Will Willingham's Two Grand Slams Hasten Trade To a Contender?

I thought it was no-brainer, really.

When it was announced last winter that the Washington Nationals had traded Emilio Bonifacio and a minor leaguer to the Florida Marlins for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham, I thought the deal had brought with it two iron clad, absolute, without-a-doubt certainties.

We're talking death-and-taxes certain.

First, Scott Olsen would be part of the rotation. Second, Willingham would be an everyday outfielder, and based on his past history, he’d probably hit .265-25-80 and give the Nationals’ outfield a veteran presence it so desperately needed.

Well, I got the Olsen-in-the-rotation part right, except for all those starts where he got pummeled like Sarah Palin on MSNBC and the elbow that required surgery.

Even when the Nationals signed free-agent Adam Dunn just a few days before spring training, I thought Willingham would remain a starter as Dunn seemed destined for first base.

After all, there was no way that Nick Johnson would come out of Viera healthy, right?

Okay, that one wasn’t quite as certain as the others.

But 99 games into an otherwise unforgettable 2009 season, I still get grumpy-some would say acerbic-about Manny Acta’s early-season personnel moves.

Josh Willingham should have an everyday player coming out of spring training.

I realize that it wasn’t Acta’s fault that the Nationals were overloaded with quality outfielders, and Acta had to find some playing time for Willingham, Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns.

Former general manager Jim Bowden realized he had too many outfielders, but he thought he had all spring to turn some of that excess into a starting pitcher or a second baseman. “Smiley-gate”, however, forced him out before he could make any moves, leaving his replacement, Mike Rizzo, to sort things out.

And for the longest time, Rizzo did nothing. Perhaps he was under orders from management to sit tight, or perhaps he needed time to turn off the “toolsy” spigot at the player trough and hook his fortunes to ability and not potential.

But for whatever reason, Josh Willingham, the guy who had a career 162-game average of .270-25-82, far better than any outfielder not named Dunn, found himself riding the pines. Used to playing every day throughout his career, his numbers suffered badly.

His batting average didn’t top .100 until late April and it took him to the middle of May to get it permanently over .206. But slowly, he began to get playing time.

But really, he got that playing time not because Acta thought he was the best choice. He got it because Lastings Milledge was demoted to Syracuse and Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns suddenly stopped hitting.

But once he began to play every day, he reminded Nationals’ fans of just why he was a fan favorite in Miami. His power stroke returned and he began to hit home runs with men on base. Unbelievably, his first 12 homers of the season were solo shots.

Heading into Monday’s game with the Brewers in Milwaukee, Willingham had erased his horrid start and now swung one of the Nationals’ most potent bats. In just 223 at-bats (161 fewer than Ryan Zimmerman), Willingham was batting .291-14-31, or .291-36-80 over a typical full major league season.

Then he steps to the plate at Miller Park on Monday night, and with just two swings, he became part of baseball history.

Willingham went 3-5, raised his average to .298 and became only the 13^th player in major league history to hit two grand slam home runs in the same game, and just the third in the National League.

Both were no-doubters, the kind where outfielders don’t move more than a foot or two, usually just to get a better view of where the ball lands.

Willingham is now on pace to hit .298-40-98. Well, that’s what he would have been on pace to hit if Manny Acta had played him during the first six weeks of the season.

Look, I get it, at least to a point. Obviously, Adam Dunn is better suited to play left and not first. And the Nationals had two kids, Milledge and Dukes, who they needed in the lineup.

But the Austin Kearns experiment?

I like Austin Kearns as a human being. He is well loved in the clubhouse to be sure. But the only reason that he played so much early in the season was to showcase him for a potential trade. He started off “okay,” but sank quickly back into the black hole from whence he came.  

He last was above .260 on May 25th.

This has been a difficult year for all of us, but it might have been a tad bit better if the Nationals had committed to play their best nine players every day, potential trades be damned.

And now Willingham goes and makes things worse by hitting those two grand slams.

It is no secret that Mike Rizzo has been entertaining offers for several of his players, Willingham included. While it’s impossible to tell how interest other teams have in the 30-year-old, his last few games have certainly intrigued opposing general managers.

What do you want to bet that interim general manager Mike Rizzo was texting the other major league GM’s before Willingham’s first slam hit the back wall at Miller Park, and how many replies do you think he received after the second?

When you’re just one-of-thirteen, you get your reps (hello younger guys: did I get that right?).

The Washington Nationals are no longer a “young” team. They start two 29-year-olds and a 30-year-old in the outfield. If kids dotted the roster, then yes, it might-might-make sense to trade Willingham for prospects, and to be sure, a trade now will bring far more than it would have just three weeks ago.

But the average age of the Nationals is now 28. The only way to “go young” would be to tear down the Nationals and start over.

Again.

Kind of like they did in 2006. And 2008.

The team just doesn’t have that kind of luxury any more. They have the third-worst attendance in the National League. They have the worst television ratings. Fans are just marking time until the Redskins begin exhibition play.

To blow up this team and start over would blow up the little remaining fan loyalty right along with it.

And trading Josh Willingham would be “Exhibit A” in any discussion that includes a Nationals’ fan saying, “I used to follow them, but ….”

Rather than trade the few near-stars the team has, how about this novel approach: Use some of the $21 million that the Nationals will save when the contracts of Austin Kearns, Nick Johnson, Ronnie Belliard and Dmitri Young come off the books this winter and sign a few quality free agents, say, oh, I don’t know, a first baseman, a closer and a starter?

The Nationals are far closer to a contender than they are to a repeat of 2009. One more slugger, one 15 game winner, a closer and a year of experience and-voila!-you have a team that is somewhere between “Not so bad at all” to “Wow, are they really in the Wild Card hunt?”

It could happen, but Josh Willingham has to be a part of it. He just has to.