Charlotte Hornets' Disappointing Start Is Cause for Real Concern
The Charlotte Hornets should be several steps into their Eastern Conference climb by this point.
Instead, they still haven't answered opportunity's knock and are now at risk of plateauing at—or even below—mediocrity.
It's hard to say exactly where everything started going wrong. The Hornets appeared to be making all the right calls, everything from returning their iconic teal-and-purple threads to buying low on intriguing options in free agency (Lance Stephenson) and on draft night (Noah Vonleh).
The Hornets had a buzz, and not only due to their smart decision of ditching the Bobcats moniker they had carried the previous 10 seasons, all but two of which ended without a playoff berth.
The stage appeared set for a rather substantial breakthrough. After all, the Hornets had rattled off 43 wins last season during head coach Steve Clifford's first year on the job. Their offense was of the hit-or-more-often-miss variety, but their dominant defense (sixth in efficiency) helped them overcome their struggles to score.
With an identity established and three cornerstones in place with Clifford, All-NBA third-teamer Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker, the Hornets hit the offseason with a clear plan of what they needed: more offense.
They left the first round of the draft with Vonleh's towering offensive potential and P.J. Hairston's polished scoring skills, earning an "A-" grade from USA Today's Adi Joseph, who said the Hornets "did what they needed to do in this draft."
With Vonleh and 2013 lottery pick Cody Zeller on the roster, Charlotte chose to let Josh McRoberts walk in free agency. After making an unsuccessful run at Utah Jazz swingman Gordon Hayward, the Hornets split their free-agent funds between Stephenson (three years, $27 million), stretch forward Marvin Williams (two years, $14 million) and reserve point guard Brian Roberts (two years, $5.5 million).
Roberts and Williams addressed specific needs, while the fiery Stephenson stood alone as the organization's potential springboard to relevance.
Stephenson came after a successful season with the defensively disciplined, offensively challenged Indiana Pacers. The league leader with five triple-doubles, he seemed like the jack-of-all-trades Charlotte needed to get moving in the right direction.
He projected as a good enough shooter to keep defenders from crowding Jefferson, a strong enough playmaker to relieve some of Walker's distributing duties and a steady source of complementary scoring. Considering the profound impact Stephenson made on Indiana's offense, he seemed ready to do the same with Charlotte.
"The Hornets had an even worse offense and played even slower than Indiana last season," NBC Sports' Dan Feldman wrote before the season started. "They need Stephenson to freelance, to add a little spice to a too-stagnant attack."
The hope was that an active, effective Stephenson could help lighten the load felt by Walker. While the point guard was likely to use some quality, he would ideally become a more efficient offensive player in the process.
Well, Walker's counting stats have taken that expected hit. But his advanced categories have declined right along with them.
| 2013-14 | 17.7 | 6.1 | 49.9 | 16.8 | 103 | 105 |
| 2014-15 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 47.3 | 15.8 | 100 | 106 |
Unfortunately for the Hornets, he isn't their only perimeter player stumbling out of the gate.
"Walker's slippage wouldn't be so problematic if Stephenson were handling his transition from second or third fiddle in Indy to top perimeter option in Charlotte with aplomb," wrote Bleacher Report's Josh Martin. "But that hasn't been the case for Stephenson to say the least."
Stephenson has compiled one of this season's strangest stat sheets.
On the one hand, the 6'5" swingman has snared an incredible 8.2 rebounds and dished out 5.5 assists in only 34.3 minutes a night. He leads the team in both categories.
But he has coughed up 17.4 turnovers per 100 possessions. And his shooting percentages (36.9 from the field, 21.2 from deep) have dipped to their lowest levels since he claimed a full-time role in 2012-13.
He has said there is nothing to worry about, that these figures are a direct reflection of searching for his place within this offense.
"When you change from a different team, and you’re just trying to get comfortable and learn the offense. You’re gonna have slumps," he told Grantland's Zach Lowe. "Some guys come in right away and fit right in, but right now, I’m taking my time and learning the offense."
In his attempt to learn the offense, Stephenson has struggled fitting his talents within this system. He saw just seven second-half minutes during the Hornets' 113-92 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on November 24. Charlotte's offense had a rough night all around, but Clifford thought it looked worse when Stephenson was out there.
"Tonight against a defense like that, the ball can't stick," Clifford told reporters after the game. "When Brian Roberts is out there with Kemba or Gary [Neal], that would be our best offensive team."
That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Hornets' $9 million man. Nor should it be, given the way he has played.
Charlotte's top two players in terms of minutes (Walker and Stephenson) both own sub-39 field-goal percentages. The pair attempt more than 24 shots a night, leaving plenty of points on the floor for the Hornets.
Their offensive problems have not been corrected. In fact, they rank one spot lower in terms of efficiency (25th) than they did last season (24th). They sit 25th in field-goal percentage (43.5) and 24th from beyond the arc (32.6).
This offense scares no one, and suddenly, neither does this defense. The Hornets have been nearly as bad on that end of the floor, ranking 23rd in efficiency and 25th in field-goal percentage allowed.
All of this has kept Charlotte from finding any consistency in its approach.
The Hornets haven't been a good team opening or closing games. Their minus-6.7 first-quarter net rating ranks 22nd overall. They own a minus-10.1 net rating in the final frame, which is seventh worst in the league, per NBA.com (media subscription required).
With no real foundation to fall back on, the Hornets haven't been able to string anything together outside of losses. They had a three-game losing streak earlier this season and are currently trapped in a six-game skid.
That is disheartening, to say the least, since a strong start could have vaulted Charlotte up the East's very scalable standings.
Only two teams have a winning percentage above .650 (compared to six in the West), neither of which are the Chicago Bulls or the Cleveland Cavaliers. Those two on-paper contenders are going to make their run at some point. If the Hornets could have stormed out of the gate, they could have given themselves a puncher's chance to stick around at or near the front of this race.
Instead, Charlotte has limped out to a 4-11 mark, which tops only five total teams. Making matters worse, the Hornets let a lot of those losses slip away. They squandered a seven-point third-quarter lead against the then-winless Los Angeles Lakers, they blew a 23-point advantage in a two-point loss to the Portland Trail Blazers and wasted an eight-point fourth-quarter lead in a one-point loss to the Miami Heat.
Those losses could very well come back to haunt the Hornets. Just a handful of bad breaks can spoil an otherwise impressive season. Had Charlotte won 45 games instead of 43 in 2013-14, it would have opened the playoffs against the undermanned Bulls instead of a Miami Heat team coming off back-to-back world titles.
There's still time left to get things back on track, but those losses will stain their resume throughout the season.
However, that's not to suggest the Hornets should abandon hope. There are still reasons to feel relatively optimistic.
Charlotte has not opened with an easy slate. According to ESPN.com, the Hornets have faced the league's fourth-hardest schedule so far. They have only had former No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (foot) available for six games. Hairston (ankle) has missed the past four contests.
Add the combined struggles of Walker and Stephenson to the equation, and the team's troubling start becomes easier to understand.
But the real source of excitement for the rest of the season is the same that fueled hopes last year. This conference is so shallow, the Hornets' early issues may not hold major long-term implications.
As both Clifford and Clippers coach Doc Rivers noted, per Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer, the Hornets aren't exactly under the gun.
"Clippers coach Doc Rivers and Hornets coach Steve Clifford said, in separate and totally unrelated interviews (Doc chatting pre-game and Cliff talking post-game) that the Hornets have a different margin for error in the Eastern Conference.
That’s not an excuse for the Hornets going 4-11, yet it is also accurate. As of tonight 10 of 15 teams in the Eastern Conference are below .500. You don’t think that suggests 15 games into the season, when five of the top 10 players are new, that they might figure it out and make the playoffs again this season?
"
That possibility absolutely exists, especially once the roster gets healthier and the newcomers grow more comfortable.
But the Hornets should be aiming higher than a return trip to the opening round. Building off last season's success doesn't mean merely repeating it, especially with Jefferson moving toward his 30th birthday.
They need to make their move sooner than later. This rocky beginning decreased their margin for error, so a concerning start could become catastrophic if their problems are not corrected quickly.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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