San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints will look to extend their winning streak to three games on Sunday when they host the struggling San Francisco 49ers. The Saints have continued to build momentum with consecutive wins over the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers—covering the spread easily in both games—to move atop the NFC South, while the 49ers have dropped two in a row both straight up and against the spread.

Point spread: Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.6-23.0 Saints

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco simply has too much talent not to play better than last week’s effort in a 13-10 home loss to the St. Louis Rams as a 10.5-point favorite. Whether the 49ers can find a way to put everything together on the road against an equally talented New Orleans team remains to be seen, but maybe playing up to the level of their competition will help motivate them.

San Francisco has little margin for error at this point in the season with the Arizona Cardinals running away with the division at 7-1 and the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks one game ahead in the standings.

The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games against NFC South opponents and 3-0-1 versus the line in the past four meetings with the Saints.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans is 24-5-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite and showed how good this team can be at the Superdome in a 44-23 rout of the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football as a two-point favorite. The Saints then followed that up with a solid defensive effort in a 28-10 road victory against the Carolina Panthers as three-point chalk. They will be favored by even more points in this spot, and rightfully so.

San Francisco is clearly struggling and already appears to be feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. New Orleans felt similar pressure a few weeks ago at 1-3, but going 3-1 in its last four games has provided a confidence boost.

Smart pick

It’s funny to think of these two teams having identical records because they could not be more different right now. The Saints are trending up while the 49ers are going the other direction. The rumor that San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh could be leaving San Francisco at the end of the year could very well be true, according to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer (via Josh Katzowitz of CBSSports.com). One thing is for sure, the 49ers are not right at the moment and need to come through here to prove themselves.

The problem is, New Orleans is an elite team that poses a serious challenge for San Francisco. The 49ers will not be able to keep up on the scoreboard if Saints quarterback Drew Brees piles up the points early and often. New Orleans is 6-1-1 versus the line in its last eight home games against NFC West opponents and should get another cover.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in eight of San Francisco's last 11 games.
• The total has gone over in four of New Orleans's last five games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.