Breaking Down What to Expect from Dante Exum's Rookie Season with Utah Jazz
Rarely do we see NBA rookies as enigmatic and intriguing as Utah Jazz guard and Australia native Dante Exum.
Mystery and excitement surround the rangy 19-year-old prospect who took an unorthodox route to land at No. 5 overall in the 2014 draft.
He didn't grow up in the USA or come over to play college hoops, nor is he a European player emerging from a reputable Spanish team or Mediterranean squad. Rather, he grew up playing basketball Down Under, roughly 8,000 miles from Salt Lake City.
Less than a year ago, he was playing in the Australian National High School Championships. Things are a little different this autumn: During opening week, he's already shared the court with megastars like Dwight Howard, James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.
Whether he's ready or not, Exum is on the big stage. What can we expect from him during his rookie campaign?
His Role
The Jazz used their lottery pick on Exum because he has explosive combo guard potential, but at the time, they didn't know exactly how they would use him. In fact, coach Quin Snyder will probably continue to feel things out over the next few weeks and determine how to best employ the 6'6" playmaker.
After summer league play and preseason action, at least we got a clearer picture of what his general role is for Utah in the immediate future.
Exum spent a sizable chunk of his time in Las Vegas playing off the ball as Trey Burke's 2-guard sidekick. The results were mostly underwhelming, with Exum stagnant on the wing or corner and only scarcely threatening opposing defenses.
His court vision and passing skills as point guard, however, cultivated the notion that he should play at the 1 in 2014-15.
"Based on everything we've seen, both prior to and after the draft, Exum clearly looks most comfortable and effective making plays off the dribble," wrote Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. "And he's a rhythm player—when Exum's confidence starts pumping after a few made plays, he's capable of generating offense at will."
During preseason play, he didn't stuff the stat sheet: RealGM indicates he managed 6.1 points, 2.6 assists in 20.0 minutes per night. But we saw stretches of promising dual-threat creativity, including a 13-point, six-assist effort against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Snyder knows his young newcomer is most comfortable as an initiator and primary facilitator, so it looks like he'll be playing Exum mostly at the point in 2014-15.
With Trey Burke running the show as Utah's clear-cut top quarterback, Exum's minutes will come off the bench. He'll have to learn how to immediately manufacture offense as soon as he sheds his warm-up gear.
His defensive role is a bit more flexible at this point, as he can use his combination of size and speed to check both guard positions. Exum shows solid fundamentals for a rookie, and he'll be an asset more than a liability despite his youth.
Overall, he won't have a huge role this season. That doesn't mean it won't be important. He'll be the first ball-handler Snyder calls on whenever Burke is sitting and will be tasked with maintaining the team's fluidity.
His Impact and Numbers
Exum's numbers will depend on his playing time, and his playing time will depend largely on his ball skills effectiveness and chemistry with the team.
Although he's extremely athletic, mature and alert, it's a bit presumptuous to pencil him in for anything more than 20-25 minutes per night. There are some key areas he needs to address before he eclipses that range.
Exum is a good ball-handler and he's economical with his dribbling. However, he could work to make his handle tighter and must demonstrate more promise and proficiency with his left hand. He might struggle to execute drives that top-tier point guards pull off, as he'll need space to do damage one-on-one.
Outside shooting was a concern for Exum as he transitioned to pro ball, but it looks like he'll be a respectable catch-and-shoot threat early on. He'll sprinkle a triple or two per game, which will help his modest stat line.
Exum's length will help him fill the stat sheet in many areas: extra buckets, blocks, steals, rebounds, etc. On the other hand, his slight 190-pound frame could make him a problematic matchup in certain scenarios, which could limit his minutes.
One of the biggest tools that will help keep Exum on the floor is his concerted effort to connect with teammates and play in sync with them.
He quickly established a nice pick-and-roll rapport with center Rudy Gobert over the summer and during preseason. They kept things clicking on opening night of the regular season:
Expect more of that all year long. Exum exhibits tremendous timing and accuracy on passes and lobs, and he puts his comrades in brilliant position to score.
The young playmaker doesn't seem to be concerned with getting a bunch of his own field-goal attempts every night. He's willing to attack for himself, but he truly relishes spreading the ball around to teammates.
Whereas many inexperienced point guards tend to over-dribble, Exum tends to move the ball. Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey explains:
What does all of this mean for his statistical output?
Assuming he'll average 18-22 minutes per game, Exum will deliver unspectacular scoring numbers but encouraging assist averages. He'll post eight or nine points per night while dishing up to four assists.
His three-point shooting will be just accurate enough to stay above 30 percent, while his speedy forays to the hoop will result in three free-throw attempts each night.
Defensively, Exum is going to hit some rough patches and learn some lessons the hard way. Fortunately, he possesses more than enough focused energy and physical tools to make an impact.
The positives will outweigh the negatives on that end of the floor if preseason is any indication. Exum will poke free the occasional steal, but more importantly, he'll corral opposing guards and prevent penetration.
When setting the bar for the Australian import in 2014-15, it's important to remember he's just 19 years old. He's still adjusting to all the new physical and tactical dimensions of the NBA, and he's somewhat raw in a couple of areas.
Rookie of the Year contention is pretty much out of the question, as he won't get the usage and touches required to make that kind of noise. Jazz fans should be content to see him progress as an offensive leader—albeit as a key reserve.
He could fall short of expectations this year if he struggles to create and make his own shot. Teams could force him to become a scorer from mid-range or in the lane, and he might have trouble converting efficiently.
On the flip side, Exum could surpass aspirations if he consistently supplies a balanced attack on offense and stands out defensively.
| Min | Pts | Reb | Asst | Stls | TOV | FG% | 3FG% | |
| Ceiling | 24.2 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | .443 | .339 |
| Floor | 16.9 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.8 | .391 | .284 |
Like any young prospect, he's going to make mistakes such as forcing passes, failing to attack creases or being derailed by cagey veterans. But compared to most 19-year-olds, he is well-equipped to handle the transition to the NBA both physically and mentally.
Exum not only has extraordinary athletic gifts and basketball skills, but he has the demeanor and disposition to compete as a teenager. Even if immediate stardom isn't in the cards, healthy development is.
Anticipate inconsistent scoring output, but plenty of electrifying plays. Expect some frustrating moments, but more fun ones.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA and NBA Draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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