Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns: Complete Week 11 Preview for Houston
If you're still holding on with white knuckles that the Houston Texans' playoff chances are still alive despite owning a 4-5 record and trailing six other teams for the sixth and final playoff spot, then they have to win this weekend to keep that faint heartbeat from flat lining.
For what it's worth, TeamRankings.com—a great source for deep stats—has the Texans' odds of making the playoffs at 18.3 percent; just the 11th-best odds in the AFC.
This game against Cleveland feels like it should be close and could go either way, but more important to me and for the future of the franchise than a win or a loss is the performance of their new quarterback.
As I've discussed all season, making the playoffs was never a realistic expectation for this team, which is part of why the long overdue debut of Ryan Mallett is so necessary despite the real possibility of him being worse than the quarterback who started the previous nine games.
This is worth repeating: The goals for the 2014 Houston Texans should have never been to make the playoffs—we can hope and wish still—but to instead identify their building blocks and cornerstones of the future, so they can make adjustments to the roster as needed during the offseason.
You can't build up for the future if you don't know where you're starting from, and that all begins with the most important position on the roster.
My guess is the Texans will take a quarterback early in the draft next year regardless of how Mallett performs, but shouldn't they give him a look in case he blows them away or at least looks good enough to be the transitional quarterback to hold the job until the rookie is ready?
Due to his age and track record of below-average play, Ryan Fitzpatrick has no future value with this team. Might sound harsh, but that's the cold reality of a tough business.
That being the case, they owe it to themselves and to their fans to try out the quarterbacks who have a chance—however small it might be—of becoming their future at the position. I hope the Texans give Mallett at least five games, and if he stinks, then let rookie fourth-round pick Tom Savage start the final two games.
Starting Fitzpatrick even just once more on a team that isn't going to the playoffs and that likely won't bring him back for next season is a waste of time and will delay its development and growth.
As I'll mention in further detail on a later page, the Browns have a good defense, and the weather conditions away from the too-often-closed roof of NRG Stadium will be a challenge, but Mallett has been in some version of this system for three-and-a-half years and has elite physical tools, so it's time for him to get his chance.
Writing off a season as a rebuilding year is depressing to many fans, and I get that feeling, but delaying that process and trying to cover a bullet wound with a Band-Aid is only going to make things worse. At some point, you have to accept reality and be willing to take the steps necessary to dig out of that hole.
Finding out what you have available on the roster at quarterback is the biggest step they can take and should be viewed as more important than a single win or loss in a regular-season game that no one will remember five years from now.
What do you guys remember about Week 11 of the 2009 season?
The overwhelming majority of even the diehard fans won't remember the opponent or the result right away if at all; but they will remember that the Texans didn't make a playoff run and didn't have a quarterback they trusted to put the team on his back.
They lost to the Tennessee Titans, 20-17, in case you're curious.
I would love for the Texans to defeat the Browns as would every fan, but even if they do, what would their best-case scenario for the season be at that point? Maybe 8-8 or best case 9-7 and probably getting crushed by the Indianapolis Colts in the first round?
Sure, those results would be more fun in the short term over going 6-10 or worse, but will you be wearing the t-shirt to commemorate the 9-7 first-round exit team from 2014 five years from now?
The ultimate goal should be to win it all, and you're only going to get there by solving your quarterback issue, which won't be done with Fitzpatrick under center.
Some fans will never get taking the big-picture approach over short-term results or that a late loss during a bad season could be a good thing because of its impact on draft positioning, but that's OK. Let them react however they want; we can all celebrate together whenever the Texans do find a franchise quarterback.
Houston Texans' Week 9 Recap
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The Houston Texans finally ended their season-long streak of being predictable on which teams they would defeat and which teams they would come up short against.
Unfortunately for the Texans, they snapped that streak of defeating teams with bad quarterbacks and losing to teams with good quarterbacks in a negative fashion by losing to a team that was led by Mark Sanchez for the majority of the game.
Maybe Sanchez will be a better quarterback in the Philadelphia Eagles' system under Chip Kelly than he was for the New York Jets, but it'd still be hard to argue that he's a "good quarterback."
Against the Eagles, Ryan Fitzpatrick had arguably his worst start of the season in what could end up being his last start as a member of the Texans. The veteran quarterback completed under 50 percent of his passes and threw his eighth interception in nine starts.
Fitzpatrick has many qualities like toughness and a willingness to gamble that make him easy to root for, but his poor decision-making and weak arm have held the Texans offense back this season. Not sure Ryan Mallett will make a difference in terms of wins and losses, but he definitely has a stronger arm.
Another weakness of the Texans showed up in the game against the Eagles—that weakness being a tendency to give up explosive plays in the passing game. Jeremy Maclin caught a pair of 50-plus-yard passes in the game that totaled up to 111 yards on just those two receptions.
Even with having played one less game than several other NFL teams who haven't had their bye week, the Texans rank 32nd—or worst in the league—in passes of 40 yards or more allowed.
The Texans defense also relapsed into some poor play in terms of stopping the run like they did early in the season before the team signed nose tackle Ryan Pickett. Even with Pickett on the field, the Texans gave up 190 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry to Philadelphia.
The 190 rushing yards allowed to Philadelphia was the second most they've allowed all season. They gave up 193 rushing yards against the New York Giants in Week 3.
The rushing yards allowed to the Eagles in Week 9 were almost as much as they allowed in their three previous games combined. Over the Texans' previous three games combined before Philadelphia, they allowed a total of 205 rushing yards to the Titans, Steelers and Colts.
It's one thing to give up yards to LeSean McCoy or Darren Sproles, but even the Eagles' third-string running back, Chris Polk, had 50 yards on 6.2 yards per carry—inexcusable performance.
Their chances of winning were also hurt by Arian Foster having his second-worst game of the season with just 56 yards on 3.7 per rush before leaving the game with an injury.
It's hard to win many games when you don't run the ball well, complete less than half of your passes and allow the other team to run the ball efficiently and get multiple big plays of over 50 yards through the air; that's not exactly a recipe for success.
News and Notes
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Several Houston Texans Might Be Headed to Hawaii
The obvious choices to make the Pro Bowl roster from the Texans are, of course, Arian Foster and J.J. Watt:
"Arian Foster ninth in Pro Bowl voting while J.J. Watt leads defensive players: The NFL Pro Bowl voting... http://t.co/elMIy9ExRM #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) November 12, 2014"
Assuming both Watt and Foster stay healthy, both seem like locks for the Pro Bowl. Watt is the run-away leader for Defensive Player of the Year at this point, while among AFC running backs, Foster ranks first in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns and is tied for second in yards per attempt.
Other Texans players who have an outside chance of stealing a Pro Bowl roster spot in my opinion include punter Shane Lechler, kicker Randy Bullock, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus; Mercilus would need to rack up a sack per game over the team's final seven to pass double digits.
Undrafted Rookie Linebacker Max Bullough Promoted
The move of promoting Bullough from the practice squad to the 53-man roster took the place of veteran linebacker Zac Diles who the Texans released earlier in the week.
""He's earned his way to this point and he needs to keep earning his way." O'Brien says of Max Bullough. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) November 13, 2014"
Bullough was a player I liked a lot coming out of college and someone I thought played well during camp and the preseason, but he got buried on a deep depth chart to start out the season. He's not a very athletic linebacker, so don't expect to see him on the field on third down, but he can make an impact against the run.
This point of the season is the perfect time to start playing a few younger guys to get them reps and get a look at their possible long-term potential.
Jadeveon Clowney Expected to Play His Third Game of the Season
The often injured rookie has fallen well short of most fans' expectations this season, but he still has time to salvage his first year in the league. Getting a couple sacks to help lead the Texans over the 6-3 Cleveland Browns in what would be an upset win on the road would be a great start.
"#Texans' O'Brien expects Jadeveon Clowney to play Sunday vs. #Browns. #NFL
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) November 12, 2014"
How much time Clowney has missed has been disappointing, but the team was going to be average with or without him, so I'd rather him rest and get close to 100 percent in order to maximize his talent in the future over risking his career to rush back for a relatively meaningless regular-season game.
My hope for the rest of the regular season for Clowney will just be to see him show flashes of that amazing potential to give us a taste of what he's capable of going into next year and also to obviously stay healthy. After that, the numbers like sacks, forced fumbles or tackles for loss are just icing on the cake.
Injury Report
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| Kareem Jackson | Knee | Out |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Questionable |
| Darryl Morris | Ankle | Questionable |
| Brian Cushing | Knee | Questionable |
| Jadeveon Clowney | Knee/Illness | Questionable |
| John Simon | Ankle | Probable |
| Jeff Tarpinian | Knee | Probable |
| Brooks Reed | Groin | Probable |
| Johnathan Joseph | Concussion/Knee | Probable |
| Justin Tuggle | Shoulder | Probable |
Source: Pro Football Reference as of the night of Thursday, November 13.
"#Texans' injury report pic.twitter.com/v7JvReF2Un
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) November 13, 2014"
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Which Texans Receiver Will the Browns Put Joe Haden On?
I'll stop short of using some made-up phrase like "Haden Island," but he is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The former first-round pick is near the top of the league in pass breakups again this season and was ranked as the fourth-best corner in the league by Bucky Brooks of NFL.com before the season started.
The Texans have two very good receivers when they're playing at their best, but neither Andre Johnson—at this point of his career—or DeAndre Hopkins is as talented as A.J. Green, who Haden shut down last week.
If Haden is able to close down one side of the field like he has done against other talented receivers in the past, he'll cause major problems for a Texans offense being led by a quarterback making his first start. In addition to Haden, on the other side of the field will be a talented rookie corner named Justin Gilbert.
It might be tough to move the ball through the air for the Texans.
Texans Pass-Rushers Against Browns Tackle Joe Thomas
Since Thomas plays as their left tackle, J.J. Watt—who plays primarily as an interior lineman—won't likely be matched up against him very often. They'll move Watt around as they do every week, of course, but exploiting an easier matchup with Watt would be a wise move to maximize his impact.
Unfortunately for the Texans, Watt might be the only player on their roster or even in the entire league capable of winning more battles than he loses against the brick wall known as Joe Thomas.
Pro Football Focus' Khaled Elsayed wrote another glowing recap of his game last week against the Cincinnati Bengals and of his season overall:
"Breakdown: Across any position, Joe Thomas is perhaps the standout player of the past 7 years. Unrivalled excellence matched with remarkable consistency, this game showcased the type of player he is. Flawless throughout, his impact in the running game setting up cutback lanes and widening what happens playside is rarely talked about, but so much fun to watch.
Signature Stat: Didn’t allow a single pressure all game. The fourth time this year.
"
If Watt isn't matched up with Thomas, then who stands a chance of applying pressure from that side? Maybe Whitney Mercilus, who has four sacks over his last three games, but even that would be a long shot.
X-Factor of the Week: Ryan Mallett
Was this selection too obvious? Maybe so, but was there really any other choice here?
If Mallett is able to beat the blitzes he's likely to see often throughout the game and throw the ball with accuracy into what will likely be tight windows better than he did in college, then the Texans offense should have some success in Cleveland.
If neither of those boxes gets checked off on Sunday, then the game could get ugly very quickly.
The biggest potential boost for the offense with Mallett under center as compared to Ryan Fitzpatrick—assuming that Mallett plays well—is that his arm strength will open up parts of the field that weren't even glanced at before.
With Fitzpatrick, nearly every pass was underneath within about 10 to 15 yards and usually outside the hash marks. Fitzpatrick doesn't have the arm strength to thread the needle into tight windows and traffic over the middle or to stretch the defense with the deep ball; Mallett does.
They've made plays for over 20 yards, sure, but those were mostly due to receivers being either wide open or picking up chunks of yards after the catch, not from Fitzpatrick completing tough throws deep down the field.
Playing with Fitzpatrick at quarterback was like playing four-on-five in basketball because one of your teammates is tying his shoe down at the other end or trying to find open passing lanes near the goal line when the defense has a much shorter field to cover with the boundaries acting as extra defenders.
Mallett's arm strength, which isn't just better than Fitzpatrick's but legitimately toward the top of the league, will open up parts of the playbook that have probably been gathering cobwebs this season and force opposing defenses to cover parts of the field that they could previously ignore to cheat toward the shorter passes.
It might not happen this week with it being Mallett's first start and because of the caliber of cornerbacks they'll be facing, but the skills and attributes of Johnson and Hopkins should be on display more often if they're able to work down the field and catch the ball in stride instead of being used as possession receivers.
Will Mallett be a success? The odds are against him, but who knows? Either way, finally getting to see a Texans offense led by a quarterback with a cannon attached to his shoulder will be exciting.
Prediction
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Being aggressive on defense is always a good idea in my opinion, but even more so when facing a quarterback who is making his first NFL start; until Ryan Mallett proves he can beat the blitz, I would pressure him constantly if calling plays for the Cleveland Browns this week.
The Houston Texans offensive line has struggled in protection, and the book on Mallett is that he's a statue in the pocket, so why wouldn't the Browns blitz him early and often?
Currently, the Texans rank 16th in sacks allowed, but that rank—average as it may be—might be deceiving since Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to avoid several sacks per game with his legs and mobility, which is something Mallett won't be able to do.
The Browns also have two very solid corners who should be able to press the Texans receivers, throw off the timing of their routes and force Mallett to hold on to the ball for a little longer, a big problem if the opponent is also bringing pressure.
Cleveland held star Cincinnati Bengals' receiver A.J. Green to three receptions for 23 yards last week.
On the other side of the ball the Browns rank sixth in the league in points allowed per game over the full season at 19.1, but since their Week 4 bye, their average point total allowed has shrunk to 15.8 per game, which would be tied for first in the league over the full season with the Detroit Lions.
In Week 6, the Browns held the Pittsburgh Steelers to 10 points in a big home win; the Steelers scored 30, 51 and 43 points, respectively, in their next three games. The Browns defense is legit.
Bottom line: I don't like the Texans' chances of coming away with a victory.
They certainly have a shot because the Browns offense isn't very good, but the Browns defense has been playing pretty well and should cause issues for a quarterback making his first NFL start behind an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection.
Prediction: Browns 17, Texans 13
Follow me on Twitter for more Texans opinion and live analysis during games: @sackedbybmac
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