Breeders' Cup 2014: Entries, Predictions for Classic Finale
The 2014 Breeders' Cup Classic caps the premier end-of-year, annual horse racing showcase at Santa Anita Park in epic fashion with a $5 million purse and a sensational field of competitors.
To provide an idea of the quality of horses that will be lining up in the starting gates in Arcadia, California, come Saturday, California Chrome is one of the 15 entries.
This season's Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion isn't even the odds-on favorite, though. That honor goes to Shared Belief, listed at 9-5—shorter than California Chrome's 4-1. Multiple other Triple Crown participants will be featured in the Classic, too.
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Below is a closer look at the field and their connections, followed by predictions as to who will finish in the money.
Note: Statistics and information on entries are courtesy of BreedersCup.com.
2014 Breeders' Cup Classic
When: Saturday, Nov. 1
Where: Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California
Post Time (ET): 8:35 p.m.
TV: NBC
| 1 | Prayer for Relief | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Dale Romans | 30-1 |
| 2 | Cigar Street | John Velazquez | William Mott | 12-1 |
| 3 | Imperative | Lanfranco Dettori | George Papaprodromou | 30-1 |
| 4 | Moreno | Javier Castellano | Eric Guillot | 20-1 |
| 5 | V.E. Day | Joseph Talamo | James Jerkens | 20-1 |
| 6 | Shared Belief | Mike Smith | Jerry Hollendorfer | 9-5 |
| 7 | Bayern | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 6-1 |
| 8 | Zivo | Jose Lezcano | Chad Brown | 15-1 |
| 9 | Toast of New York | Jamie Spencer | Jamie Osborne | 12-1 |
| 10 | Footbridge | Rafael Bejarano | Eoin Harty | 30-1 |
| 11 | Tonalist | Joel Rosario | Christophe Clement | 5-1 |
| 12 | Candy Boy | Corey Nakatani | John Sadler | 20-1 |
| 13 | California Chrome | Victor Espinoza | Art Sherman | 4-1 |
| 14 | Majestic Harbor | Tyler Baze | Sean McCarthy | 20-1 |
| 15 | Big Cazanova | Elvis Trujillo | Peter Miller | — |
Predictions
Win: Shared Belief
In extending his perfect record to seven wins in as many starts in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes, Shared Belief will nevertheless be a constant source of debate as the top Classic favorite.
Even with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the irons, there is reason to doubt this exceptional horse, if only for the formidable adversaries he'll be facing.
Most 3-year-old favorites have come up empty in their bids to get to the winner's circle, per statistics expert Gary Dougherty:
Sportscaster Jim Rome is Shared Belief's majority owner, but he and others hold stakes in the talented gelding. Rome certainly appeared pleased by his horse's perseverance after the latest triumph:
All scheduling responsibilities were left to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who seems to have pushed all the right buttons in boosting Shared Belief into a great late-season run that's featured two Grade 1 wins.
"It's amazing how cordial and smoothly that part of it went," said Hollendorfer, per the Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman. "If you know you have a good horse and you can’t be around for the first part of the year, you can still be around for the second half of the year."
Shared Belief has been positioned to thrive in this race, while many of his opponents that figure to offer the biggest challenge were slanted more toward the Triple Crown season.
Smith's experience should be enough to keep Shared Belief's undefeated streak going, and Shared Belief's close call in the Awesome Again at this track shows he can overcome an unideal run and still win.
Place: Tonalist
The Belmont Stakes winner dashed California Chrome's Triple Crown aspirations, and he will fare well at Santa Anita Park thanks to superior speed and stamina.
Tom Cassidy of TVG Network referenced the latter attribute in his analysis of Tonalist's chances in the Breeders' Cup Classic:
Jockey Joel Rosario was the No. 2 prize money earner amongst his peers in 2013 and is second again this year (per Equibase.com). Rosario also got the mount in Tonalist's spoiler Belmont Stakes victory, so he has a great feel for the horse as it is.
Instead of taking it easy following the seizing of the Triple Crown's final bijou, Tonalist has been busy.
The results have been trending in the right direction, too. He's finished in the money in all three stats since, capped by a win in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes most recently.
That bodes well for Santa Anita Park, where his big frame should hold up better than most amid traffic issues, which are bound to happen with such a big field.
Show: California Chrome
California Chrome's grueling Triple Crown schedule saw him run out of steam, finishing fourth at Belmont Park in a bid to complete the coveted trifecta.
The Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby was meant to be a tuneup, but California Chrome only managed to run sixth against lesser horses in that one, fading down the stretch as fellow Classic entrant Bayern took the victory.
Victor Espinoza, who has been aboard for all of California Chrome's epic Triple Crown glory, spoke about the underwhelming result, the first start for his horse since the Belmont Stakes, per U-T San Diego's Ed Zieralski:
"I knew I was in trouble on the first turn. They went out smoking out of the gate, and then they really slowed down, like they were walking in front of me. It was going to be hard to catch (Bayern). Sometimes they don’t ride to win; they ride to beat you. But I didn’t want to abuse him today. I was desperate to get him out, but I wanted him to run his race and not override him. He has a long time off. I think this race will set him up for the next one.
"
The twinge of optimistic spin looking forward is promising, yet Saturday's start will come only a little more than a month after the letdown, which was California Chrome's worst finish of 2014.
He may be fresher and in better competitive shape for the Breeders' Cup Classic, but it's unlikely California Chrome will return to his previous, elite level. As disappointing as it might be for California Chrome's connections to finish this far off the first-place pace, it still doesn't diminish his amazing season.
Given the minimal, $10,000 investment it took to acquire California Chrome and place in the capable hands of trainer Art Sherman and Co., two Triple Crown victories and a Breeders' Cup Classic finish in the money is a raging success.
Getting into the top three in Arcadia would lock up one of the better individual horse racing seasons in recent history.
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