Assessing the State of the Tennessee Volunteers Football Program
Tennessee's game against South Carolina on Saturday night carries plenty enough immediate importance that it's nearing must-win status. But there are significant future ramifications as well.
The Volunteers may be slogging through yet another flirting-with-.500 season, but the coming years look bright on Rocky Top, and another win over the Gamecocks could signify a seismic shift in power between the two programs.
UT needs three wins in its final four games to become bowl-eligible. But, beyond that, head coach Butch Jones' career is ultimately going to be measured by how he fares against the Vols' three biggest SEC East rivals—Florida, Georgia, South Carolina—as well as Alabama.
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Another win over Steve Spurrier's bunch on the heels of a 23-21 upset of the Gamecocks in Neyland Stadium last season and an argument could be made that the Vols are on their way up in the division.
A loss means another year of waiting for a turnaround.
Trends don't equal wins, but a look at the way the Vols have been recruiting and how they've developed from a competitiveness aspect within the league indicates they'll soon be a contender.
Jones is about to follow up a seventh-ranked recruiting class of 32 players (of which the vast majority have played) with a growing 2015 class that already has 26 players and is ranked fourth nationally.
But can they surpass a Carolina program that, although struggling this season, has produced three consecutive 11-win seasons?
How about a Georgia team that has beaten its rivals five consecutive times?
Even though an embattled Florida program is likely on the verge of firing coach Will Muschamp, the Gators have still managed to beat the Vols 10 times in a row.
So, what's it going to take for UT to break through? The Vols will need more than just a win this weekend, but that would certainly be a positive first step.
Let's take a look at the state of the program moving forward.
Dobbs Development Vital for Vols Offense
Sophomore quarterback Joshua Dobbs holds the key to the immediate future of the Vols offense.
That may be putting a lot on his shoulders after just one strong game against Alabama, but it's true on several levels. Here's why:
First, Tennessee's marquee quarterback recruits will need time as understudies.
Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian may have struggled to lure a top-shelf quarterback prospect to Knoxville for much of his first year on the job, but recruiting has since picked up, and UT has a trio of solid commitments on the docket for the next two seasons.
- Texas signal-caller Quinten Dormady is the nation's 13th-rated pro-style passer in this year's recruiting class and chose UT over offers from Alabama, Oklahoma State, Kentucky and others.
- Murfreesboro athlete Jauan Jennings is a versatile player who could play receiver, linebacker or safety, but he'll get his first crack at quarterback where he's the nation's sixth-ranked dual-threat player on the 247Sports composite. His development has been impressive through his senior year.
- The Vols also secured one of their top targets for the 2016 class in North Carolina's Austin Kendall, the nation's eighth-ranked pro-style quarterback in that class.
Still, UT has to bridge the gap between now and a promising future. You can't expect a freshman quarterback to come into the SEC and perform at a championship level, so a strong Dobbs is just what UT needs.
Another reason Dobbs needs to be the quarterback of the present and future is to help out the young, inexperienced offensive line.
Given the undesirable position former coach Derek Dooley left Jones in the trenches, having a mobile quarterback in the interim until that position develops depth, talent and experience is vital to the program's success (and, therefore, Jones' job security) over the couple of seasons.
That's why Dobbs' development is imperative.
Nathan Peterman hasn't given any indications yet that he's an SEC quarterback. With Justin Worley out of eligibility, the Vols desperately need two strong seasons from Dobbs to bridge the gap.
Since Riley Ferguson left the program, it's him or a freshman.
At running back, UT is recruiting as well as anybody, and it appears position coach Robert Gillespie is going to have an able stable for years to come.
Already on the roster is Jalen Hurd, who has 581 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns as a freshman despite missing most of two games with injuries and running behind a porous line. He is going to be a star.
Fellow freshman Derrell Scott was coveted by some of the nation's top teams out of high school, and his ceiling is also high.
With former Alabama runner Alvin Kamara—the nation's second-ranked JUCO runner, North Carolina bruiser Rocky Reid and in-state speedster Vincent Perry already in the fold in the 2015 class, UT has some future options. And the Vols are in the mix for several other elite backs in this class.
Tennessee's receivers are young and extremely talented, and Jones is adding 5-star prospect Preston Williams to the mix next year to complement Marquez North, Josh Malone, Josh Smith and Co.
Combine that with the young tight ends who've already made an impact this season and the Vols are strong at the skill positions.
Offensive line issues abound, but the influx of four players into the mix next year should help. Tennessee has to build depth and talent there, but the only lineman who won't be back is redshirt senior Jacob Gilliam.
Though the group has taken knocks this year, the experience will serve the linemen well down the road.
Defensive Centerpieces Coming
Tennessee's defense is two impact defensive tackles away from being extremely difficult to handle.
Good news for the Vols is they've got those coming. Kahlil McKenzie is the nation's second-ranked defensive tackle and the bell cow of UT's class, and Shy Tuttle is the sixth-rated defensive tackle. Both are Vols commits.
Factor those two into a unit that already has improved dramatically in the two years John Jancek has been at the helm and it's exciting to think about the future of UT's defense. The Vols have gotten better in every facet of the game from a season ago on that side of the ball.
| Total Defense | 343.8 (6th) | 418.4 (11th) |
| Scoring Defense | 22.9 (8th) | 29.0 (10th) |
| Rush Defense | 162.5 (10th) | 207.3 (13th) |
| Pass Defense | 158.4 (2nd) | 211.1 (7th) |
| Opponent First Downs | 17.8 (4th) | 21.3 (11th) |
| Opponent Third-Down Conversions | 33.6% (5th) | 42.5% (12th) |
| Tackles For Loss | 7.9 (1st) | 5.4 (13th) |
Though Jancek's scheme thrives on being able to throw different looks and waves of athletes at opponents, UT's depth and size struggles on the interior have manifested themselves into the SEC's 10th-best run defense.
UT already has run through the gauntlet portion of its schedule, so that number should improve. The remaining opponents (South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt) should even out the stats somewhat, but the bottom line is the Vols' rush defense woes have to get fixed quickly.
McKenzie and Tuttle are expected to help.
When they are thrown into a rotation that already includes the league's top freshman defender in Derek Barnett (second in the league in tackles for loss) and future stalwarts such as Dewayne Hendrix, Corey Vereen and Dimarya Mixon, UT will be even more talented up front.
On the second level, there's no denying the impact of senior linebacker A.J. Johnson, the SEC's active leader in career tackles and Butkus Award semifinalist.
But with the emergence of Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Chris Weatherd and Cortez McDowell as well as the promise of Dillon Bates, Jakob Johnson and others, UT has some potential playmakers.
As a matter of fact, coaches feel so strongly about their depth and talent at linebacker that they've taken only two in this recruiting cycle and may not add another.
UT's stingy secondary is extremely young and features emerging stars like Cameron Sutton and Todd Kelly Jr. With the way he's coaching, DBs coach Willie Martinez is taking advantage of his prowess as a recruiter.
Cornerbacks Micah Abernathy, Darrell Miller and safety Stephen Griffin head a defensive backs class that is big and physical, so Martinez is going to have size and speed to develop, too.
Add the potential of local athlete Jocquez Bruce to play back there and UT will have plenty of options moving forward.
Bottom Line
While making a bowl game would be huge for the perception and direction of this program, the future of Tennessee doesn't hinge on this year's results.
This is only the beginning of Jones' massive rebuilding project that seems neither ahead nor behind of schedule. Instead, UT has performed as expected during an extremely difficult stretch of scheduling the past two seasons.
Tennessee losing hasn't affected recruiting, which is good for the Vols considering they've probably only got an outside shot of making the postseason again this year. Instead, UT remains one of the hottest teams in the nation in living rooms.
Problem is, most others in the SEC are recruiting extremely well, too.
It's going to be difficult for UT to catch up simply because the nation's toughest league is only getting stronger. While the Vols are fourth in the nation in recruiting, they're just third in the SEC, behind Alabama and Georgia, who are both perennially on the schedule.
The Gamecocks aren't far behind with a class of 27 players that ranks sixth nationally.
The Vols' past problems haven't centered on recruiting, even though Jones has that aspect going better than it has since the heyday of the late 1990s under Phillip Fulmer. It's been development of those players once they get on campus.
It's early still, but the defensive improvements are extremely promising in that regard.
Throw in how much improved Bajakian's scheme appeared with a mobile quarterback in place and there's reason to believe things are trending upward for the entire program.
Now, the only thing left is translating all that into wins. This week would be an ideal time to start.
All stats and information taken from CFBStats.com, and all recruiting information gathered from 247Sports.com.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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