Updating the College Football Top 25 Rankings If Preseason Polls Didn't Exist
Week 13 of the 2014 college football season was far from the most active on the calendar. With SEC teams facing as many FCS opponents as FBS foes (four each), the week was a chance for some teams to breathe, relax and get ready for the final full week of the regular season, followed by a weekend full of conference championships.
That said, there was still plenty of activity on the field. Former No. 8 Ole Miss was blanked 30-0 at Arkansas, and fellow Top 25 teams Nebraska, Southern California and Utah all fell as well. When the new Associated Press Top 25 poll came out Sunday afternoon, it looked somewhat different.
However, it was still shaped by the preseason polls which began the season.
What would the Top 25 look like if there were no preseason polls? What would it look like if it came out for the first time Sunday afternoon?
Here’s a crack at what we think it might be.
25. Boise State
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Bryan Harsin is enjoying his return to Boise State. The Broncos’ former longtime offensive coordinator was hired following Chris Petersen’s departure to Washington, and after a 4-2 start, Boise has won five consecutive games, scoring at least 37 points in every game. The Broncos average 40 points per game, which ranks 10th-best nationally.
With a win over Utah State, Boise will win the Mountain West’s Mountain Division and be the favorite to win the MWC title game over the West rep, which could be San Diego State, Fresno State, Nevada or Hawaii (all of whom enter the final week within one game of the division lead). Regardless, Harsin has had a successful debut in Boise.
24. Louisville
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Who says you can’t go home again? Bobby Petrino’s second tour of duty at Louisville has been quite a success. After going 41-9 as the Cardinals’ coach from 2003-06, Petrino left for ill-fated stops with the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons and at Arkansas, resurfacing last season at Western Kentucky before returning to Louisville for a second stop.
The Cardinals won’t win the ACC Atlantic at 8-3 (5-3) entering this week’s regular-season finale against rival Kentucky, but they’ve had an impressive season regardless. They pushed Florida State to the limit before falling 42-31 and got a key win at Notre Dame. Louisville should find itself in a solid postseason destination and has plenty to build on Petrino’s second time around.
23. Colorado State
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Jim McElwain has quietly had an impressive year in the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State is 10-1 and looks like one of the best group-of-five programs.
The Rams average 322.6 passing yards per game, which ranks sixth-best nationally, with senior quarterback Garrett Grayson throwing for 3,413 yards with 29 touchdowns against five interceptions. Former Alabama tailback Dee Hart has also been impressive, rolling up 1,139 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns.
However, Colorado State needs help to win its own division, thanks to a 37-24 loss to Boise State. The Rams must beat Air Force on Friday and hope that Utah State can upset the Broncos in Boise, no easy feat. Still, 2014 has been a special season in Fort Collins.
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22. Clemson
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Clemson’s season has been a tale of two offenses: with freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson and without him. When he’s been healthy, Watson has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, throwing for 1,197 yards with 12 touchdowns against two interceptions.
But he has missed most of five games with a broken finger and sprained lateral collateral knee ligament, which has left the offense in the less-than-capable hands of senior quarterback Cole Stoudt.
Stoudt has thrown for 1,576 yards and six touchdowns against nine interceptions. The fact that Clemson is 8-3 can be attributed to its stingy defense, which is allowing 17.6 points per game, eighth-best nationally.
Clemson can still make the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s representative if Florida State makes the College Football Playoff. To do so, the Tigers must be the ACC’s top-ranked remaining team in the College Football Playoff Top 25. It’s possible if the five-game losing streak to rival South Carolina is snapped this week and Georgia Tech falls to Georgia and then to FSU in the ACC title game.
21. Marshall
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Marshall’s 2014 season is the best story you probably haven’t seen. At 11-0 entering this week’s regular-season finale against Western Kentucky, the Thundering Herd, along with Florida State, are one of only two undefeated teams remaining in the FBS.
But Marshall hasn’t cracked the College Football Playoff Top 25 and has no chance of making the four-team playoff field, thanks to a weak schedule.
It hasn’t played a power-five opponent, and unless it is selected for the group-of-five spot in the playoff-affiliated bowls, it won’t do so this season. That’s unfortunate, since senior quarterback Rakeem Cato (28 touchdowns, eight interceptions) is the best quarterback you haven’t seen play.
That said, Marshall isn’t exactly offering a compelling argument for more respect. Last week, it was pushed to the limit by a 5-6 UAB team, needing a late defensive stand to escape Birmingham with a 23-18 victory. It’d be interesting to see what the Herd could do against a power-five team, but that doesn’t appear likely to happen this season.
20. Minnesota
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Jerry Kill has quietly built an impressive program in the Twin Cities. With one week remaining in the regular season, Minnesota is 8-3 and can win the Big Ten West title with a win at Wisconsin Saturday.
The Gophers suffered an inexplicable loss at Illinois, but there’s no shame in losing to TCU or Ohio State. Minnesota averages 228.9 rushing yards per game, No. 25 nationally, and senior tailback David Cobb has been one of the nation’s top rushers with 1,430 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Regardless of this week’s outcome, Minnesota should have a nice bowl destination on tap, a testament to Kill’s accomplishments with a once-downtrodden program.
19. Oklahoma
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Oklahoma began the season with huge expectations, ranked in every top 10 nationally after ending 2013 with a Sugar Bowl rout of Alabama. The Sooners haven’t come close to living up to those expectations, thanks to losses to TCU, Kansas State and Baylor, the latter two at home.
Sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight has missed the last two games with injuries, but even before that he was inconsistent, throwing 14 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
Regardless, freshman tailback Samaje Perine has emerged as one of the nation’s top runners. He has 1,428 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. He rolled up an FBS single-game record 427 rushing yards Saturday against Kansas, breaking Melvin Gordon’s one-week-old mark.
The Oklahoman's Jenni Carlson says Perine has earned the respect of his teammates.
“He’s so far ahead of his time,” linebacker Eric Striker said. “I’m mature, but I’m silly. He’s mature. He carries himself like he’s Benjamin Button, like he had a reverse life. If you ask me who I want to be when I grow up, it’s Samaje Perine.”
With a win over Oklahoma State in Bedlam and a bowl win, the Sooners can still reach 10 wins, but 2014 will wind up short of expectations.
18. Ole Miss
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What a difference a month makes. A month ago, Ole Miss was the toast of college football. A 7-0 record, punctuated by a home upset of Alabama, had the Rebels in the mix for the SEC title and a College Football Playoff berth. Now, the Rebels limp into the Egg Bowl losers of three of their last four, including a 30-0 humiliation at Arkansas.
Senior Bo Wallace is the SEC’s most experienced quarterback but simply wasn’t consistent enough to lead the Rebels to a championship. He has thrown for 2,789 yards with 22 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He has three games this season with multiple interceptions and had four turnovers Saturday at Arkansas.
Ole Miss can still salvage something special from the season by knocking Mississippi State out of playoff contention in the Egg Bowl, but that isn’t what the Rebs had in mind a month ago.
17. Missouri
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Missouri’s run to the SEC title game was one of the most improbable stories of the 2013 college football season. The fact that the Tigers are a win over Arkansas away from repeating the feat and representing the SEC East again in Atlanta is equally impressive.
Yes, a home loss to Big Ten cellar-dweller Indiana is embarrassing. So is a 34-0 whitewashing at Georgia’s hands. Otherwise, the Tigers have won every game they’re supposed to (every other game actually).
Sophomore quarterback Maty Mauk has battled through ups and downs in his first full season as a starter, throwing 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Gary Pinkel’s team has shown mental toughness, going 5-1 in games decided by 10 points or less. And that should be recognized.
16. Auburn
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Last season, all the breaks went Auburn’s way on a magical run to the BCS National Championship Game. Over the last month, that hasn’t been the case. Losses to Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Georgia knocked the Tigers out of the SEC West and College Football Playoff chases, and they enter this week’s Iron Bowl against Alabama playing only for bragging rights (which are, of course, incredibly meaningful within the Yellowhammer State’s borders).
Auburn has a powerful rushing attack led by senior Cameron Artis-Payne (1,405 yards, 11 touchdowns) that averages 266.9 yards per game, ninth-best nationally. Senior Nick Marshall is one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks. But the defense has at times struggled to get off the field and has clearly missed sophomore end Carl Lawson, who’ll miss the season with a torn ACL.
This season hasn’t been as special as 2013, but there’s still plenty to smile about on the Plains.
15. Georgia Tech
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A year ago at this time, it was fair to wonder if Paul Johnson’s tenure at Georgia Tech was nearing its end. The Yellow Jackets finished 7-6 following a Music City Bowl loss to Ole Miss, and quarterback Vad Lee transferred suddenly to FCS James Madison, leaving sophomore Justin Thomas to take over.
It turns out that wasn’t such a bad thing. Thomas has been a very capable leader, throwing for 1,396 yards with 15 touchdowns against four interceptions and also serving as Tech’s leading rusher with 827 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Tech’s flexbone option has flourished as usual, averaging 327.9 rushing yards per game, fourth-best nationally.
Tech clinched the ACC Coastal Division title and, at 9-2, will have a shot to end the regular season with double-digit wins with a victory over archrival Georgia this weekend. The buzz is back in Atlanta.
14. Wisconsin
12 of 25If you’re watching Wisconsin, chances are you’ve been enthralled by junior tailback Melvin Gordon. Gordon has emerged as a leading Heisman Trophy candidate with 2,109 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns. His 408-yard effort against Nebraska stood as the FBS single-game rushing record for seven days until Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine topped it with a 427-yard day against Kansas.
Regardless, the Badgers and Gordon are fun to watch. At 9-2, 6-1 in Big Ten play, they can win the West Division title by defeating Minnesota in this week’s season finale at Camp Randall Stadium.
While they haven’t found an answer at quarterback with either Joel Stave or Tanner McEvoy, a ground game that averages 343.5 yards per game and a defense that yields 16.1 points per game (both third nationally) have picked up the slack.
A Big Ten title remains well in reach for this team, which would be a big accomplishment given the 3-2 record following an ugly 20-14 loss to Northwestern.
13. Arizona State
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Has Todd Graham found a home in the desert? Arizona State fans certainly hope so. The much-traveled coach is one win away from his second consecutive 10-win season in Tempe, and the Sun Devils have an exciting offense that averages 37.2 points per game, No. 18 nationally.
D.J. Foster is one of the nation’s best dual-threat tailbacks, with 968 yards rushing and nine touchdowns as well as 52 receptions for 586 yards and three scores through the air. And wideout Jaelen Strong is one of the nation’s top passing game threats, with 71 receptions for 982 yards and nine touchdowns.
With a win over Arizona and a UCLA loss to Stanford, the Sun Devils would win the Pac-12 South. They’ve had highs (wins over Southern California and Notre Dame) balanced by disappointing defeats to UCLA and Oregon State. But 2014 has been overall a solid step forward.
12. Arizona
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Rich Rodriguez has done an impressive job at Arizona. In his third season, the Wildcats have developed into one of the Pac-12’s best teams, and they enter the final week of the Pac-12 season with a shot at the Pac-12 title; they’re 9-2 overall and share the South Division lead with Arizona State and UCLA.
With a win over Arizona State and a UCLA loss to Stanford, they’d win the division and face off with Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.
Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon has been very impressive, throwing for 3,216 yards with 25 touchdowns against seven interceptions and adding 329 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. And with fellow freshman Nick Wilson (1,085 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns) in the backfield, the Wildcats have the makings of a potent offense for the next several years.
Arizona has shown clear improvement this season, and a win over the rival Sun Devils would really make the season special.
11. Kansas State
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Bill Snyder took Kansas State from one of college football’s most moribund outposts into a national power, and in his second tour of duty on the Wildcats’ sidelines, he has restored the roar in Manhattan.
The Wildcats enter the final two weeks of the season with a share of the Big 12 lead and a shot of at least sharing the Big 12 title (at 6-1, they’re tied with Baylor and TCU). K-State faces off with in-state rival Kansas this week before traveling to Waco to close the regular season. Win out and they’ll own at least a share of the league title.
Senior quarterback Jake Waters has been a steady leader, and he has one of the nation’s most underrated playmakers in wideout Tyler Lockett (70 receptions, 1,074 yards, six touchdowns). K-State might not make the College Football Playoff, but this season has been nothing to complain about, given the only losses came to Auburn and TCU.
10. Michigan State
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Following last season’s 13-1 record, Big Ten title and Rose Bowl victory, Michigan State entered this season with designs on the College Football Playoff. By those standards, the Spartans’ 9-2 record entering this week’s regular-season finale against Penn State is a disappointment.
Michigan State led at Oregon in the third quarter before the Ducks scored the final 28 points of a 46-27 defeat. And Ohio State came into East Lansing and got revenge for 2013’s Big Ten title game loss in a 49-37 loss. So Mark Dantonio’s group is just playing for a double-digit win total and the best bowl possible, but a Big Ten title and playoff berth are out of the question.
Junior Connor Cook has been one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks, throwing for 2,720 yards with 21 touchdowns against five interceptions, and tailback Jeremy Langford (1,242 yards, 17 touchdowns) and wideout Tony Lippett (1,071 yards, 10 scores) make the offense go.
But there’ll be a lingering feeling that this season wasn’t all it could be when the dust settles.
9. Georgia
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When this season ends, Georgia coach Mark Richt might sit back and say, “What if?”
What if Todd Gurley had been available and healthy for the whole season?
What if the Bulldogs offense hadn’t melted down in crunch time at South Carolina?
As is, Georgia is 9-2 entering this week’s rivalry game against Georgia Tech, needing a Missouri loss against Arkansas to win the SEC East and make the SEC title game against Alabama or Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs have impressive wins over Auburn, Clemson and Missouri, but they also have inexplicable losses to Florida and South Carolina, two of their biggest rivals who have a combined 12 wins between them.
Freshman tailback Nick Chubb (1,152 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns) has made up for Gurley’s absences, and UGA’s defense (which allows 20.5 points per game, No. 18 nationally) is improved under new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. Still, Georgia will spend the offseason wondering, “What if?”
8. UCLA
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At one point this fall, UCLA’s season looked a bit disappointing. Following home losses to Utah and Oregon, the Bruins (considered College Football Playoff dark horses) were 4-2 and completely out of the Top 25, much less the playoff picture. Since then, however, they’ve won five consecutive games and find themselves back in the Top 10 as the calendar pushes toward December.
Junior quarterback Brett Hundley has been impressive in what is likely his final collegiate season. He has 2,873 passing yards with 20 touchdowns against five interceptions and is an excellent dual threat, with 566 rushing yards and eight scores on the ground. UCLA is well-balanced: Tailback Paul Perkins has 1,262 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
With a win over Stanford Friday, UCLA would win the Pac-12 South as it owns the tiebreaker over co-leaders Arizona and Arizona State, both of whom it has defeated. That’d set up a Pac-12 title rematch with Oregon, who defeated the Bruins 42-30 earlier this season at the Rose Bowl. Upset the Ducks and the Bruins could potentially make a case for the playoff.
7. Ohio State
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At 10-1, Ohio State is the perfect example of a team which is far better in November than it was in August. It would’ve been easy to write off the Buckeyes following a 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech, which seemingly looks worse by the week thanks to the 5-6 Hokies’ ugly season.
Since then, however, only two teams have come within a touchdown of Urban Meyer’s bunch (Penn State and Minnesota).
Redshirt freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett has developed into one of the nation’s top overall signal-callers: He has 2,658 passing yards with 33 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and 849 rushing yards with nine touchdowns on the ground. His development will give Meyer a very interesting quandary when senior quarterback Braxton Miller returns from a redshirt season forced by shoulder surgery.
The Buckeyes have already clinched the Big Ten East Division and qualified for the Big Ten title game against either Minnesota or Wisconsin. They could make a compelling case for a College Football Playoff bid with a win over Michigan and a Big Ten title but might also need a little chaos ahead of them to slip into the field.
6. TCU
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TCU has authored the most impressive turnaround story in college football. Following a 4-8 season, veteran coach Gary Patterson turned to an air-raid-style spread offense with exceptional results. The Horned Frogs are scoring 45.9 points per game, which is second nationally, and pass for 323.6 yards per game, eighth nationally.
Multitalented junior quarterback Trevone Boykin has found a home under center. He has thrown for 3,024 yards with 24 touchdowns against five interceptions, adding 548 rushing yards and seven ground scores.
TCU’s only blemish came at Baylor, with the Frogs blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter edge in a 61-58 defeat. That could work against them come College Football Playoff selection time. They do own impressive wins over Kansas State, Minnesota and Oklahoma.
With very winnable games left against Texas and Iowa State, TCU looks headed for a tie for the league title with Baylor. It’ll let the College Football Playoff selection committee sort it out from there.
5. Baylor
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Following Saturday’s 49-28 blowout of Oklahoma State, Baylor (9-1) remains in excellent position to claim a College Football Playoff berth. The Bears average 50 points per game, tops nationally, and pass for 345 yards per game, fourth-best nationally.
Senior quarterback Bryce Petty has thrown for 2,683 yards with 23 touchdowns against five interceptions, and tailback Shock Linwood leads an excellent backfield. He has 977 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns on the ground.
The Bears’ lone loss came by two touchdowns at West Virginia, and while their nonconference slate of FCS Northwestern State, Buffalo and SMU is one of the nation’s weakest, they have taken care of business otherwise. A 24-point fourth-quarter rally for a 61-58 win over TCU gave the Horned Frogs their only loss, which gives them the slight edge over the Frogs.
With home games left against Texas Tech and Kansas State remaining, Baylor looks like a strong bet to finish 11-1, share the Big 12 title and make a compelling case for a College Football Playoff berth.
4. Mississippi State
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Mississippi State has been one of the 2014 season’s best stories. A team that needed overtime wins in its last two games just to get bowl-eligible a season ago has developed into one of the nation’s top teams. The Bulldogs’ only loss came at top-ranked Alabama, and at one point they reeled off three consecutive wins over top-10 teams in LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn.
Junior quarterback Dak Prescott has been a revelation. He has thrown for 2,714 yards with 23 touchdowns against eight interceptions and added 891 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns as the team’s No. 2 rusher. MSU also has a stout defense that allows just 18.4 points per game, No. 11 nationally.
The Bulldogs can still win the SEC West with a win over Ole Miss and an Auburn upset of Alabama. Regardless, they're in prime position to claim a College Football Playoff spot.
3. Oregon
23 of 25At 10-1, Oregon has been one of the nation’s most impressive all-around teams. Only two teams have come within 12 points of the Ducks all season: Washington State (a 38-31 loser) and Arizona, which stunned the Ducks 31-24 in Eugene.
It must be noted that those games were played without senior left tackle Eric Fisher, one of the Pac-12’s top offensive linemen. With Fisher in the game, Oregon has been dominant. The Ducks average 45.8 points per game, which ranks No. 3 nationally.
Junior quarterback Marcus Mariota is a leading Heisman Trophy candidate with excellent skills both passing and running. He has 32 touchdowns against two interceptions with 3,103 yards passing and is also the Ducks’ No. 2 rusher with 597 yards and nine touchdowns. Freshman tailback Royce Freeman has been particularly impressive with 1,050 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
With only a rivalry match against Oregon State and then the Pac-12 title game against the South Division representative remaining (Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA are all tied at 6-2 in league play), Oregon looks like a strong bet to win the Pac-12 and snag a College Football Playoff bid.
2. Florida State
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A year ago, Florida State steamrolled everything in its path en route to a BCS National Championship. While FSU remains unbeaten at 11-0 this fall, that hasn’t been the Seminoles’ M.O. in 2014. Four of Florida State’s wins have come by six points or less, including Saturday’s hard-fought 20-17 victory over Boston College.
The Seminoles have overcome three double-digit road deficits and simply haven’t been as good as they were last year. Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde says the 'Noles are slipping in his playoff bracket.
Still, they’re one of only two undefeated teams remaining in the FBS ranks (Marshall is the other), and that remains impressive.
Sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston’s stats are not as impressive as they were in his Heisman Trophy-winning campaign of 2013—he has 19 touchdowns against 13 interceptions after throwing 40 touchdowns against 10 picks last fall—but he remains a capable leader who has led multiple second-half rallies.
FSU ranks No. 107 nationally in rushing yards per game, but freshman Dalvin Cook has shown flashes of brilliance recently. And don’t forget about senior receiver Rashad Greene (83 receptions, 1,148 yards, five touchdowns) who is FSU’s all-time receptions and receiving yards leader.
Only a home date against Florida and an ACC title game match with Georgia Tech will keep the Seminoles from 13-0 and a College Football Playoff bid. They’re far from dominant, but pencil FSU into the four-team field.
1. Alabama
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In a season that hasn’t featured any truly dominant teams, Alabama (10-1) has looked like the closest thing to a complete team. The Crimson Tide have reloaded on defense, led by junior safety Landon Collins, and are allowing foes only 14.5 points per game, which ranks second nationally.
A 23-17 loss at Ole Miss was the only blemish, but the Tide responded with six consecutive wins highlighted by a 25-20 home win over then-No. 1 Mississippi State that really wasn’t even that close (Alabama led 25-6 in the fourth quarter).
The Tide have a balanced offense led by star junior receiver Amari Cooper (90 receptions, 1,349 yards, 11 touchdowns), who has become the best target for first-year senior starter Blake Sims (2,676 yards, 20 touchdowns, four interceptions). Tailbacks T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry form a two-headed monster, combining for 1,440 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Alabama’s path to the College Football Playoff is clear: beat Auburn in a home Iron Bowl showdown and either Georgia or Missouri in the SEC title game. Don’t bet against that right now.
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