Breaking Down San Francisco 49ers' Late-Season Schedule
With five games remaining, the San Francisco 49ers (7-4) have lots of work to do to make the postseason.
Currently, the 49ers are in a three-way tie with the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions for the second and final wild-card spot in the NFC.
Realistically, to be safe, San Francisco will need to win four of five to finish with 11 wins. Winning out would guarantee a playoff spot. A 10-win season would likely not be good enough.
The 49ers are likely to be the favorite in four of the five remaining games, but we all know how point spreads can be misleading. Let's take a closer look at the five matchups.
Week 13 vs. Seattle (7-4)
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The Seahawks are coming off their best defensive performance of the season. They held Arizona running back Andre Ellington to 24 rushing yards en route to a 19-3 victory.
Overall, Seattle allows just 88.4 rushing yards per game, which is sixth best in the NFL.
The 49ers will need production from their running game. If they don't get it consistently, they'll be forced into obvious passing downs, which is a death sentence with Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett pass rushing from the edges.
The Seahawks' running game is No. 1 in yards per game. That's due in large part to quarterback Russell Wilson, who has 644 rushing yards (for reference, Frank Gore has 684). Wilson is bound to scramble for his fair share of yards. It's more important that the 49ers contain running back Marshawn Lynch, who has a history of bulldozing San Francisco.
If the 49ers contain Lynch, they'll have an opportunity to exploit Seattle's biggest weakness: the offensive line. Justin Britt, Alvin Bailey and J.R Sweezy all have a negative Pro Football Focus pass-rushing grade (subscription required).
The key to every Seahawks-49ers game is the trenches. The last five games in the series have been won by the team with more rushing yards from its running backs.
Week 14 @ Oakland (1-10)
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The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL for several reasons, but they do have a few strengths.
They allow just 3.8 yards per carry (eighth best in the NFL). They are No. 1 in red-zone TD percentage, per TeamRankings.com. And...Latavius Murray is coming off 112 yards and two touchdowns on four carries.
However, for every strength there are several weaknesses.
Fewest rushing yards in the NFL, worst turnover differential and third-worst passer rating against are among those weaknesses.
If the 49ers can take away Murray, they should have no issue containing Oakland's offense. However, don't be surprised if Oakland hangs around in this matchup.
The Raiders have had six games decided by seven points or fewer. The 49ers have won five games by six points or fewer.
Week 15 @ Seattle (7-4)
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All of the analysis on the Week 13 slide applies to this one, so for this slide I'll list some stats about the Seahawks' home dominance against the 49ers and the rest of the league.
- Since 2012, Seattle is 24-2 at home (playoffs included).
- Seattle is 3-0 at home against SF in that span with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points.
- Colin Kaepernick in three starts at CenturyLink Field: 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 2 lost fumbles
- Frank Gore in last three CenturyLink Field games: 26 carries, 58 yards, 0 TDs
- Marshawn Lynch in last three home games vs. SF: 76 carries, 318 yards, 6 total TDs
To be fair, the last time these teams met in CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks held on for a 23-17 victory to advance to the Super Bowl.
Still, the Seahawks will be the favorite, and rightfully so. Even in that NFC title game, Gore rushed for only 14 yards on 11 carries. Kaepernick picked up the slack and then some by running for 130 yards, but Kap's highest rushing total since then is 64 yards.
If the 49ers get nothing out of Gore, they'll once again get swallowed by Seattle's crowd noise and pass rush.
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Week 16 vs. San Diego (7-4)
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San Diego got its running game going against the Rams on Sunday, which is bad news for the rest of the teams on its schedule.
Ryan Mathews rushed 12 times for 105 yards and a touchdown. And wide receiver Keenan Allen (despite two lost fumbles) broke the 100-yard barrier for the second time this season.
Still, this isn't the Chargers team that started the season 5-1 with a plus-73 point differential.
After scoring at least 30 points in four of their first six games, the Chargers haven't reached that total since. Philip Rivers' play has fallen off, and his health may be a reason.
On Nov. 16, tight end Antonio Gates said Rivers has been playing with a "severe rib injury," per Michael Gehlken of U-T San Diego.
The Chargers have Pro Football Focus' third-worst pass-blocking grade. Tackles D.J. Fluker and King Dunlap will have issues containing Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch.
The 49ers struggled pass blocking against the Chargers in the preseason. I feel like a broken record, but Frank Gore's effectiveness will be key.
Week 17 vs. Arizona (9-2)
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Drew Stanton threw two touchdown passes in Arizona's first two drives against the Detroit Lions on Nov. 16. Since, the Cardinals have scored three points on 19 drives.
That's the big question for the Cardinals. Will they manufacture enough points to hold on to their NFC West lead?
There's a chance this game will be for a playoff spot or division title. Stanton carved the 49ers up for 244 passing yards and two touchdowns in Arizona's 23-14 Week 3 win, but he hasn't performed that well since.
With the second-worst rushing offense in the league, the Cardinals will have issues topping 20 points again against San Francisco.
However, it's not like the 49ers have matchup advantages against Arizona's defense.
In their Week 3 meeting, Frank Gore had just 10 yards on six carries. San Francisco's offense scored no points in its last six drives after scoring touchdowns on its first two.
The stats suggest this one will be a defensive struggle. The 49ers have the edge at the quarterback position, which makes them the favorite.
Joseph Akeley is a San Francisco 49ers featured columnist. Follow Jakeley_BR on Twitter.
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