Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 12 Preview for Houston
What a difference one week and a quarterback change make!
With just one victory, the Houston Texans have gone from feeling out of the race at 4-5 to being in the serious conversation of the playoff race at 5-5. Perhaps that means they were never really out of it before the win over Cleveland, but it would have been hard to sell me on their potential while Ryan Fitzpatrick was starting.
The Texans are currently favored according to OddsShark.com—as of Friday morning—to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals, and if they do so, they'll likely reach 8-5 before heading into their huge Week 15 matchup at Indianapolis. They play very winnable games against Tennessee and Jacksonville before taking on the Colts.
They'll be favored to reach 8-5. It's crazy how quickly fortunes can turn in the NFL when you have a competent quarterback.
At this point, it will probably take 10 wins to reach the playoffs, so if the Texans lose at Indianapolis—where they've never won in franchise history—they'll need to defeat both Baltimore and Jacksonville at home over their final two games assuming they reach 8-5—certainly not a daunting task.
The perfect scenario to help out the Texans' playoff odds would be for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC North, since the Texans will lose any tiebreaker scenario to them if both were in the wild-card mix, but the Texans own the tiebreaker over Cleveland and have a chance to win it with head-to-head games against Cincinnati and Baltimore.
The Colts' remaining schedule is pretty soft with games against Jacksonville, Tennessee and Washington, so catching them when the Colts will likely hold the tiebreaker as well probably won't happen.
However if the Texans take care of business against Jacksonville and Tennessee and win two home games against Baltimore and Cincinnati—all of which they'll probably be favored to win—then that gets them to 10 wins and should secure the Texans their third playoff berth in franchise history.
It's crazy how favorable the Texans' situation and formula to make the playoffs have become.
Of course Ryan Mallett has only had one start so far, so we shouldn't put the cart before the horse. Nevertheless, he did put up a great performance on the road and in the cold against a great pass defense. Mallett was accurate, decisive, confident and poised, and he basically checked off every box on the quarterback wish list against Cleveland.
The Bengals don't have a bad defense, but you could certainly argue that they have a worse pass defense than that of Cleveland—they rank ahead of Cincinnati in passing yards allowed and interceptions—so there's no reason to expect Mallett to take a step back with this game at home.
Invite everyone back on to the bandwagon. This is about to get fun if the Texans defeat Cincinnati this week.
Houston Texans' Week 11 Recap
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I guess this is the question we have to ask: What took so long?
That is, of course, a reference to finally starting Ryan Mallett—which I've been calling for on here since after the loss to the Indianapolis Colts—who had a breakout performance against the Cleveland Browns.
Actually saying it that way doesn't do it justice because it wasn't just any normal situation. It was on the road, in near freezing temperatures and against a pass defense that ranked first in opponent's completion percentage and first in quarterback rating and had intercepted the second-most passes coming into last week.
Mallett's stat line wasn't mind-blowing or comparable to the freak show Aaron Rodgers is putting out weekly, but he did finish the game 20-of-30 (66 percent) for 211 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Forget Mallett's strong arm for a moment. What was really impressive about how he played against Cleveland was his accuracy, command of the offense and how quickly he got rid of the football.
The Texans offensive line struggled with pass protection earlier this season, so how a quarterback with limited mobility like Mallett would hold up was a legit concern. As it turns out, however, maybe the struggles in pass protection were more about Ryan Fitzpatrick holding on to the ball too long and not the line.
"#Texans' Godsey credited Mallett not holding onto ball with helping O-line protect him. Clear that Fitzpatrick was holding on too long.
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) November 19, 2014"
Almost like clockwork, whenever Mallett's back foot would hit on his three-, five- or seven-step drop, the ball would come out immediately because he seemed to know exactly where to go with the ball based on the defensive look or which receiver won his battle.
"Ball is coming at Dre before he starts to break his route off. Mallett timing good for first start. #Texans https://t.co/PpCnDFRgt8
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014"
"Mallett getting rid of the ball on time and with a purpose. Hopkins first down. #Texans https://t.co/DtKAgfF4XB
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014"
His three-plus years of experience in this system really showed in how well he was able to operate the offense at a higher tempo than Fitzpatrick and how easily he seemed to make audibles to the play call or protection before each play and anticipate routes instead of having to wait for receivers to come wide open.
That's surprising for a player making his first start compared to a 10-year NFL veteran.
Alfred Blue also had a great game in support of his quarterback with 156 rushing yards on 36 carries. That total is one yard less than the Texans' highest single-game rushing effort this year, which came in Week 5 when Arian Foster ran for 157 yards against Dallas.
"Blue joins Mike Anderson and Marion Butts as the only rookies in NFL history from the 6th rd. or later w/ 35+ car. 150+ yds. in a game.
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014"
The stellar performance of the offensive line also deserves a mention here. Blue played well, but he also had some huge holes to run through. Blue does many things well, but he doesn't come close to Foster in terms of his vision for the cutback lane and the ability to rip off a huge run when the blocking isn't great.
I'm not saying that Blue isn't shifty at all, but he's more likely to run it up into the line when the blocking doesn't open a hole than cut across the grain and try to get to the corner on the other side like Foster did on that big run against Tennessee.
J.J. Watt had another stellar performance, which we have all come to expect. Watt finished the game with five tackles, one sack, three tackles for loss, a forced fumble, one fumble recovered and, of course, his ridiculous touchdown catch.
"Watt turning the corner with his speed. #Texans https://t.co/E5PVFYUtqK
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014 "
"Schwartz with no chance again Watt. Watt posts him up with his right arm and makes the play on Tate. #Texans https://t.co/eJqEAJGe7a
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014"
Seriously, he's an interior defensive lineman, and they split him out wide and threw him a fade pass like teams do with Calvin Johnson or Dez Bryant? Praising him gets repetitive, I'm sure, but he really is a rare and amazing athlete.
That wasn't an easy catch to make for Watt, who had to make an over-the-shoulder grab while falling down. It's no wonder the Madden developers had to finally make him eligible as a tight end on the game and actually gave him a pretty good rating.
"JJ Watt scores ANOTHER TD. What a catch! https://t.co/ubuWVbnhV2
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) November 16, 2014"
I say this in all seriousness: If Watt trained, practiced and played as a tight end exclusively, he'd be a Pro Bowl player at that position.
The run defense stepped up as well, as it held the Browns to just 58 yards on 2.8 yards per carry. Rookie back Isaiah Crowell had a solid game, but the Texans stuffed every other Browns back, including former Texan Ben Tate, who had negative-nine yards rushing on two attempts.
"Big Pickett doesn't let the center zone him. Then gets down the line to make a play. #Texans https://t.co/eJ72B51K5U
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014 "
"Pickett eating up two blockers. Cush triggers, Pagan makes a nice play. #Texans https://t.co/1XUmwK1mqh
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014"
The Houston Texans gave a total team effort on a big team victory. This was easily their biggest and most impressive victory of the season.
News and Notes
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J.J. Watt Named AFC Defensive Player of the Week
Watt's receiving the award wasn't a surprise, but what was a surprise to me was that it was only the second time that he's won the award this season.
"#Texans' J.J. Watt has been named AFC defensive player of the week twice this season. Fourth time in his career. #NFL
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) November 19, 2014"
Shouldn't they just name him the Defensive Player of the Year already? Do we really need to wait for a vote at the end of the year?
Against Cleveland last week, Watt was credited with five tackles, three tackles for loss, one sack, one forced fumble and one fumble recovered in the Texans' victory.
For the season, Watt has 9.5 sacks (seventh in the NFL), 14 tackles for loss (first in the NFL), seven passes defensed (first among NFL defensive linemen), two forced fumbles, four fumbles recovered, one blocked kick and two defensive touchdowns.
It's hard to believe there were eight weeks this season where he didn't win the AFC Defensive Player of the Week.
As far as putting Watt into the conversation for league MVP, he deserves to be discussed, but he has no shot of winning it over quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady. A defensive player hasn't won the award since Lawrence Taylor took it home in 1986.
Many of you reading this weren't alive in 1986, and I was only three. It's nearly impossible to take the award away from a quarterback on a great team who is having a great season.
Seriously, the Packers are probably going to win at least 11 games, and Rodgers has 28 touchdowns to just three interceptions—absurd numbers. He's rightfully the favorite to win the award.
Alfred Blue Will Split Reps This Week Even If Arian Foster Is Healthy
The rookie running back out of LSU played like a star last week against Cleveland but knows his role will be reduced when Arian Foster returns.
"“I know my role, my role is to back up Arian Foster, whether I get 5 carries or whatever,” Alfred Blue today. #Texans
— Adam Wexler (@awexler) November 19, 2014"
Foster is listed as questionable, but even if he plays, Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle expects the coaching staff to limit his carries with Blue splitting time as the Texans' ball-carrier.
The Texans should split carries as much as possible to save Foster's legs, but there are things he can do that Blue hasn't proved capable of at this point.
Mainly it's Foster's vision that separates him from other backs on the roster and around the league. Foster is able to create big runs even with bad blocking because of his great vision for the cutback lanes; Blue is more of a straightforward runner who almost always takes the run in the direction the play is called.
Better vision may develop, but at this point, Foster is obviously the more dynamic player. The Texans need him healthy to beat the better teams in the league.
Injury Report
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| Kareem Jackson | Knee | Out |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Questionable |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Knee | Probable |
| Brian Cushing | Knee | Probable |
| Johnathan Joseph | Knee | Probable |
| Akeem Dent | Neck | Questionable |
| Darryl Morris | Ankle | Probable |
| Jeff Tarpinian | Knee | Probable |
| Mike Mohamed | Hip | Probable |
| Ryan Mallett | Chest | Probable |
| Whitney Mercilus | Knee | Probable |
| Jonathan Grimes | Ankle | Probable |
| Justin Tuggle | Shoulder | Probable |
Source: Pro Football Reference
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Covering A.J. Green
With Kareem Jackson still out, the job of trying to at least slow down A.J. Green will likely go to veteran cornerback and former Cincinnati Bengal Johnathan Joseph.
For the first time since arguably Week 3 of the season, Green once again looked like one of the best receivers in the league when he torched the New Orleans Saints for six catches, 127 yards and one touchdown. Like Andre Johnson was at one time, Green is nearly impossible to cover with his combination of size and speed.
Joseph had one of his best games of the season last week against the Cleveland Browns, but even if he's at the top of his game, the Texans can't leave him on an island with Green. They should put a safety over the top to help out for most of the game.
Despite not allowing a pass for over 40 yards last week—though they did have a couple busts in coverage, including one for 35 yards and another for a 32-yard touchdown—the Texans pass defense still ranks last in the entire NFL in passes allowed over 40 yards.
After Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant, I would argue that Green is the third-best receiver in the NFL, so the Texans will need to focus their defensive game plan around slowing him down.
Stopping Jeremy Hill or Giovani Bernard
Which running back the Texans see more almost doesn't matter. They're both talented, and each is capable of having a huge game.
Giovani Bernard hasn't played since Week 8 and is listed as probable this week, but it hasn't mattered for Cincinnati as Jeremy Hill has rushed for 361 yards on 5.7 per carry over the three games Bernard missed.
Both backs present different issues as Bernard is more of a speed back who is also dangerous as a receiver, while Hill can run defenders over if he doesn't feel like trying to make them miss. The problem will be that with the attention the Texans have to give Green, they can't afford to drop a safety in the box as an extra run defender.
For the most part, they'll have to trust their front seven to get the job done. With a healthy Brian Cushing back, they are capable of playing well against the run without safety help as they proved last week by holding the Cleveland Browns to just 58 yards on 2.4 per carry.
Let's hope the front seven can get the job done again this week.
X-Factor of the Week: Alfred Blue
My gut feeling is that Arian Foster will play against the Cincinnati Bengals this week, since he practiced Wednesday. Even if he does, however, the Texans will need a solid performance out of their backup back Alfred Blue.
With the time it will likely take Foster to recover from another groin or hamstring injury, his season could be over if he re-aggravates either injury, so the Texans will need to limit his carries and rely on Blue more than they had earlier in the season.
If I were making the decisions, Blue would actually get the majority of the carries in the first half to save Foster for when the Texans have to have tough yards in the second half while they're hopefully trying to milk the clock.
Basically, save Foster for the most important carries of the game, and limit him to 15 or fewer attempts.
If the offensive line performs like it did last week, Blue is capable of getting the job done, so there's no need to unnecessarily tax Foster's legs and risk further injury.
The Texans will need Blue to be successful not only to keep Foster fresh but to also help out their young quarterback. The last thing they want to do against an experienced defense is become one-dimensional.
Prediction
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Despite their 6-3-1 record and current position as the third seed in the AFC, if the playoffs were to start this week, I don't buy that the Bengals are significantly better than the teams Houston went 3-0 against over the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
Over those three games, Houston-area native Andy Dalton completed just 57 percent of his passes for an average of 191 passing yards per game with one touchdown and four interceptions. Saying he's struggled against the Houston Texans would be an understatement.
Of course, those games were two years ago or more, but has Dalton done anything since to change your opinion of him? He's having his worst season since his rookie year in both completion percentage and quarterback rating and only has 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions. It doesn't look like much has changed.
The talent around him at running back has improved since the Texans and Bengals last played in 2012, but the Bengals defense has taken a step back according to the numbers.
Cincinnati's defense currently ranks 20th in passing yards allowed per game, 29th in sacks, 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, 28th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 25th in yards per rushing attempt allowed this season.
Other than giving up yards through the air, yards on the ground and not being able to pressure the quarterback, their defense is pretty good, right?
The Texans defense hasn't been great either over the full season, but my point was just to prove that the Bengals defense hasn't played up to the reputation it has had in previous seasons.
As Bill Parcells would say "you are what your record says your are," but by one measure, the Texans have had a better season than the Bengals.
Cincinnati has scored just three more points this season than it has allowed (224 to 221) for a point differential of 0.3 per game, which ranks 18th in the league. The Texans have scored 25 more points this year than they've allowed (229 to 204) for a point differential of 2.5 per game, which ranks 14th.
Despite what the records say, I think the Texans are the better team—especially with Ryan Mallett at quarterback instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick—and they're at home. The pick on this game seems pretty obvious.
Nothing in the NFL is a guarantee, so it may not turn out that way, but I'm going with Houston to win.
Prediction: Texans 23, Bengals 17
Follow me on Twitter for more opinion and analysis on the Texans: @sackedbybmac
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