World Series 2014: Key Stats to Know for Giants vs. Royals Game 7

For the first time in three years, the World Series will offer us a Game 7. The San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals will meet one more time with the winner being crowned champion, though the storylines run much deeper than that. 

You would think after 162 games in the regular season and another month of postseason action that there wouldn't be anything left to know about the Giants and Royals. You would be wrong. 

The magic of baseball is that there's always something new to learn about a team, player, situation, etc. Prior to Wednesday's Game 7, these are the stats you need to know that will play a key role in deciding the outcome of this year's World Series. 

Too Much Rest For Hudson?

Don Boomer/Associated Press

Without question, the biggest storyline heading into this game is whether Madison Bumgarner will be available to pitch, and how long if so. It seems highly unlikely that Bruce Bochy will let this game end without his best pitcher touching the ball, but we know for sure that Tim Hudson will get the start. 

That's not necessarily a bad thing. After all, Hudson was effective over 5.2 innings in Game 3 with three earned runs on four hits. The stat to know is that it came five days ago. 

According to ESPN's David Schoenfield, Hudson has been more effective this season on four days of rest instead of five. 

"For what it's worth, in the regular season he had a 2.98 ERA when starting on four days of rest (14 starts) and 4.52 on five days of rest (13 starts)," Schoenfield wrote. "He'll be starting this game on five days of rest."

While the sample can be considered small, keep in mind that Hudson is a pitcher who needs to feel at his best. Schoenfield also noted that Hudson has used his sinker at least 55 percent of the time in three playoff starts compared to 47 percent in the regular season. 

The sinker is a feel pitch, especially compared to a traditional fastball. It requires a different arm angle and grip to generate the natural downward movement that makes hitters beat the ball into the ground. That's dangerous when you have a team that puts the ball in play at the rate Kansas City does. 

We make so much out of how much rest pitchers get, but in Hudson's case it is clear that something isn't the same when he starts with extra rest. He's been waiting for this moment his entire career, but there's no margin for error if he's struggling. 

Jeremy Guthrie, Non-Strikeout Artist

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Going to the other pitcher in this game, Jeremy Guthrie is one of the most unlikely Game 7 starters in history. Nothing about his resume screams "guy you want on the mound in a must-win spot." He's got a career 4.23 ERA, 1.319 WHIP and a modest 2.08 strikeout-to-walk ratio, per Baseball-Reference.com. 

A problem Guthrie has is not missing bats and giving up a lot of fly balls. He allowed a 36.7 percent fly-ball rate according to FanGraphs, though that doesn't hurt him as much thanks to Kansas City's outfield defense. 

The lack of strikeouts, however, can turn into a big problem. Jayson Stark of ESPN did note that Guthrie made history in Game 3, though it's not necessarily something to brag about:

As we saw in Game 6, in which so many of the balls Kansas City put in play ended up in hits or caused miscommunication by the Giants, allowing so much contact can result in bad things. Guthrie's inability to miss bats means the Giants will have plenty of chances to get baserunners. 

This is where the upside of Kansas City's blowout win in Game 6 comes into play. Ned Yost didn't have to use his three-headed monster of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland in the game, so all three are as fresh as they have been since the postseason started. 

Yost said at his pregame press conference that he won't hesitate to make a move to the pen, via Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star:

That could also throw a monkey wrench into the equation. Suppose Yost has to use his top relievers for six innings, but wants to get two out of each. We've seen his plans to get multiple innings out of Herrera blow up in his face already this series, so whom does he turn to in a situation if one or two of those relievers isn't throwing well?

This is the danger of starting a must-win game with a mediocre (at best) starting pitcher, though at least there's a track record of success with that bullpen to fall back on. 

Madison Bumgarner, Ace Reliever

After touching on it above, now we get into the elephant covering the entire Kauffman Stadium outfield. Bumgarner, who has been masterful all postseason and held the Royals to one run on seven hits in 16 innings, will take the mound at some point in Game 7. 

While that last statement is just my opinion, Bochy can't let this moment get by without using his best pitcher. The only scenario it won't be necessary is if the game is a blowout, one way or the other. 

Bochy addressed Bumgarner's pitch count in a potential relief situation, saying the left-hander is usually good for 40-50 pitches on his side days, via Andrew Baggarly of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area:

Using Bumgarner's average of just under 14 pitchers per inning in the World Series (223 total in 16 innings), he should be good for at least two or three innings.

With that stat out there, the question then becomes: How has Bumgarner fared out of the bullpen in the past? Not surprisingly, he's been very good. Here are the numbers, per Ace of MLB Stats:

It's not a huge sample, but at least it gives us something to focus on. His only postseason relief appearance came in Game 6 of the 2010 NLCS against Philadelphia, in which he threw two shutout innings in the Giants' victory. 

In an ideal world, the Giants will get five strong innings out of Hudson. That will allow Bochy to bring in Bumgarner for at least the sixth and seventh innings, possibly the eighth, before going to Santiago Casilla in the ninth. 

Since pitching is so pivotal in a one-game scenario, everything that happens on the mound tonight will be magnified. Once we get into the bullpens, it's anyone's guess what will go on, because the Royals have their trio of arms rested and the Giants have their best pitcher on a side day. 

Given how untouchable Bumgarner has looked against the Royals, any situation that gets him in gives San Francisco an advantage. Kansas City can take solace in knowing that there's almost no chance he will finish the game, giving it a chance to put runs on the board early or late. 

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