Biggest Surprises from College Football Playoff Committee's Rankings
After two months of hearing about weekly meetings between the 13 (and eventually 12) members of the College Football Playoff selection committee, the curtain was finally pulled back on their clandestine work with Tuesday's first playoff rankings.
Before that Top 25 was released, all we could do was speculate as to how the committee would factor in big wins, key losses, schedule strength and countless other factors to rate the nation's top teams. Now we have some clarity, as well as the opportunity to pick apart what the committee has done to this point.
Many teams landed where expected, based on where they sat in the Associated Press and Amway polls, but the committee did manage to throw a couple of curveballs in how they ranked certain teams. Here's a look at the biggest surprises from the initial CFP rankings.
Auburn Is the Best (One-Loss Team)
1 of 6
The top two spots in the first CFP ranking were pretty much a given, with Mississippi State and Florida State the only unbeaten power-conference teams remaining. The real intrigue was how the committee would rank the long list of one-loss teams, particularly which ones would get top billing (and if-it-happened-now spots in the semifinals).
And the winner was ... Auburn?
Auburn is the No. 3 team at this point, which appears to be based on a combination of its loss coming on the road against No. 1 Mississippi State as well as its impressive road win over No. 9 Kansas State. The Tigers' 34-point beatdown of LSU is looking even better now that LSU has rebounded and has just beaten Ole Miss.
Being No. 3 now means little for Auburn, other than that it has a leg up on the rest of the one-loss teams if it continues to win. Unless the committee chooses to leapfrog teams based on the quality of their wins, the Tigers control their own destiny, yet it won't be an easy road with No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 11 Georgia and No. 6 Alabama all on the road in November.
Alabama Is Fourth-Best in Its Own Division
2 of 6
After the standings came out, and the initial shock of seeing Alabama not only outside of the top four but all the way at sixth (despite being No. 3 in the AP and coaches' polls and No. 1 in Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings), selection committee chairman Jeff Long explained that the margin between the Crimson Tide, No. 5 Oregon and No. 4 Ole Miss was "paper thin."
Since no ratings accompany the CFP rankings like they did with the BCS standings, we don't know exactly how thin that is. Having Alabama behind Ole Miss makes sense, since the committee has mentioned repeatedly it plans to give heavy weight to head-to-head matchups, and Ole Miss handed 'Bama its defeat.
Seeing the Tide behind Oregon was surprising, however. Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban might have been shocked, too, but he's publicly taken the high road and declared his disinterest, according to Michael Casagrande of AL.com:
"It only matters where you end up at the end. So what matters to us is how we do in each and every game that we have to play. We have four games left to play, and if we can be successful in those games, maybe there's a chance we will play in the SEC Championship Game as well. None of it matters if we're not successful in our games. So I don't even care, to be honest with you. Don't know and don't care.
"
If there's going to be any shuffling in the upcoming weeks, \seeing Alabama jump ahead of the Ducks is a strong possibility since Alabama still has three ranked opponents left, including two teams ranked above it (Mississippi State and Auburn, both at home).
No Love for Notre Dame
3 of 6
While several teams are ranked higher by the CFP than they are in the AP and coaches' polls, Notre Dame is on the other end in that it sits much lower on this all-important list. As Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde wrote, this is a result of the Fighting Irish's reputation in the public eye holding little value with the selection committee:
"The committee is far less in love with Notre Dame than the poll voters are. The Fighting Irish are sixth in the AP poll and seventh in the USA Today coaches poll, but 10th in the selection committee rankings. The committee seems to have put plenty of emphasis on quality wins, and Notre Dame has none. Stanford’s regression and Michigan’s flop have hurt the Irish resume – and losing close to Florida State is still a loss.
"
Yes, Notre Dame was a rightly called pick play at the goal line away from being unbeaten, and possibly No. 1 in the rankings, but it's not. Instead, it's one of many one-loss teams, and frankly one that's lacking much else on paper to rave about.
All isn't lost for Notre Dame, though, with a Nov. 8 game at No. 14 Arizona State and another tough road clash three weeks later at USC. Those high-profile games could help bridge the gap, especially if paired with enough losses from teams rated above the Irish.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Nebraska Is Ranked Ahead of Ohio State
4 of 6
The Big Ten has taken a beating in the PR department this season, with the league failing to register any significant nonconference wins and Michigan State's 19-point loss at Oregon counting as its most "positive" result.
Heading into the first CFP ranking reveal, though, both MSU and Ohio State were still expected to be in contention for the playoffs as long as neither team lost again. Yet when the rankings came out, the most surprising development for the Big Ten wasn't that Michigan State sits in a manageable No. 8 spot but that Nebraska was the second-highest member, at No. 15.
The Cornhuskers have rather quietly gotten off to a 7-1 record, only getting attention when it lost at Michigan State. That game was a 27-3 margin early in the fourth quarter before Nebraska tried to make a fierce comeback, falling by five.
Nebraska has otherwise steamrolled, and with the Big Ten West looking like the deeper side of the conference and remaining games against Iowa and Wisconsin to help its resume, this team could be in the top 10 heading into a potential Big Ten final against Ohio State or Michigan State.
Don't count the 'Huskers out yet, especially not with Ameer Abdullah churning out big yards every week.
Marshall Didn't Make It
5 of 6
Outside of the top spots, the other major intrigue associated with the first CFP rankings was how it would rank teams from outside the power conferences. The so-called group-of-five leagues (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) are guaranteed a spot in one of the six top bowls, with the highest-ranked team from this lot getting that berth.
Only one group-of-five team made it into the first Top 25, and that was East Carolina at No. 23. The Pirates were expected to be in the mix, based on their rankings in the AP and Amway polls, but unbeaten Marshall has a national ranking with them as well.
Not with the CFP, at least not yet.
The Thundering Herd, at 8-0, have been the most dominant team in the nation, scoring at least 35 in every game and winning by no fewer than 15 each time out. The problem, though, lies in who they've beaten.
Marshall's eight opponents have a combined record of 24-42, leading to a schedule strength of 147th in Sagarin's ratings. Sagarin ranks all FBS and FCS teams together, and with only 128 in FBS, that gives you an idea of how well-regarded the Herd's schedule is.
It doesn't get much better, either. The remaining teams are 14-16, with only defending Conference USA champ Rice currently above .500 (at 4-3).
Who You Beat Trumps Who You Lost To
6 of 6
The committee has 15 consecutive one-loss teams ranked from third to 17th in its initial poll, a muddled pile of sameness that had to be sorted through since having a 15-way tie would have resulted in pitchforks and torches outside the Gaylord Texan Hotel in Dallas, where they compiled their rankings.
In the end, it appears the most notable criteria they used was the quality of a team's wins as opposed to the perception of the team they lost to. This ties in with giving weight to head-to-head results, which makes sense, but it is still surprising since that doesn't seem to always be the case in the traditional polls released each week by the media and coaches.
Oregon's win over No. 8 Michigan State, as well as a road victory against No. 22 UCLA, was enough to offset the loss to No. 12 Arizona and keep it ahead of Alabama, whose best win is over No. 20 West Virginia. Ole Miss got fourth because it's beaten No. 6 Alabama, which was more noteworthy than losing at No. 19 LSU, and Auburn's victory at No. 9 Kansas State (combined with a loss to top-rated Mississippi State) earned it the edge over the rest of the one-loss teams.
With so many one-loss teams, seeing one with two losses get into the final four doesn't look good. Another loss will all but eliminate each of these contenders, but just winning out won't automatically move them up. Win quality is at a premium.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
