College Football Sleeper Teams with the Best Shot of Making the Playoff

The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first rankings of the season Tuesday evening, shining a light on how the people charged with creating the four-team bracket view the teams competing to be included in it.

The release of the rankings, more than anything, remind us that the season is nearing an end. But we're not so close that things can't change momentously. Last year at this time, Auburn was No. 11 in the BCS rankings and Michigan State was No. 22.

Both of those teams finished in the BCS top four.

In putting together this list, "sleeper" wasn't defined by any sort of quantitative metric. It was defined as any team that isn't being talked about as a legitimate threat to make the playoff.

Then, in listing the sleepers with the best chance of making the playoff, factors such as talent, coaching, current form and (most importantly) schedule were taken into consideration. This is not necessarily the best teams no one is talking about as a playoff contender; if it were, LSU might have made the cut.

It's the teams with the best chance of crashing the party.

No. 14 Arizona State

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Is Arizona State one of the four best teams in the country? No. Almost definitely not. But it might finish with one of the four best resumes.

The Sun Devils' next two games are against No. 17 Utah and No. 10 Notre Dame—and both games will be played in Tempe. That's a chance to land a pair of quality wins before winnable games at Oregon State and versus Washington State. After that, the Sun Devils end the year at No. 12 Arizona.

Depending on how the rest of the season turns out, the teams Arizona State has already played should flirt with rejoining/rising up the rankings too. Its only loss came against No. 22 UCLA, and wins over USC and Stanford were nice despite the Trojans and Cardinal both having three losses and falling out of the initial CFP poll.

Taylor Kelly's long-term health is an issue, but even with backup Mike Bercovici in the game, this offense has enough weapons to score with anyone. D.J. Foster is the best pass-catching running back in the country, and Jaelen Strong could make a case for being the best pass-catching player. Mike Norvell knows how to run an offense.

The bigger question is the defense, which has done an about-face by holding Stanford and Washington to 10 points apiece the past two weeks. Earlier this season, ASU's defense looked like a fatal liability. Recently, it has looked downright good.

At the very least, all the Sun Devils need is for neither of those things to be true—for their defense to fall somewhere in the middle—and they can finish the year 11-1 and compete for a spot in the CFP.

Stranger things have happened…I think.

No. 24 Duke

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Don't laugh.

Well…maybe laugh. It's strange to see Duke mentioned in this breath. And unlike Arizona State, which I said is "almost definitely not" one of the four best teams in the country, Duke is definitely, definitely not.

But have you seen what is left on Duke's schedule?

Here, I'll give you a peek:

• at Pittsburgh (4-4)
• at Syracuse (3-5)
• vs. Virginia Tech (4-4)
• vs. North Carolina (4-4)
• vs. Wake Forest (2-6)

The only game Duke lost the year was at Miami—a defeat that looks forgivable in hindsight. But Miami already has two conference losses. The Blue Devils control their own fate in the ACC, and they do so against the checklist of below-average teams seen above.

If it wins its next five games, David Cutcliffe's team would enter the ACC title game with one loss, ostensibly facing a rematch against Florida State. But 2014 FSU is not the same as 2013 FSU. The 2014 version can be had. Is Duke the proper team to have it? Probably not. But anything can happen in a 60-minute sample.

In looking for legit CFP sleepers, it's hard to find a team that controls its own destiny. Duke, in many ways, still does. It doesn't win sexy, but its defense ranks No. 18 on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings, and its special teams rank No. 5.

"I was asked by television afterwards about being bowl eligible," said Cutcliffe after his team's sixth win against Virginia. "I hadn’t even thought about it and that's as honest as I can be…I’m totally focused on ACC football and that’s all I really wanted to think about.

"It was one of those circumstances that you get in in that every game that you play is going to be bigger as you go forward."

One game at a time, Duke. One game at a time. 

No. 15 Nebraska

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Nebraska's case is all about schedule. It doesn't have a single ranked team left to play. Wisconsin might be ranked by the time the Huskers travel to Camp Randall, but for now, it is out of the Top 25.

Nebraska has a great shot at finishing 11-1.

In that case, Bo Pelini's team would be a win in the Big Ten title game—ostensibly over Michigan State or Ohio State—away from being a 12-1 conference champion. Its only loss would be a true road game in East Lansing, something the committee is apt to forgive.

The near loss against McNeese State is harder to forgive, but the 10-point win over Miami looks better in hindsight than it did at the time. The Hurricanes are playing some of their best football of the Al Golden era, and it's not inconceivable to think that they, like Nebraska, could win their division and play for a conference title.

Led by Heisman candidate Ameer Abdullah at running back, Nebraska has done what it's supposed to do against lesser opponents (other than McNeese State), dispatching of Illinois, Northwestern and Rutgers by a combined score of 125-55 in its three Big Ten wins.

You haven't heard the last of the Huskers.

No. 20 West Virginia

Chris Jackson/Associated Press

West Virginia faces the hardest road to the playoff of all the teams mentioned on this list because it, unlike the others, has two losses.

Much like the others, however, it controls its own fate in its conference. Its only Big 12 loss came against Oklahoma, and the Sooners have already lost two conference games. If the Mountaineers win out from here, they will claim the Big 12 title at 10-2.

If they win out from here, they will also claim wins over three teams in the current Top 13: Baylor (which they already beat), Kansas State and TCU. All three of those teams come to Morgantown.

"This game showed us some zero-sum action," wrote Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall after West Virginia's 34-10 win at Oklahoma State last weekend. "[West Virginia] is moving up and basically taking the place, however temporarily, of the tumbling 'Pokes."

Getting to the playoff with two losses would require some chaos from other conferences, but not as much as one might initially think. That holds doubly true if the two teams West Virginia lost against, Alabama and Oklahoma, finish the season strong. Both of those teams are capable of finishing the season strong.

Ipso facto, the 'Neers still have an outside chance.