Seattle Seahawks Need to Resurrect Their Passing Offense and Save This Season

If a toolbox were to be filled with the NFL’s offenses, the Seattle Seahawks are the hammer.

Not the nail gun, with its combination of danger if not used properly and rapid efficiency. The nail gun completes the job with time to spare, and little physical effort is required.

No, the many passing-oriented teams wield their nail guns. The Seahawks prefer a simple tool, one that's nearly archaic around the NFL.

Each week they swing their rushing hammer with fury, content to pound away until the structure in front of them crumbles. The Seahawks aren't trying to be precision craftsmen. They would rather be the demolition crew that comes in beforehand.

That approach has mostly worked. Seattle leads the league in rushing yards per game (174.2), and it’s not close, with the Dallas Cowboys a distant second (153.2). The Seahawks also lead the league in yards per carry (5.5) and are second in rushing touchdowns (14).

But what if suddenly the Seahawks’ rushing hammer was taken away? What if instead a 6-4 team pushing for the playoffs has to rely heavily on an often discarded nail gun?

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Marshawn Lynch leads all running backs with 53 Missed Tackles forced on running plays in 2014. D. Murray 2nd with 51, L.Bell 3rd with 35.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 20, 2014"

When looking at Seattle’s remaining schedule it’s not difficult to see tough running soon becoming impossible running and a rushing team suddenly forced into being a passing team. And lately, passing hasn’t been kind to the Seahawks.

Just how much have they leaned on the running game while often treating a forward pass as a nuisance that needs to be tolerated? The Seahawks are third in run attempts (316) and 30th in pass attempts (292).

All of that has been powered by running back Marshawn Lynch, who’s still beastly with his 813 rushing yards (fourth) after 10 games, and by quarterback Russell Wilson with his masterful execution of read-option plays, using deception to maximize his chunk gains.

Wilson has recorded three 100-plus-yard games, and at 571 yards overall he's 14th on the league’s rushing leaderboard. That puts him on pace to run for over 900 yards, a plateau only four quarterbacks have reached.

But as a passer he’s been either brilliant or scattered, and often the vast space in between has led to an even heavier reliance on his legs.

Go ahead then and peer at the gauntlet that awaits as the currently eighth-seeded defending champs try to keep playing football in January. You’ll note that of the six games remaining, five are against division opponents.

But look at little closer, and you see a shift coming. The Seahawks’ rushing juggernaut is heading straight into reinforced brick walls. Four of them.

Since four of those final six games are against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers (two each), that’s when an abrupt offensive identity shift may have to happen. This isn’t exactly inviting for a team that’s lived on running, more running and even more running...

Offense/defense	Yds/Carry	Yds/Game	TDs
Seahawks offensively	5.5	174.2	14
49ers defensively	3.9	88.6	5
Cardinals defensively	3.5	80.5	5

That already seems like a fiery running death, and the stark contrast between the teams Seattle has played and the teams they will play makes it worse.

Rushing for 350 yards is an incredible feat of strength against any defense that does its defending in the NFL. But when the Seahawks did that in Week 10 to set a new single-game franchise record it came against the New York Giants. Their run defense is basically manned by a group of gummy bears, allowing a league-worst 145.0 yards per game.

Of the Seahawks’ 10 opponents so far, four are currently ranked 25th or worse defensively against the run (Giants, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders). The Carolina Panthers (23rd) aren’t much better, and neither are the St. Louis Rams (18th).

There’s also a chance the 49ers could have inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman back for a Week 15 meeting between the two teams, albeit perhaps a reaching one at this point. So if the expected happens and the Seahawks are forced into throwing far more, what exactly will their suddenly pass-happy offense look like during these desperate times?

Well, hopefully the past four games will be a memory.

Overall there’s been little downfield thrust from the Seahawks’ passing offense. The exception has been Wilson hauling out his extinguisher during fire-drill situations and doing something completely insane (his 60-yard pass to wide receiver Jermaine Kearse in Week 10 certainly fits that description).

But there’s been a downturn since Week 8 lowlighted by Wilson’s passer rating dipping to 53.7 against the Giants. Over that stretch he’s averaged 182 passing yards per game and, more importantly, only 6.3 yards per attempt. In 2013 Wilson finished with a per-attempt average of 8.2.

Of his 2,019 passing yards heading into Week 12, only 905 have come through the air, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That means less than half (44.8 percent) of Wilson’s passing has come from the power of his own arm.

It also means the Seahawks’ offensive approach has been highly restricted, focusing on opportunities for yards after the catch.

Player	Rank	Air Yards	% of total yards
Geno Smith	26	627	45.8
Blake Bortles	27	872	45.4
Russell Wilson	28	905	44.8
Alex Smith	29	867	43.4

Concentrating on those short-yardage looks isn’t at all a bad thing. The Chiefs have taken that strategy to an even further extreme, and it’s worked out just fine, thanks.

The concern, however, lies with an inability to either claw from behind if needed or establish a comfortable lead. Looking back on the Seahawks’ entire season, the point differential in six of their 10 games has been a touchdown or less.

Though Wilson has thrown some wayward deep balls, he’s not the problem. The flaw lies in structure.

The Seahawks simply don’t have an offense that’s designed to stretch the field deep with any consistency. Wilson has completed 182 passes so far this season, and only 11 have traveled 20 yards or more through the air, per PFF. For perspective, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is on the other end of the spectrum with 27 completions at that distance or more.

Over the past four weeks a running back has been the Seahawks’ leading receiver once (Lynch in Week 9), and Wilson is averaging 10.1 yards per completion when throwing to wide receivers.

This is a run-first unit, as it should be with Lynch using that mighty hammer and Wilson creating read-option chaos. But if they get shut down or slowed during the walk through fire that is the Seahawks’ remaining schedule, a running offense will need to morph into an effective passing offense. Fast.

If that happens, downfield separation could still be a problem along with protection. And winning could also be a problem.