Does Jeff Green Have a Long-Term Future with Boston Celtics?
BOSTON — Jeff Green has surely heard his name discussed in countless trade rumors over his seven-year career as a pro. It's a given for most players in today’s NBA, especially when they're playing for a rebuilding team like the Boston Celtics.
But on Sunday night, following a 94-88 Celtics loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, Green caught wind of a rumor that was particularly alarming to him. A report from CSNNE.com surfaced over the weekend that discussed the veteran’s rising trade value, as well as Green’s frustration with Boston’s recent stretch of losses. Some national bloggers connected those separate components of the story and wrote Green’s frustration with the team's play may mean the veteran wants out of Boston.
A friend texted Green about the report, and the 28-year-old forward immediately took it upon himself to dismiss the rumors by making a statement to the assembled media in the team’s locker room.
“Before you start,” Green said, “I just want to clear the air about some B.S. rumor that came out. I don’t know if the person who made this article is in this (media scrum), but the rumor about me wanting to get traded is definitely false. I said I was frustrated with losing, not frustrated with the team. So the words didn’t come from my mouth. I’d appreciate it if you not write a dumbass article like that.”
Green’s strong sentiments quickly cleared up any misnomers about his intention to remain with the team, but they also opened a door to an intriguing question: does Green have a future in Boston beyond this season? The particulars surrounding Green’s contract situation, his improved performance, Boston’s rebuild, and looming changes to the salary cap make that very tricky to answer.
The Contract
The athletic forward is currently earning $9.2 million in the third season of a four-year, $36 million contract he signed with Boston back in 2012. A $9.2 million player option awaits Green for the 2015-16 season, making this season, in effect, a contract year for the veteran forward.
Many pundits have argued Green’s contract was an overpay by Celtics president Danny Ainge from the day the forward signed it, citing Green's uneven play. However, a new, fast-paced offense implemented by head coach Brad Stevens this year has caused a dramatic shift, and the versatile wing is playing some of his best basketball as a pro.
Green is averaging a career-best 18.2 points per game through 12 contests. More importantly, the hybrid wing has been consistent with his production, scoring double figures in every game. Green’s all-around play has been solid as well. His turnovers are down to just 1.6 per game, and he’s posted career highs in free-throw attempts per game (4.7) and PER (16.6).
If Green can sustain this level of production, he'll be left with an interesting decision—whether to exercise his player option at the end of this season. In a changing NBA landscape, Green will have to do more than just consider his own performance when deciding on his next move.
Salary Cap Uncertainty
All looming free agents in the NBA are waiting with a watchful eye towards next summer, as the league and players association sort out just how the league’s new $2.7 billion TV deal will impact the salary cap.
Grantland’s Zach Lowe explored the ramifications of a couple potential scenarios involving a major hike of the current $63.06 million salary cap, based on the new deal.
"The league right now projects a jump to $66.5 million for 2015-16, a modest rise pegged to the final year of that modest $930 million TV deal. If the new TV deal kicks in for the 2016-17 season just shy of $2 billion, the cap could exceed that same $14 million leap, all the way to around $80-plus million, in a single year.
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Lowe also reported league officials are exploring the option of "smoothing," a process which would also tie the new TV deal revenue partially to the 2015-16 season.
That possibility would lead to higher revenues right away—and a higher salary cap from the league's current $66.5 million projection—during the 2015-16 season, creating a more gradual jump to an $80-plus million salary cap number in 2016.
Green’s value in the free-agent market could shift significantly based on either one of these scenarios. One line of thinking says it will likely be enticing for the young forward to enter free agency this summer and lock up another long-term deal before he hits age 30.
If the salary cap waits until the summer of 2016 to skyrocket to the $80 million mark, though, it may serve Green well to hit the market then and reap the benefits of a plethora of teams flush with money to spend under the higher cap. Green’s agent, David Falk, is very aware of this scenario, so a 2015-16 opt-in for Green can’t be ruled out, even if Green has a stellar 2014-15 season.
Role in the Rebuild?
While dispelling his rumored desire to be traded, Green also spoke candidly about his hope to remain in Boston long term.
“I want to stay here," Green said. "I love the team, I love the surroundings, the environment, the fans. I love being here.
“If I didn’t [love it], I wouldn’t have signed the contract to come back here [in 2012]. I’m happy where I’m at. I’m happy with the coach, the management, the front office, everybody. I haven’t been happy like this in years, so it’s a good place for me.”
Green’s content attitude and success within Boston’s new offense appear to make him a strong candidate to remain in Boston beyond this season, but the Celtics are at a very different place from a team-building standpoint than they were when they signed the explosive forward.
At the time of that signing, Green was the third or fourth scoring option on a team that had Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett doing the heavy lifting offensively. Once both of those stars departed in the summer of 2013, opposing defenses centered their efforts on limiting Green within Boston’s offense. While his scoring opportunities went up, his efficiency dropped dramatically. Green shot a career-low 41.2 percent from the field while taking 14.3 shots per game.
The return of a healthy Rajon Rondo and a new style of offense this year is causing some folks to give Green additional consideration in that “top dog” scoring role. However, it’s unclear if the Celtics would want to limit their options in free agency by tying themselves down to a lengthy new contract with a player like Green and his questionable track record of production.
If the Celtics are able to find a star to pair with Rondo via trade or free agency in the coming months, the need for a supporting piece like Green will remain in place. If no such move is made and Rondo opts for a change of scenery next season, it’s hard to imagine the Celtics keeping an expensive Green around as the rebuild progresses.
Will Boston Sell High?
Green’s improved play this season may also make him a likely trade candidate later this season if Boston’s slow start continues. There is a strong need for serviceable wings throughout the league, and the same CSNNE.com report this weekend had one league executive describing Green’s trade value as similarly “strong, if not stronger” than Rondo’s.
According to Zach Lowe of Grantland, the Washington Wizards and New Orleans Pelicans have inquired about Jeff Green in the past. A litany of other squads, including the Atlanta Hawks, Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets could use a versatile forward like Green in their rotations.
Green may want to remain in Boston for the foreseeable future, but his feelings mean little if Ainge doesn’t see a future for him in green beyond this season. If the Celtics elect to move forward without him, this will be the season in which Ainge must fetch a return for the veteran forward. In such a scenario, Ainge would look to add another future asset to the rebuilding toolbox and ensure Green doesn’t walk away in free agency for nothing.
At this point, it’s unlikely the Celtics have made a determination, about Green’s long-term future with the team. If the small forward continues to sustain his enhanced play over the upcoming months, Green’s desire to remain in Boston could make Ainge’s decision about Green’s future a challenging choice.
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