Final Series Golf 2014: Predictions for Top Stars in Field
Who's not in the field at the BMW Masters at Lake Malaren Golf Club in Shanghai? World No. 1 and Race to Dubai points leader Rory McIlroy won't play as he tends to a court case, per Phil Casey of the Press Association (via Daily Mail). Neither will Henrik Stenson, whose wife just gave birth to the couple's third child.
The man behind McIlroy in the RTD standings, Sergio Garcia, will also sit this one out in favor of the PGA Tour's CIMB Classic in Malaysia.
That dynamic leaves a pool of good players to attempt to close the gap between themselves and the leaders in the series' first tournament.
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This is the first of four tournaments that make up the Final Series. Following the BMW Masters, the European Tour goes to the WGC-HSBC Champions in Sheshan GC in Shanghai, and the last two legs are Turkish Airlines Open at Montgomerie Maxx Royal in Belek/Antalya, Turkey and DP World Tour Championships at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai.
McIlroy isn't expected to play before the final tournament in the series.
Here are predictions for the top stars of the European Tour in this very important series of tournaments.
Justin Rose
The Northern Irishman is in the best position to make moves with McIlroy, Stenson and Garcia out of action.
Rose is currently eighth on the RTD standings and sixth in the world rankings. While Rose admits catching McIlroy might be unrealistic by year's end, he seems to have his eye on reaching a personal best.
Rose told Daniel Hicks of AFP (via Business Insider):
"I'm not sure I can catch Rory, I haven't really done the maths 100 percent. The aim is to strengthen my world ranking as much as possible. If I was to play well and win a few tournaments before the end of the season I could get myself to second place in the world rankings which would be a personal best.
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Rose might be feeling a bit of pressure to shine in Shanghai with so many top names out of action. If he gets off to a good start on Thursday, he will create some breathing room for himself. He'll be able to settle into a rhythm that will be good for his game through the weekend.
When he's scored in the 60s in the first round of his last six tournaments, he's had top-four finishes. Look for a strong start in Dubai and a comfortable win in the first tournament.
As the better players make their way into the series, Rose will fade toward the middle of the pack and settle for one win in four tries.
Rory McIlroy
The world's best player will likely hold onto his lead until he returns to action in Dubai, per Golf.com. A strong surge from Rose or Garcia over the next three tournaments could put some real pressure on him, though.
McIlroy must guard against getting too comfortable and satisfied with his success. He's finally attained the stardom, notoriety and respect he desired.
Maintaining it will be the most difficult part. He needs to steer clear of more distractions. Coming off a long layoff, it would be unfair to expect McIlroy to win in Dubai though he'll probably be the favorite.
Still, I don't see him winning again before the new year.
Henrik Stenson
Stenson is one of the most consistent players on either tour. He finished second at the Volvo World Match Play Championship and had a strong showing in American majors this year.
He should be refreshed when he returns to the course after spending quality time with family.
Stenson won in Dubai last year, and though he's missing the first tournament in Shanghai, the 38-year-old from Sweden is a good bet to capture a win in one of the final three tournaments.
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