Updated Chances for Baltimore Orioles to Sign Top 4 Remaining Free-Agent Targets

It's been nearly a month since the conclusion of the 2014 World Series and the start of free agency, and the Baltimore Orioles still have yet to make a groundbreaking move.

The Orioles have signed a slew of minor leaguers over the past week, which included the signing of shortstop Rey Navarro on Saturday.

Navarro, who was originally signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2007, is a switch-hitting shortstop that is known for his plus defense.

These moves for minor leaguers can potentially flourish into something much greater if executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette's recent history repeats itself.

However, the Orioles' main priority at the moment is to attempt to bring back at least one of their handful of free agents in order to keep their roster of players that reached the ALCS in tact.

The chances for bringing back each individual vary immensely considering factors such as potential gain, club loyalty and salary that is able to be spent by the organization.

Here is a look into the chances of signing Baltimore's top four free-agent targets, which includes one outlier that is not one of the club's free agents.

Nelson Cruz, DH/LF

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

While the Orioles certainly hope to bring back their home run leader from 2014, they won't go out of their way to re-sign Nelson Cruz to a contract longer than what they are willing to commit.

According to The Baltimore Sun's Eduardo A. Encina, the Orioles and Cruz met earlier this month, and while Cruz declined a three-year offer earlier, both sides remained open to getting a deal done.

Cruz, however, is hoping to land a four-year contract, but the Orioles may be hesitant to go to four years with the aging slugger.

It's understandable why, considering that Cruz will turn 35 early on in the 2015 season and had what will most likely be his career year in 2014.

The Orioles would be paying for that 2014 production, which would most likely never come to be in 2015 or any years following.

The fact that Cruz batted for a .249 average in the second half with only 12 homers is warning enough to avoid being handcuffed to the aging outfielder for half a decade.

Chances: 10 percent

Nick Markakis, RF

Nick Wass/Associated Press

As it stands now, Nick Markakis is the No. 1 priority for the Orioles to sign this offseason.

It's easy to see why, considering the career-long member of the Orioles has been so solid in each of the nine years he has played.

In fact, the 31-year-old right fielder has never had a season in which he hit for a sub-.270 batting average and has a career on-base percentage of .358.

Per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Markakis wants to remain in Baltimore, but the longer the O's wait, the greater the likelihood he will pursue outside options.

The two sides are still no closer to reaching a deal, and talks are merely "inching along."

Still, it's hard to see Markakis jumping ship and signing with another club considering how close the Orioles were to capturing postseason glory.

With stars in Matt Wieters and Manny Machado returning this season, Markakis may feel his greatest chance of getting a ring is to simply stay in Baltimore.

Chances: 85 percent

Andrew Miller, RP

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Andrew Miller is the most sought-after relief pitcher on the market this offseason, and chances don't look good for the Orioles to re-sign the shutdown lefty.

Miller had a career year in 2014, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while compiling a stellar strikeout-per-nine ratio of 15.3.

According to Miller's agent, Mark Rodgers, the longtime setup man wishes to be a closer, via ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (h/t HardballTalk's Aaron Gleeman):

"

I think Andrew’s evolution in the bullpen and his numbers this year fortify the belief in baseball that he’s a closer-in-waiting–and maybe the time for waiting is over.

"

Per Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports (h/t MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams), Miller has multiple three-year offers at the moment, which makes it more likely that he will end up with a four-year deal.

The Orioles will not overpay to compete with other clubs for Miller's services, given that they would still have a more than competent bullpen without him and especially given their history in signing closers in the past (Kevin Gregg).

Chances: 5 percent

Yasmany Tomas, OF

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The Orioles have been linked to Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who would be a great addition to an already elite offense and a capable fill-in for Cruz even given the fact it will be Tomas' first year in the big leagues.

Rosenthal tweeted previously that Tomas is drawing interest from the Orioles as well as two other teams who were set to visit him in the Dominican Republic last week, with others still weighing pursuit (h/t MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes and Steve Adams).

Per Jorge Arangure Jr. of Vice Sports (h/t MLB Trade Rumors), Tomas, however, will likely choose a team from the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners and Padres, who have all scouted him several times in the past.

It's also worth noting that Tomas' Dominican-based trainer, Raul Javier, stated that the slugger will sign "very soon."

The Orioles have a few options for the outfield if they choose not to sign any free agents.

For one, outfielder Alejandro de Aza will most likely be kept through arbitration as he proved in the end of last year to be a solid extra-base threat.

Minor league outfielder Dariel Alvarez is also one to keep an eye on to possibly land an outfield platoon in 2015, given his ability to make good contact and his unbelievable arm strength, with which he accrued 14 outfield assists last season. He has been described as "capable of firing baseballs like a railgun," per Camden Chat's Matt Shaffner.

With the hype surrounding Cuban superstars of late and the handful of teams already in on Tomas, the cash-strapped Orioles have little chance of landing Cuba's next big thing.

Chances: 2 percent

All stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.