MLB Eyes Its Trade Deadline, But Does It See Much Movement?

It goes by a different catchword/phrase every iteration. This time around, we're apparently going with "Buzz"—as in the Buzz mentioned very little about Ryan Garko becoming a San Francisco Giant before it happened Monday evening.

Buzz, got that?

The average fan might call it trade rumor-mongering, but that's not very charitable.  Whatever name you affix to this time of year, die-hard fans of Major League Baseball eagerly anticipate the run-up to the July 31 trade deadline every season.

If your team's out of the running, the bids for postseason land-grabs by the contenders always make for an entertaining shift in landscape. If your organization is one of the lucky clubs with a vibrant pulse, the deadline is a double-edged sword.

Future fortunes can be squandered on ill-fated over-extensions for that brass ring.

Or you might just find the missing link that delivers the Commissioner's Trophy to your door.

The picture is particularly muddled in 2009 because every division in the Show is still up for grabs, with the exception of the National League West, which belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers barring an epic collapse beyond the veil of reason.

Even the Bums have a couple holes that could use a-fixin', and two NL West clubs (the Giants and Colorado Rockies) have spent the last week fumbling the Wild Card lead between each other.

The entire American League, from Coast to Coast, is in constant upheaval.

With so many buyers, there are two possibilities: The seller's market becomes paralyzed by the plethora of trade partners, and consequent high prices produce much ado about nothing; or the sellers have every morsel of productive flesh picked clean by the contentious vultures as each one repositions itself in relation to another's move.

Given the history of the Majors, it's probably gonna be the former.

But it's still fun to take a look at what each franchise "needs" to hit the playoff jackpot.

AL EAST

Boston Red Sox

This is one of the teams necessitating the quotation marks around "need." The Sawks don't need anything via the trade market to make the postseason. Hey, if you can't make the second season with the current roster, well, I don't know what to tell you other than it's not your year.

Sure, a guy like Adrian Gonzalez would make sense.

But there's little reason to go leveraging an entire farm system when your lineup already features Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, a resurgent David Ortiz, Adam LaRoche, Mike Lowell, and J.D. Drew.

On the other hand, I will not lie—Gonzalez is an incredible baseball player, and he fills an obvious need for Boston (though no longer as pressing in the wake of the LaRoche acquisition).

If Daniel Bard and Michael Bowden are the real deal and ready for 2010, then Clay Buchholz really is expendable, and the boys from Beantown have a nice chip with which to play.

Nevertheless, I say the smart move is to spend a couple more secondary prospects to make understated upgrades like adding LaRoche—moves that won't raise too many pulses but can really improve a squad already brimming with talent.

New York Yankees

They are another squad not requiring anything extra to make the postseason.

In a shocking development, that's exactly how the Bronx Bombers are behaving. They haven't popped up in many of the substantive whispers, and rightly so.

The rotation is rounding into shape, the offense is full of names you can't bench anyway, and the bridge to Mariano Rivera seems to be holding quite fine these days.

Much like Adrian Gonzalez would help most squads, Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee would be an obvious asset in Pinstripes. But (as in Boston with its offense) if the Yanks can't win with the current rotation, it simply ain't their year.

Can't force the Baseball Gods—no reason to leverage future success trying to do so.

Tampa Bay Rays

The third contender introduces another trend that might explain an anticlimactic silence at the deadline. The Rays could use the services of a dominant ace like Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee.

Scott Kazmir and James Shields are very good hurlers, but neither has the type of presence the other two genuine aces carry with them to the bump. Sliding a guy like Doc or the defending AL Cy Young into the No. 1 slot nudges the rest of the rotation into more comfortable spots.

However, the team in actual need has little hope of hitting the asking prices on a Halladay or Lee. Furthermore, Tampa plays an additional small-market premium on each of the blue-chippers it moves because it can't pay to replace them like a New York or Boston or St. Louis.

The Rays may dabble a little on the edges to grab some extra bench support or arms for the bullpen, but their budget limits them.

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox

Here's an interesting situation.

The Pale Hose are in a cozy spot in their division despite getting pounded by the first-place Detroit Tigers over the weekend. They have a sturdy, if unglamorous starting rotation, as well as an imperfect but historically reliable 'pen.

Youngsters like Gordon Beckham, Josh Fields, and Chris Getz are beginning to produce dividends in the Bigs alongside established thumpers like Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Carlos Quentin (back from injury), Paul Konerko, and a stirring Alexei Ramirez. So the offense looks shiny.

Having said all that, a super-ace like Halladay or Lee—highly unlikely since he currently toils for a division rival—would force the White Sox into the most sincere World Series discussions.

The problem, as everywhere else, is the asking price.

Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen via the nature of a short five- or seven-game series—and Chicago has to be confident in its chances for the Central crown.

It doesn't face the desperation that usually engenders a sizable gamble like wrapping up a system's worth of green weapons and sending them to an opponent for the Betty of the ball.

Detroit Tigers

The division leader, like everyone else, could use some more pitching. In this market, that seems to mean Halladay or Lee. But Bronson Arroyo's name has also bobbed to the surface, as has Justin Duchscherer's.

In Arizona, you've got Jon Garland and Doug Davis. I'm sure there are other names of equal sex appeal, which is to say, very little.

Yet another dirty little secret of the trade deadline—the contenders pay for their panic. It's not always a lot, but it really is a seller's market. Usually, the team that's been eliminated faces no real urgency (the politically correct term for panic), and the calm gives them an advantage.

If I'm Detroit, I look at those names and—with the exception of the two dead horses and Duke—nobody's going to put me over the top against either shade of sock or the Yanks, nor any of the other hurdles to a Winter Classic victory.

Since I don't think they have the requisite talent to land one of the bigger fish, the Tigers might make a massage to their bullpen and acquire a little extra insurance for Fernando Rodney.

But I wouldn't count on Michael Wuertz from Oakland or anyone else of similar repute. Again, the marginal return on a high-caliber reliever isn't there.

On offense, they apparently are shopping for a buffer to Carlos Guillen, which means someone like Ty Wigginton or Aubrey Huff in Baltimore. Woohoo.

Minnesota Twins

Ah, the Twinkies. The perennial non-buying buyers.

Next.

AL WEST

Anaheim Angels (I don't care what you say, they're not in Los Angeles)

Welcome to one of two teams that seems sincerely willing to pay the cost of the Roy Halladay sweepstakes. For some reason, it seems the Halos' reluctance to part with Joe Saunders created a snag in an otherwise go-deal for Doc.

Which looks really, really odd from the outside.

They have a lot of young talent already in the Show and always seem to have a ton at all levels of their system. This includes both position players and pitchers—guys like Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, Jered Weaver, and Ervin Santana.

So burning some of the excess to bring in the caliber of starter of a guy like Halladay seems like a no-brainer if you're contemplating it at all. Certainly if the make-or-break question is to part with Saunders—who isn't chopped liver, but seems a little smoke and mirrors to me.

Seattle Mariners

You should be selling. Russell Branyan, Jarrod Washburn, whoever.

Texas Rangers

Anyone bored by the refrain "in need of pitching?"

I'm tired of saying it, but it's the truth—most teams are sufficiently confident in their ability to find internal improvement for offense and not so with pitching.

The Rangers fit part of that description. They don't seem to have the immediate answer to a shaking starting rotation inside the walls of the organization, but the offense simply needs no improvement.

With Josh Hamilton back and Nelson Cruz awakening from an anxious slumber, the splinters are good.

The bullpen seems fine, too.

Unfortunately, the starting rotation has been taking on water slowly but consistently since a strong opening stanza. You hear the same names bandied about, and you hear the same problems.

Other than the insanely expensive duo of Halladay/Lee, the rest of the available arms don't represent a large enough improvement to warrant the prospect premium.

The only attractive secondary arm that seems available is Arroyo, and that's arguable. And who says the Cincinnati Reds are convinced they're sellers?

NL EAST

Atlanta Braves

As a Giants fan, I got a good look at the Bravos in their present incarnation. Whoa.

I don't imagine they feel any overwhelming deficiency at this point. The offense is absolutely scalding with Nate McLouth settled in atop the order, Chipper Jones his usual self, Yunel Escobar making leaps with each at-bat, Martin Prado inexplicably driving the ball everywhere, and others chipping in when appropriate.

The pitching is also cruising along with Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Javier Vazquez, and Derek Lowe feeling fine. Kenshin Kawakami is a bit of a disappointment, but Tim Hudson sounds like he's on his way back, and that's as good as anyone available not named...

Another reliable arm in the 'pen never hurts, but even that's no longer a huge concern with Rafael Soriano healthy and humming along.

Florida Marlins

Come on. Buyers in record only.

New York Mets

They might not know it, but they're sellers. When the Baseball Gods are smiting anyone fool enough to touch the slab in a Met uniform, surrender is your only option.

Discretion is the better part of valor.

Philadelphia Phillies

Tough to know what to make of these fellas.

It's essentially the same roster that won the World Series last year, except it swapped in Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell. In other words, it's better this year, and that's before you consider another year of development on ace pressure-cooker performer Cole Hamels.

Brad Lidge has proven to be human in 2009, but you had to expect a regression. He's still as good a bet as you'll find in the Senior Circuit's half of the postseason.

The offense needs squat. Period.

But, oh what a difference a successful conclusion to their rumored pursuit of Roy Halladay would make.

With Doc and Hamels or Hamels and Doc as your one-two, backed by an offense featuring three perennial Most Valuable Player candidates (non-Albert Pujols division), and a stranglehold on the division, the Phils would have to be a favorite to repeat as champs.

Additionally, Halladay has many good years still in his arm, and Philadelphia could afford to eat a long-term contract. The southpaw Cliff Lee also seems like a good option, but the Toronto Blue Jay righty makes a better contrast to the left-handed Hamels.

NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs

Here is the NL version of the Yankees—they don't need anything except for their roster to play near its potential, and they know it.

Even with the St. Louis Cardinals picking up piece after piece, the Cubbies have taken over the Central lead. Alfonso Soriano is warming up, Aramis Ramirez is back from injury, Derrek Lee is rocking the ball, and Rich Harden had a nice turn last time out.

The pieces are falling together at the right time. Plus, I haven't heard of any Chicago prospect it could use to lure established talent from also-rans.

Cincinnati Reds

I said before the Reds might not consider themselves sellers. That's because they're within spitting distance of the Wild Card and division leaders. Plus, they've got all that potential.

Newsflash—Cincinnati should be selling. The talent isn't coming together as people thought it might, and with St. Louis and Chicago girding up for an epic clash, the 2009 window has closed.

Houston Astros

For once, the 'Stros' lingering postseason hope doesn't seem to have deluded management. There haven't been any odd moves like last year, nor have there been any rumors of such.

Houston has done MUCH better than I and many others thought it would do. It's still a seller.

St. Louis Cardinals.

They've gotta be done, right?

The Redbirds already parted with a prized youngster (Brett Wallace) to bring Matt Holliday aboard after they grabbed Mark DeRosa as well as Julio Lugo. They are sitting pretty with the offensive talent to beat the band, as well as a rotation that holds together quite nicely so long as Chris Carpenter stays healthy.

The combination of St. Louis' flurry of activity, sound offense, sound pitching, and shell-shocked farm system should mean the Cards are battening down the hatches for the stretch.

NL WEST

Colorado Rockies

Everyone seems to love the Rox. I don't get it.

They are hot right now and have been alternating hot or nuclear since the change in management. I can't argue any of that.

But the starting pitching is held together with duct tape, and Colorado doesn't fare well against its NL West compatriots (or at least the Dodgers and Giants, who are their opposition in this particular race). The effects of the unbalanced schedule will bring Colorado back to Earth.

Then there's the matter of no-trade clauses and such.

Tough to imagine any effective starter like Halladay or Lee green-lighting a move to the rarefied air of mile-high territory. If the Rockies make a move, my guess is it won't make much of a ripple.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Here's your lone postseason ticket holder.

The Bums are in. I don't like saying it, and you might not like hearing it, but it's the truth. Their lead in the West is too big for the flawed challengers to catch them. It would take a natural disaster or biblical pestilence to keep them from MLB's second season.

While Joe Torre might feel the need for an established veteran to head the rotation, the combination of Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw should do well so long as Kershaw can handle the bright lights at his tender age. There are some residual doubts about Billingsley as well, but nothing to get too worried about.

Like everyone else on the list, either of the available aces would be a coup of epic proportions and immediately vault the Dodgers back atop the NL favorites list.

I don't see LA leveraging its prosperous talent pool to bring one in, though. They've got the offense to make a run and the pitching to handle a postseason series. Plus, they're in, and once you're in, anything can happen.

With or without a dominating, seasoned ace.

San Francisco Giants

Ah, home territory.

It's old news—the Gents personify a team in need with the resources and incentive to do something about it. San Francisco has a loaded Minor League system and sits in prime position to make a serious playoff run. Even better, the ferocious rotation would make them a perilous opponent in the short series format of playoff baseball.

Add a big bat, and you're really cooking with fire.

Yet, even here, the acquisition of Ryan Garko is probably about the biggest move you were or are gonna see.

The Orange and Black is positioning itself for a decade of postseason runs, not a single one in 2009. With Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, and others stamped for arrival in the next year or two, the franchise is rightly keeping its focus on the immediate horizon.

Hence, turning a tertiary prospect into a bigger bat than currently resides on the roster and a local boy to boot hits the perfect balance. If it works, wonderful. If not, no skin off the farm system's nose.

Hopefully, the Giants will follow that approach right through the deadline.

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