Cleveland Browns vs. Atlanta Falcons: Complete Week 12 Preview for Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns will battle for playoff relevancy as the dirty birds return to the Georgia Dome this week for the first time in more than a month. Atlanta is currently 4-6 and leading the NFC South. The Falcons control their own destiny, as all they have to do is win games to claim the division.

If Atlanta can beat the Browns, it would only be for the fourth time in history. The Browns are currently 6-4, but they are at the bottom of their division. Luckily, the Falcons have already gotten their matchups with the Bengals and Ravens out of the way.

Atlanta has a shot to take control of its season this week. However, the Falcons have to show that they have the intestinal fortitude to really turn it around.

Week 11 Recap

When the Falcons beat the Panthers this past week, they showed two things. The good was how they never quit even after the Panthers came back and took the lead. The bad was that they let Carolina back in the game in the first place.

Atlanta finished the game with a 19-17 win after a back and forth battle that looked more like a "who really wants to win this division?" matchup than anything else. Atlanta wound up winning in the end due to more of Matt Ryan's heroics as he led his 17th fourth quarter comeback win of his career and 24th game winning drive in the fourth quarter.

Atlanta played Carolina very effectively and faces easier competition in the Browns in some ways. However, the Browns present some issues. Josh Gordon is better than any receiver on the Panthers, but the front seven is extremely banged up, with three starters being unlikely to play.

Luckily, the Falcons didn't have many injuries outside of Robert Alford breaking his wrist and likely being a one- or two-week inactive player. Atlanta should be riding high after taking the division lead, but at 4-6, it needs to have the attitude that every game is its own season. The Falcons did that last week and pulled it out in the end.

News and Notes

Rookie Devonta Freeman Is Getting an Expanded Role

Antone Smith went down for the year and is now on injured reserve. As a result, the Falcons will have to use Devonta Freeman as the primary change-of-pace back. He should take full advantage of his shot too. He spoke to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com about the excellent run he made in the third quarter against Carolina. 

"That’s what I do," Freeman said confidently. "That’s my game. Once I feel the game out and understand everything, I feel like if you just let me go out there and play, I’m going to dominate. I’m going to do my job. I’m going to go out there and contribute."

Freeman was one of my personal favorites in this past draft because he showed the ability to block, catch and run in college. Now that he's getting a shot to show it in the pros, the only reason for him to not perform would be that he is still adjusting due to being a rookie.

Atlanta will have to hope that he can provide more than Jacquizz Rodgers did through the last six games of the season. Freeman does have more natural speed, better size and better strength than Rodgers, and it's only a matter of time before the Falcons get the most out of Freeman.

Could the NFC South Champion Be 5-11?

Mathematically, yes. It is very possible for the best team in the NFC South to be 5-11 and hosting a playoff game. Atlanta needs to be the team to win the South. Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com noted that there are some ludicrous scenarios out there:

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That's right. If everything goes their way -- and with six weeks remaining, there are so many variables -- the Bucs could win the division at 6-10. The Panthers could win it with as few as five victories, as could the Falcons. It appears the Saints would need at least six victories to win the title, based on tiebreakers. (Note: I didn’t consider future ties in generating these scenarios.) 

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But this just feels very unlikely. The entire NFC South has tough schedules remaining, and Atlanta has a ton of tough games remaining—that is, if you look just at the records and not the matchups. Atlanta is a better team than most are giving it credit for. The Falcons had one of the toughest schedules in their almost two-month-long road trip through the NFC North, NFC South and London. Hopefully, it's better the rest of the way.

Is Atlanta a Long Shot to Win the NFC South?

Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution breaks down why he thinks the Falcons are a long shot to win the NFC South this year even though they are currently leading the division. He cites Football Outsiders, which notes that Atlanta has the lowest opposition DVOA rank out of the NFC South teams with the remaining schedule:

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The Falcons’ six remaining opponents have the highest combined winning percentage (.592) among NFC South opponents. The teams the Falcons will face have the highest average ranking for yards per play (13.7) among the division, are tied for the highest average ranking for yards per play allowed (20.8) and have the best average DVOA ranking (15.2).

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However, Atlanta's toughest part of the schedule is already done. Despite going 2-1 in the Georgia Dome through the first 10 games, the Falcons went 2-5 in any game outside of the dome. The Falcons will also play another game indoors on their trip to New Orleans.

With five indoor games and four at home, the Falcons should at least go down fighting if they are going to go down. The team plays much better inside of domes, and should the Falcons have an ability to go on a run, it will be because they earned the right inside their own dome.

Injury Report

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Pos	Name	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Game Status
RB	Steven Jackson	Illness	FP	DNP	FP	Probable
FB	Patrick DiMarco	Illness	FP	DNP	FP	Probable
WR	Julio Jones	Illness	DNP	DNP	FP	Probable
WR	Harry Douglas	Foot	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
WR	Devin Hester	Wrist	FP	FP	FP	Probable
OT	Jonathan Scott	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
OG	Jon Asamoah	Shoulder	LP	FP	FP	Probable
DT	Jonathan Babineaux	Knee	FP	FP	FP	Probable
CB	Robert Alford	Wrist	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out

*All injury statuses from the Atlanta Falcons official website.

DNP: Did Not Practice

LP: Limited Participation in Practice

FP: Full Participation in Practice

Despite missing practices throughout the week with sickness, Steven Jackson, Patrick DiMarco and Julio Jones all look like they are going to play. Harry Douglas and Devin Hester have been fighting their own injuries, but they look ready too. The same goes for Jon Asamoah and Jonathan Babineaux.

Jonathan Scott being ruled out is a bit irrelevant, as he hasn't been active since signing with the Falcons. However, Robert Alford's absence will be tough for the Falcons. He's easily their second-best cornerback and the perfect person to match up with Andrew Hawkins.

Instead, Josh Wilson, Robert McClain or Javier Arenas will have to take over while he's out. Arenas hasn't been active all year and has some fresh legs coming into the 11th game of the season. McClain and Wilson have both been primarily nickel corners, but with Alford out, McClain looks like the next man up.

The best injury news of note for this week's game is that Jonathan Massaquoi was listed on it all week and was a full participant in practices. He is easily the Falcons' best pass-rusher, and with the rest of the defensive line finally creating penetration, Atlanta could finally have a breakout game from him.

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

Julio Jones vs. Joe Haden

Julio Jones is arguably a top-five receiver in the NFL when the Falcons offense is clicking at 100 percent. He has the ability to beat a team at all three levels and can take one to the house from any point with his penchant for creating yards after the catch. 

Joe Haden has shown to be one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL and has shut down quite a few talented receivers. However, when it comes to natural talent, Jones plays like a much faster A.J. Green at times and could have the upper hand in this matchup.

Josh Gordon vs. Desmond Trufant

Josh Gordon is going to be starting his first game since coming off a 10-game suspension for yet another positive marijuana test. Atlanta needs to focus its coverages his way, as Gordon is the only true option who poses a threat at every level of the field.

Desmond Trufant is coming off another solid game and has looked like one of the top 10 corners in the NFL with his play this season. His biggest issue comes from his lack of catching ability, and Gordon's speed and ability to create separation are unreal. He's the toughest receiver Trufant will play all year.

Atlanta's Offensive Line vs. Cleveland's Front Seven

Atlanta has had some success with its offensive line this season when it's healthy. Through the last two games, the Falcons have allowed just three sacks and five hits on the star quarterback through 88 dropbacks. Most of the hits and sacks came on overloads and blitzes too.

Cleveland has been banged up, and with Karlos Dansby doubtful, Phil Taylor out and Jabaal Sheard questionable, the front seven is missing some of its best players. Atlanta needs to capitalize by running it right down Cleveland's throat while also running some max protect for deep shots.

Falcons' X-Factor of the Week: Devonta Freeman

With Antone Smith on injured reserve due to a knee injury and the Falcons needing someone to take over his offensive snaps, Devonta Freeman will move into the spotlight. Going against a banged-up front seven that is missing its leader, Atlanta should be running enough to have Freeman on the field early and often.

Freeman could respond by having his best game of the season. He's been showing improvement as a pass-blocker from week to week, and if he can have a good game this week, the Falcons should be more than willing to elevate him to the same level as Jacquizz Rodgers, as far as snap count is concerned.

Prediction

Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images

With the Browns banged up and the Falcons playing at home and on a roll, Atlanta could surprise people this week with a win at home. Atlanta understands that it controls its own destiny and matches up well with Cleveland, as long as the Falcons go with what will work.

The offense needs to focus on running the ball a lot against a depleted front seven. A six-man offensive line arrangement mixed up with four-wide receiver sets at times could really confuse the defense and force Cleveland to be out of alignment often. 

On defense, Atlanta needs to focus on creating pressure against an offensive line that has struggled with protection calls without Alex Mack. The Falcons need to make sure they stuff the run against one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 28, Cleveland Browns 21

All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.

Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.

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