two 7-4 franchises that are vying for the same thing—a playoff berth.
Oh, and they don't like each other much.
With playoff implications on the line, let's look for a narrow 49ers victory over their hated rivals. San Francisco has shown the ability to win close games. This one will fit the bill.
Prediction: 49ers 19, Seahawks 13
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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