How Realistic Are the Miami Dolphins Playoff Hopes?
This isn't the first time in recent memory that the Miami Dolphins are playing meaningful games in November and December. In fact, they were in this spot just 12 months ago, with a favorable schedule and the inside track to their first postseason berth since 2008.
The question is, can they win enough games down the stretch to earn the right to play more games in January?
The Dolphins (5-4) are tied with the Buffalo Bills (5-4) for second place in the AFC East, and are part of a mix of 10 teams with similar records who are fighting for playoff spots.
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| New England Patriots | 7-2 | 2-1 |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 3-0 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6-3 | 3-0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6-4 | 2-3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-3-1 | 2-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5-4 | 2-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| San Diego Chargers | 5-4 | 1-2 |
Right now, they do not look like they are in the mix for the playoffs when taking a big-picture look at the AFC, but a win against the Bills could vault them right into that mix with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.
The Dolphins hold a 1-1 record against the AFC East, thanks to an early season win over the New England Patriots and a disappointing loss to the Bills. If the Dolphins are able to exact revenge, that would move them to 2-1 in the division and 6-4 overall.
That would be the Dolphins' best record through 10 games since—you guessed it—2008.
Let's take the likely division winners out of the equation. That removes the Patriots, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts from the list, and leaves eight teams in contention for the final three spots: the Steelers, Chiefs, Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Bills, Dolphins and Chargers.
The Steelers looked ready to roll to the playoffs before laying an egg against the Jets in a 20-13 Week 10 loss. None of their games can be considered layups anymore, but their remaining opponents have a combined record of 25-27-2, so a double-digit win total still appears within reach.
The Chiefs have a murderous schedule down the stretch. They host the Seattle Seahawks, then travel to face the Oakland Raiders, home against the Denver Broncos, on the road again for the Arizona Cardinals, a second game against the Raiders, a road trip to face the Steelers, then home against the Chargers to close out the season. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-32, but 18 of those 32 losses are thanks to two games against the winless Raiders.
At 6-3, the Chiefs will have a difficult time hitting a double-digit win total.
The Ravens' remaining opponents have a combined record of 27-37, and as such, they could also hit 10 wins. This is a situation that the Dolphins can actually control a little bit, as the two teams will meet in Miami in Week 14. The Ravens currently sit at 6-4, but with only one easy game (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) and five more difficult games left on the schedule, the Ravens may find it hard to hit 10 wins.
The Browns remaining opponents are a combined 32-31-2. They will be heavily tested to close out the season, as they face the Bills, Colts, Bengals and Ravens down the stretch. They have far exceeded expectations, but it looks like their ceiling is 10 wins.
The Bengals face opponents with a combined record of 34-31, but they may have the hardest road of any team in this mix because they have five road games in their final seven contests. They also have two games against the Steelers and another against the Broncos. At 5-3-1, the Bengals may already be out of the race—unless they regain the consistency that has eluded them since being smoked by the Patriots in Week 4.
The Chargers have two straight layups in the Raiders and St. Louis Rams, but assuming they win both of those games, they would still need to win three of their final five games against stiff competition (Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, Chiefs). Their remaining opponents combine for a 34-31 record.
The Bills opponents have a combined record of 32-32, but that is also not without some big challenges, including road games against the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins, and a home game against the Green Bay Packers. Those four games alone may make the Bills' final stretch the most difficult of the bunch.
The Dolphins can take a big step toward putting the Bills out of the running with a win on Thursday.
Which brings us to the Dolphins, whose remaining opponents have a 31-33 combined record at the moment. They get some help from two very winnable games against the Jets and a third winnable contest against the Minnesota Vikings. Wins in those three games would bring the Dolphins to eight wins on the season.
There are still four difficult contests left ahead for the Dolphins, though, with the Bills, Ravens, Patriots and Broncos still on the schedule. If the Dolphins can win the games they should win, and then split their more difficult games, that would get them to 10 wins and in the mix for that playoff spot.
It won't be just enough to pick up the "gimme" wins; the Dolphins will have to beat some playoff contenders in order to make it to the playoffs themselves.
Last year, the threshold was nine wins to a playoff spot. This year, it looks like the final wild card team will need to earn at least 10 wins to make the postseason.
The Dolphins have a very real chance to make it to the playoffs for the first time in more than half a decade, but sitting at 5-4 and needing to finish 5-2 down the stretch, they will need to play their best football of the season to get there.
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