SEC Football: Ranking the Job Security of SEC Head Coaches
The SEC has a firm hold on the title of best conference in college football. Anyone interested in debating that topic need only look at the College Football Playoff rankings, where the league represents nearly a quarter of the poll, including three in the top 10 and half of the presumptive semifinal pairings.
With so many great teams, though, comes a heightened level of competition that can make sustained success something that's hard to come by. As great as the SEC is, someone has to lose every time there's a conference matchup, and with each loss comes a chink in the job security armor of the losing coach.
No SEC coach is bulletproof, though it may seem that way based on their success. No firings happened this past offseason, but after the 2012 season, four schools had to replace coaches they'd sent packing. And there's plenty of speculation that at least one SEC coach will be let go when the current season is over.
Who's the safest, and who's most likely to get the boot? Check out our ranking of the SEC's coaches, based on job security.
14. Will Muschamp, Florida
1 of 14
Year at school: Fourth
Under contract through: 2017
It's far easier to rank the SEC's least-secure coach than to put in order those with the most protection, especially when Florida's Will Muschamp seems to have to address his future at the school any time a microphone or tape recorder is put in front of him.
"As a football coach, it's a bunker mentality," Muschamp told reporters (h/t Fox News) prior to arguably his biggest win at the school, a 38-20 drubbing of rival Georgia last week. "It's what you deal with when you get in this profession."
Following a 4-8 season in 2013, the school's first without a bowl since 1990 and its worst mark in 34 years, Muschamp's seat was as hot as any coach in the country heading into this fall. Having his opener against Idaho, a surefire win, get canceled because of weather was an ominous start to the season because it meant having one less game to get to the six needed to be bowl-eligible.
Needing overtime to beat Kentucky at home didn't help, then getting blown out at Alabama made things worse. But back-to-back home losses in October, first a wild one against LSU and then an absolute disaster of a game against Missouri, made Muschamp's departure seem like a foregone conclusion.
Then he beats Georgia, and does so handily, and at 4-3 with games against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and an FCS school coming up, Muschamp has the chance to get some momentum going. Whether that will enable him to remain in Gainesville beyond this season remains very murky, however.
13. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt
2 of 14
Year at school: First
Under contract through: N/A (Vanderbilt does not release contract terms)
Derek Mason wasn't the sexiest of hires when Vanderbilt plucked him away from Stanford to replace James Franklin this past winter. Then again, the school hasn't really made major splashes in the coaching department, so hiring a first-time head coach who has spent most of his career as a defensive assistant seemed about right.
Mason walked into a difficult situation, with Vandy coming off of three straight bowl seasons but with a somewhat bare cupboard. Several recruits who had committed to the school ended up following Franklin to Penn State, resulting in an SEC-worst national ranking of 47th by 247Sports.
Things haven't gotten any better, despite what looked like a pretty manageable schedule this first season thanks to one of the easiest nonconference slates imaginable. That's where the Commodores have gotten all three of their wins, but it's also where they suffered an embarrassing 37-7 home loss to Temple in Mason's debut.
At 3-6 overall and 0-5 in the SEC, this season is a lost one for Mason, but he'll get a pass. Continue at that level next season and beyond, and Vandy will be back in the coaching hunt pretty quickly.
12. Butch Jones, Tennessee
3 of 14
Year at school: Second
Under contract through: 2018
Butch Jones' brief tenure in Knoxville has been full of hope, promise...and a lot of coming up just short. He's got some slack to work with, but he'll need more than just one nice win each season to avoid having that rope turn into a noose.
Jones, who signed a six-year deal when Tennessee hired him away from Cincinnati in late 2012, is 9-12 with the Volunteers. He's won three SEC games, two of which would be considered upsets (both against South Carolina, including Saturday's comeback win in overtime in Columbia), but last season came up just short of a bowl bid when the Vols lost at home to Vanderbilt in the season finale.
This season has included a few more of those near-misses, such as the 10-9 home loss to Florida and the 35-32 defeat at Georgia. He's recruited very well to this point, landing the nation's No. 7 class in 2014, and a great number of those prospects have played this season.
Youth and inexperience have held Jones' teams back to this point, but that's an excuse that won't have a very long shelf life.
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11. Bret Bielema, Arkansas
4 of 14
Year at school: Second
Under contract through: 2018
Bret Bielema's departure from the comforts of the Big Ten to the rigors of the SEC after the 2012 season was a big surprise when it happened, but the culture change he's putting in place with Arkansas seems headed in the right direction.
And by that we mean headed toward eventually winning a conference game, since in his tenure with the Razorbacks, Bielema is 7-1 in nonconference games and 0-13 in league play.
But to base it all off of the overall result doesn't show the progress Bielema has made while installing his system and approach in Fayetteville. Last year Arkansas lost by an average of 21 points in its eight SEC games, though the final three were by margins of 10, seven (in overtime) and four. This season the Hogs have lost by an average of 10.4 points in their five league contests, and they've had second-half leads in three of those.
"It's so painful for Arkansas fans," tweeted Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee during the final moments of Arkansas' 17-10 loss at No. 1 Mississippi State last week, a game it led 10-0 and twice had a chance to tie in the fourth quarter.
Painful, yes. Without hope? Not yet.
10. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss
5 of 14
Year at school: Third
Under contract through: 2017
Hugh Freeze won 15 games in his first two seasons with Ole Miss, ending each with a bowl victory, and had the Rebels off to their best start since 1962 by going 7-0 before losing the last two games in increasingly painful fashion.
The Rebels seem destined to increase their win total for the fourth straight year, up from 2-10 the season before Freeze came to Oxford to nine or more in 2014. But Ole Miss has been down this road before, so even with Freeze having had this team ranked as high as third in the nation, nobody associated with the program is kicking back in their seat and fully relaxed.
Houston Nutt was 9-4 in each of his first two seasons at Ole Miss, in 2008 and 2009, and less than two years later, Nutt was resigning amid a two-win campaign. David Cutcliffe won at least seven games in each of his first six seasons, including 10 in 2003, but a 4-7 record in 2004 spelled his demise.
Despite Ole Miss' lofty record this season, Hugh Freeze's job is no safer than anyone else's in the country, let alone the SEC.
9. Mark Richt, Georgia
6 of 14
Year at school: 14th
Under contract through: 2017
The longest-tenured coach in the SEC—Gary Pinkel has been at Missouri just as long, but the Tigers didn't join the league until 2012—most recently had his contract extended in February 2013, also getting a raise to $3.2 million following a 12-2 season. Since then, the Bulldogs have gone 14-7.
Though Richt gets a lot of credit for the way he quickly handles player discipline and NCAA-related issues, not contending for a national title on an annual basis doesn't sit well with the fanbase. Losing by 18 points to Florida this past weekend didn't gain him any extra supporters, either.
Richt has won or shared the East Division title six times, but hasn't won the SEC since 2005. The Bulldogs looked like a dark-horse candidate for a spot in the playoffs until Saturday's loss to the Gators, and now they need help from others to get a spot in the conference title game.
Richt isn't in any danger of getting fired after this season, but another subpar season in 2015 could make for a different atmosphere in Athens.
8. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
7 of 14Year at school: 10th
Under contract through: 2018
The oldest coach in the SEC at 69, Steve Spurrier is in the midst of maybe the toughest season of his long head coaching career. South Carolina began 2014 ranked ninth in the Associated Press Top 25—thanks in part to three straight 11-win seasons—but now Spurrier faces the very real possibility of ending up with his first losing record since 1987, his first season at Duke.
Is Spurrier's job with the Gamecocks at risk? No, not for one bad season. But his interest in sticking around might be waning, and as a result, the school would be wise to get a succession plan in place sooner rather than later.
Spurrier reiterated this week that "the plan" is for him to return in 2015, according to Josh Kendall of The State. That statement comes only a few days after South Carolina blew a lead late and lost in overtime at home to Tennessee, dropping to 4-5 overall and 2-5 in the SEC, a game that was followed by Spurrier spending less than a minute at his postgame press conference (see above) and leaving without taking any questions.
"It might be time for Steve Spurrier to go," wrote Bleacher Report's Greg Couch. "And if you're fluent in reading body language, you could see that he's thinking the same thing."
South Carolina isn't going to fire Spurrier, that seems a given. But that doesn't mean his job is safe, because he could pull the plug at any moment.
7. Mark Stoops, Kentucky
8 of 14
Year at school: Second
Under contract through: 2019
Despite a 7-14 record that includes only two SEC wins, Mark Stoops has already received two contract extensions at Kentucky. The most recent, awarded in late October, has him locked up for five more years beyond this one.
The Wildcats are 5-4 this season, their most wins since 2011 and one short of being eligible for their first bowl since 2010. Yet Stoops' extension seems less about current on-field success than about what he's building toward in the future, both in terms of recruits and facility upgrades, according to Mark Story of the Lexington Herald-Leader.
"Stoops was able to tap some of the big-money donors who have long supported Kentucky men's basketball to raise the funds that will enable UK to soon break ground on a posh, $45 million football training facility," Story wrote.
Kentucky's two recruiting classes under Stoops have ranked 34th and 22nd, according to 247Sports, and the 16 commitments he's landed to this point for 2015 are good enough to be ranked 25th nationally.
Eventually—probably by next year, 2016 at the latest—more wins will have to accompany what Stoops is accomplishing off the field. With the SEC East by far the weaker side at this point, the opportunity to move up is there.
6. Gary Pinkel, Missouri
9 of 14
Year at school: 14th
Under contract through: 2020
If we were ranking the SEC's coaches about 15 months ago, Gary Pinkel would be far lower on the list. His rough debut to the conference in 2013 made his future look shaky, but then he went out and led the Tigers to the East Division title and a 12-win season. The school rewarded him for that, extending his contract in March to last until he's 68.
Pinkel has gone through ups and downs while with the Tigers, following up his first bowl team in 2003 with a losing record. He then hovered around the seven- or eight-win plateau for a few years before breaking through in 2007 with a Big 12 North title and 12 wins. Two of his last three seasons in the Big 12 ended with eight wins, and then he bottomed out at 5-7 when Mizzou moved to the SEC in 2012.
Back in the lead in the SEC East—despite being shut out at home by Georgia—and with a dubious home loss to Indiana on the docket this season, Pinkel appears well entrenched in Columbia. How long that lasts will depend on how long he can keep the Tigers contending for division titles.
5. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
10 of 14
Year at school: Sixth
Under contract through: 2018
A year ago at this time, Dan Mullen looked like he might be on the way out at Mississippi State. Despite three straight bowl seasons, the records weren't getting any better, and the Bulldogs looked like they were headed for a losing record, as three straight losses put them at 4-6.
MSU hasn't lost since then, rattling off three straight wins to end 2013 (including a dominant bowl victory over Rice) and a perfect 8-0 mark this season. The Bulldogs are No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings and have the inside track on not only their first SEC West title since 1998 and first conference title since 1941 but also their first shot at a national title.
Mullen has a quarterback who should vie for the Heisman Trophy in Dak Prescott, and an underrated bowling ball of a running back in Josh Robinson. Neither were major recruits, which is something that can be said about most of the Bulldogs' stars, which adds value to what Mullen has accomplished in Starkville.
"Dan is going to have an opportunity to be here as long as he wants to be," MSU athletic director Scott Stricklin told John Talty of AL.com in a story addressing Mullen's status as a hot coaching commodity who could get poached by another school after the season.
The school doesn't want to lose Mullen at this point, and if he decides to stick around after this season, he'll move into the level of untouchable coaches that are listed above him.
4. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M
11 of 14
Year at school: Third
Under contract through: 2019
Kevin Sumlin has done nearly everything Texas A&M could have possibly hoped for as the coach to lead the Aggies in their move from the Big 12 to the SEC. That's saying a lot, considering it's very likely his win total will end up going down during each of his three seasons with the program.
Sumlin went 11-2 in 2012, A&M's first season of SEC play that featured a landmark win over Alabama and the unleashing of Johnny Football onto the college football world. By winning big in the country's premier college football league, and doing so with a quarterback that his predecessor chose to redshirt, Sumlin endeared himself to the Aggies' supporters and made him about as bulletproof as you could be after one year.
Even after going 9-4 in 2013 with a defense that seemed capable of giving up touchdowns during timeouts, Sumlin remained on a lofty perch because he was dominating the in-state recruiting war—A&M was ranked 16th, ninth and fifth by 247Sports for Sumlin's first three classes, and the 2015 class currently rates as sixth-best—and he was bringing in droves of fundraising dollars.
He had his contract extended last November, cashing in on his name being attached to the USC job and other openings, and then opened this season at 5-0 with a dominant win at South Carolina to get the ball rolling.
A&M is now 6-3, having been shredded by the SEC West, and matching last season's nine wins seems unlikely. But Sumlin is firmly entrenched in College Station as long as he wants to be and as long as he keeps A&M as the king of Texas.
3. Les Miles, LSU
12 of 14
Year at school: 10th
Under contract through: 2019
Les Miles has won a national title and played for another at LSU, and an eighth 10-win season this year is very possible. The Tigers haven't been a serious title contender since their loss to Alabama in the all-SEC final after the 2011 season, but LSU's program doesn't give off that air of "national champs or bust" that some other schools have.
With Miles, what makes his job so secure is how well he fits at LSU, from his ability to recruit top talent and cultivate it into NFL stars (yet not drop off too much when he inevitably loses those players early to the draft) as well as how he identifies with the fanbase. The grass-eating, smooth-talking Miles looks right at home in Baton Rouge, at home during the night games in Death Valley, whether it's warm and clear or there's a "stiff dew" in the air.
LSU might not be at the top of college football as of late, and it briefly fell out of the rankings this season following losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. But in typical Miles fashion, since then, the Tigers have rallied back with seemingly improbable wins over Florida and then-unbeaten Ole Miss that, like nearly every game he coaches, were never dull regardless of the score or outcome.
2. Gus Malzahn, Auburn
13 of 14
Year at school: Second
Under contract through: 2019
Not a lot of achievements warrant giving a college football coach a massive raise and contract extension after one season. Going from 3-9 and winless in the SEC to the BCS national title game in that debut year is high on that short list, however.
Gus Malzahn was hired in late 2012 after one year at Arkansas State at a $2.3 million salary. According to Joel Erickson of AL.com, if he's still on The Plains in 2019, he'll be making $5.1 million, though odds are if he continues at anywhere near the level he established for himself after year one, that salary will be far greater.
Malzahn was Auburn's offensive coordinator when it won a national title after the 2010 season, and the Tigers were 30-10 in his three years running the offense. He was a welcomed hire at Auburn, unlike his predecessor Gene Chizik, who didn't come back to the Tigers with nearly as much fanfare when the school hired him away from Iowa State despite going 5-19 there.
Granted, that might change if Malzahn has a Chizik-level collapse, but there's no sign of that happening. Auburn is in line to make the playoffs a year after playing for the national title, and the future has never looked brighter at the school than it has in Malzahn's brief tenure at the helm.
1. Nick Saban, Alabama
14 of 14
Year at school: Eighth
Under contract through: 2021
Other than the coach who started this list, no spot was easier to rank than No. 1. When you make more than any other coach in college football—and do so by a landslide—and have an almost endowed spot on annual national title contender lists, there's no place else for Alabama's Nick Saban to be than at the top.
We're not saying Saban is invincible. Well, yes we are. There's no realistic scenario outside of a major NCAA scandal that would put Saban's job in jeopardy.
His willingness to stick around is the biggest determining factor in how long he lasts in Tuscaloosa, just as it was at LSU when the allure of the NFL won out. The speculation-fueled flirtation with Texas during the 2013 season led to his massive new contract, which pays him $6.9 million per year before bonuses.
And the adoration that his fanbase and the school's wealthy donors have for him can be seen in various ways, not the least of which was the recent move by a booster group to pay off the $3.1 million mortgage on his home. Those same boosters could probably scrounge up the coin to cover his buyout if the need ever arose to fire Saban, too, but that doesn't seem likely.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
