Why Patrick Mahomes Is No Longer the Best QB in the NFL

At his peak, Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback of all time. He failed to reach that standard last season, though. Furthermore, questions remains whether he'll return to form during the 2026 campaign.

If Mahomes chose to walk away from the game today, he'd stroll into the Pro Football Hall of Fame five years from now as a unanimously selected inductee. His legacy is already well-established as someone who redefined the game's most important position.

From an evaluation standpoint, the 30-year-old gunslinger expanded the expectations of quarterback play. In today's game, the position can't simply execute the offense at a high level. A quarterback must be able to win when working outside of structure. Mahomes' creativity upon extending a play is uncanny. The elasticity and arm-strength to throw from numerous angles and platforms are no longer a luxury at the position; they're now considered a feature of today's quarterback play. A quarterback's worth is based on what he can do beyond what's expected of him. Mahomes' presence is ubiquitous with this evolution.

Statistically, the two-time NFL MVP threw for 4,000 or more yards—including a pair of 5,000-yard campaigns—in each of his first six seasons as the Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback. Through nine seasons, Mahomes is the NFL's all-time leader with an average 285.2 passing yards per game. His 5,614 passing yards during the 2022 campaign (including postseason) is highest single-season output ever. He's led the league in passing touchdowns twice. Yet a steady decline has been seen over the last three seasons, with fewer passing yards and touchdowns with each subsequent campaign.

"For the majority of Mahomes' career, he's been the NFL's best and most feared quarterback," B/R scout Dame Parson said. "Rightfully so, Mahomes took the league by storm. Once the AFC felt free from the grips of Tom Brady's excellence and success, the Chiefs' franchise QB took the reins. 

"Mahomes is the engine that drives the Chiefs. No matter who the team lost offensively over his career, he kept his squad atop the standings as a Super Bowl contender. However, last season was a down year for Mahomes. He finished 2025 with a career-low in passing touchdowns and completion percentage (not including his rookie campaign) before suffering a season-ending injury."

From an individual standpoint, the six-time Pro Bowler has regressed.

Mahomes' greatest leap in performance occurred in 2022 after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. Prior to the move, Hill served as an insurance policy. The quarterback could simply chuck the ball downfield and let his former All-Pro target make a play whenever necessary. Without Hill's field-stretching ability, Mahomes became significantly better at working through his progressions and taking what the defense allowed. A higher level of offensive efficiency propelled the Chiefs toward back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

During the last two campaigns, a confluence of factors have played into Mahomes' downturn. Poor offensive line construction created more pressure and reliance on the quarterback to shoulder the responsibilities. Last season, Mahomes set a career-high with 422 rushing yards. He became more prone to play hero-ball, with a scramble rate of 8.9 percent last season, which doubled his first season as a starter, according to Pro Football Focus. The addition of Kenneth Walker III in free agency should help offset some of these concerns.

Also, defenses sacked the quarterback more than 30 times in each of the last two campaigns after not doing so during any of the previous years. The Chiefs will ask a lot of a new full-time starter at right tackle and young left side to show noticeable improvement this fall.

A poor running game, shaky offensive line, inconsistent performance from the wide receivers, an aging Travis Kelce and concurrent regression from the head coach/play-caller Andy Reid should all be discussed regarding the Chiefs' fall from the franchise's previous standard.

"A couple of years ago for sure, he was top five to me," an NFC defensive coordinator told The Athletic's Ted Nguyen when asked about Reid's standing as one of the league's top play-callers. "In the past, like, year or two, I think it's cooled down significantly, to be honest with you. … I just think that it got a little predictable because they had that carousel of personnel there too. He's definitely on the fringe of it, out of respect, but I don't necessarily have the same 'I'm staying up all night' feel with him."

Obviously, a quarterback's surroundings are vitally important to the position's success or failures. To be fair, Mahomes set what was an impossible standard throughout most of his 20s. He was like Tiger Woods winning four straight majors. A drop-off of some sort should have been expected.

"He was less than stellar in areas we did not expect to see last season," Parson said. "Against the blitz, Mahomes threw for seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He had an EPA of negative-10.7, a passer rating of 81.2 and his completion percentage over expectation was negative-4.4 percent. His numbers against pressure weren't much better. He threw five touchdowns to four interceptions with a passer rating of 59.3, completing 37.8 percent of his passes and an EPA of negative-37.9. Mahomes was previously viewed as Teflon when facing pressure and/or the blitz. Last season told a different story."

In retrospect, Mahomes should have been the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. He was never seriously considered for the spot at the time, because his game was akin to a wild stallion. His enormous arm talent and penchant to create big plays have always been obvious, yet he was viewed as a developmental prospect. This context is important, because a less-than-ideal setting has a tendency to prompt old bad habits.

"Mahomes' footwork was less efficient than usual, leading to 20 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. His ability to connect on the deep ball was inconsistent, too. He was not on the same wavelength as speedster Xavier Worthy, leaving passes off the mark, even when his young wideout had an advantage. On passes traveling 20-plus yards in the air, Mahomes had a passer rating of 64.4, with one touchdown compared to three interceptions and a 33 completion percentage."

From that point, the first major injury of Mahomes' career must be factored into the equation. During Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers, the nine-year veteran suffered a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee. Early reports from training camp are quite promising. However, the Chiefs will be wise to slow-play this process and ensure Mahomes is 100 percent healthy before he returns to the field on a full-time basis against legitimate competition. No timetable for the quarterback's return has been set at this point in time.

The uncertainty of the situation, plus the necessary time for the athlete to regain form, adds to the fact others have surpassed Mahomes. As part of B/R's NFL1000, the Chiefs' starter comes in as the game's fourth-best quarterback entering the 2026 campaign behind the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford, Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen and Los Angles Chargers' Justin Herbert.

"Everyone knows Mahomes remains one of the league's best quarterbacks," Parson said, "but he was not playing up to his previously established level last season and the knee injury certainly plays a factor. The competition at the top of the quarterback food chain has leveled up with the reigning MVP (Stafford), Allen, Hebert, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Drake Maye all grouped in a similar range.

"Mahomes is wired differently, and expectations are that he will return to the field this fall with vengeance. As of now, a few QBs stand eye to eye, and Stafford sits at the top after coming off his best season as a professional."

For Stafford, it's about control. The 38-year-old still has fantastic natural arm talent, but he's now reached a Brady/Peyton Manning-like understanding of everything going on around him, with the ability to manipulate defenses like he's reached Jedi status. In Allen's case, the horsepower found in his arm, ability to run and large frame allow him to carry an entire organization. Regarding Herbert, he has all the necessary tools as long as the surrounding roster doesn't fail him, as it did last season.

The idea of Mahomes being the league's fourth-best quarterback may be viewed as a disappointment even though he remains one of the league's top performers. A brand new day exists in the NFL, but it remains a quarterback-driven league. It just so happens the quarterback at the wheel isn't the same today as it was just a couple of seasons ago.