Will Scott Kazmir of the Rays Return to Fantasy Relevance?

It’s long been discussed that Scott Kazmir would emerge as an ace pitcher in baseball. Ever since the Mets seemingly handed him to Tampa Bay in exchange for Victor Zambrano, he has made Mets fans cringe every time he takes the mound and dazzles.

While injuries have been an issue for him, when he is healthy he has always appeared to not only be a pitcher worth using for fantasy owners, but even a solid No. 2 option. He was routinely ranked among the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball prior to the season, but he has failed miserably to live up to that ranking.

Thus far, he’s posted a line of:

4 Wins
74.0 Innings
6.69 ERA
1.72 WHIP
58 Strikeouts (7.05 K/9)
40 Walks (4.86 BB/9)
.332 BABIP

The walks have always been an issue for him, so that number should not be all that eye-popping, though he had appeared to have gotten it a bit under control. His career BB/9 is at 4.20, but over the past three seasons he’s posted rates of:

Then again, it has obviously been trending upwards, hasn’t it?

That, combined with an inflated BABIP, has led to that extremely unpalatable WHIP. If he had enough innings to qualify, that BABIP would rank him eighth in the league. 

You could look for some improved luck, but unless he drastically cuts down on the walks, the WHIP is not going to make a vast improvement, especially when you take his strikeouts into account (remember, the fewer Ks, the more balls in play, and therefore the more damage it does to your WHIP).

The strikeouts are a startling number, significantly down from his career numbers. He sports a career K/9 of 9.50, having never posted a number below 8.42 (during his first full major league season).

The three years that followed saw him ring off marks of:

This season he’s only had one game where he struck out seven in a game (against Baltimore on May 4), and nothing more than that. Compare that to 2008, when he struck out at least seven 12 times, and 2007, when he accomplished the feat 19 times (including seven consecutive starts from July 24 through Aug. 25).

His fastball, which has always been averaging at least 91.7 mph or better, is at just 90.2 mph this season. That’s a big drop, which certainly could help explain the decrease in Ks.

Could there be an injury at play? He was pulled from a start on July 18 with a cramp in his arm, but he did take the mound for his next start (though he didn’t fare very well). 

It wouldn’t be surprising, but it is pure speculation on my part. There is no word, so you really shouldn’t be anticipating that there is a problem, though time will tell.

While he is giving up a significant number of base runners, he has had some bad luck in the strand rate department, posting a 62.7 percent rate. That’s got to improve, so while there’s a good chance for an improvement, just how big of an improvement could there be?

There are two real numbers to be concerned about here—the walks and the strikeouts. If he can get those under control, the other numbers should fall into place, but thus far he has shown no clear signs of improvement.

With that said, I would stay away from taking the gamble on him this season unless someone in your league is selling extremely low on him.

I’ve seen him dealt for Cameron Maybin, Felipe Lopez, and Martin Prado, among others. Those deals would make sense, but I wouldn’t give up much more than that.

What does everyone else think? Is Kazmir a pitcher you think will rebound in the second half, or is he someone you are avoiding at all costs?

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