Which Superstar PG's Future Is Brighter: Russell Westbrook or Chris Paul?
Eventually, someone is going to pull the NBA's point guard throne out from underneath Los Angeles Clippers superstar Chris Paul.
Now, whether that someone is one of Paul's positional peers or Father Time catching up to the 29-year-old remains uncertain. One player who could end up changing the guard is the the Oklahoma City Thunder's electric 25-year-old floor general, Russell Westbrook.
In fact, Thunder coach Scott Brooks said over the summer that the baton has already been passed.
"I believe Russell is the best point guard in basketball," Brooks said, per ESPN.com's Royce Young. "That's happened over time. I've seen Russell every practice, every game, every film session, and he's really put a lot of time into being the best point guard in basketball."
As someone so dependent on Westbrook's play for his own success—particularly with reigning MVP Kevin Durant sidelined by a Jones fracture—Brooks has plenty of motivation to trust Westbrook's talent. That said, Brooks' claim is far from being outlandish.
Of course, it's also not correct. Not yet, anyway.
Chris Paul Still Leads This Race
One glance at the stat sheet shows that Westbrook might be in Paul's neighborhood, but the latter has more than perception to thank for his standing atop the position.
| Paul | 19.1 | 46.7 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 125 | 103 | 25.9 |
| Westbrook | 21.8 | 43.7 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 108 | 102 | 24.7 |
By any measure, both players are transcendent talents.
Paul's 19-point, 10-assist campaign was the league's first in the last three seasons. Westbrook, meanwhile, was the only player to have averaged 22 points, seven assists and five rebounds over the past two years.
Despite having similarly massive impacts on the box score and suiting up at the same spot, the pair could not be any more different.
Paul is a surgeon, executing each carefully plotted move with mechanical precision. Westbrook is a daredevil, testing the limits of logic and physics, always putting on a show for his audience.
"Both Paul and Westbrook can win their team a game, even a series," Hardwood Paroxysm's Jordan White wrote. "Paul, however, will rarely be the reason for a loss...while Westbrook could very well cost his team everything. While that may make Paul the safer pick, it's also what may make Westbrook the more exciting one."
There is plenty to be said for excitement, particularly when it's paired with Westbrook's level of production.
Still, when looking at the future through a wide-angle lens, it's hard to stray away from the comfort found in Paul.
Pitfalls and Pressure
For all of his ability, there are risks attached to Westbrook. His trigger finger runs overly itchy at times, which can be construed as a cardinal sin considering how many minutes he logs aside a scoring savant like Durant.
Westbrook's shot selection too often grades out between iffy and inexcusable. That explains how one of the league's premier players has shot above 45 percent from the field just once in his six NBA seasons.
Compounding that problem is the fact his decision-making receives the same unflattering marks. Not only did he tie for the league lead in turnovers per game during the 2013-14 campaign (3.8), he has also committed the second-most giveaways over the past four seasons combined (1,005).
Those same issues cannot be found with Paul.
While he was just a 43.3 percent shooter his first two seasons in the league, he has connected on 48.3 percent of his attempts since. Only once has he averaged even 3.0 turnovers a night (2008-09), and his career average of 2.4 per game boggles the mind when considering how much time he spends on the ball.
As ESPN Insider Amin Elhassan explained (subscription required), Paul offers exactly what coaches hope to get from his position:
"I think when you sit down and describe 'What is a point guard? What do I want out of my point guard?' without the context of what my team looks like or who else is playing, you would end up describing Paul -- someone whose basketball IQ is off the charts and who can shoot and finish from anywhere on the court. And I think he has a pretty good balance between being a scoring guard and being a setup guy. A lot of guys in the league right now are either trending one way or the other, most of them being more aggressive scorers. I think Paul does as good of a job of toeing that line as anyone I've seen since Steve Nash in his prime.
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Now, Paul's resume isn't completely free of stains.
He has missed 32 games the past two seasons due to injury, and his health concerns could grow as sand continues to line the bottom of his hoops hourglass. He has also never led his team past the second round of the playoffs.
As Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry noted, Paul's Clippers are running short on time—and excuses—to realize their lofty postseason potential:
"By the time the Western Conference finals begin in May, Chris Paul will be on the wrong side of 30, Blake Griffin will be squarely in his prime, and Doc Rivers will be nearing the end of his second full year in L.A. Each of these guys is supposed to be among the best in the world at his particular job. Expectations have never been so high for this organization.
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In other words, the basketball world needs to see Paul guide his team down the long playoff road sooner than later.
Of course, similar concerns could be raised about Westbrook.
After appearing in every regular-season game his first five years in the league, the explosive point guard underwent three knee surgeries in 2013. A dominant postseason showing may have lowered those medical red flags—26.7 points, 8.1 assists and 7.3 rebounds—but he might need to be further removed from those procedures before questions about his health are completely silenced.
Westbrook, who remains ringless like Paul, also faces the daunting task of carrying this franchise without Durant, someone he shared the floor with for all but 41 of his 1,411 minutes last season, per ESPN.com's Ryan Feldman and Micah Adams. Durant's absence gives Westbrook and the rest of this roster a chance to grow, but the opportunity is every bit as challenging as it sounds.
And it's a far heavier burden than Westbrook can be expected to carry on his own., as he told Young:
"It's not about me. It's about our team. I can't win games by myself. I can't do anything by myself. ... Everybody keeps asking what I'm going to do and how I'm going to change. I think it's more about our team and what we can do.
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This challenge, particularly the way Westbrook plans to approach it, should be exciting for Thunder fans. Oklahoma City was a Western Conference finalist just last season, yet it still could sniff out a few avenues to improvement.
That being said, this is still a test. And tests can be aced or failed miserably.
Westbrook has to hope for the former if he has any visions of dethroning Paul in the near future. As long as one doesn't look too far down the line, the path Paul faces still appears the brightest.
The Long-Term Look
A lot of this debate hinges on one's definition of the "future." Considering the fragility of careers in this profession, it's hard to view anything through more than a three-year lens.
However, even if that widens to a five-year glimpse, Paul still stands as the superior choice.
Yes, his biological clock will rob him of some physical gifts over that stretch. But his genius-level basketball IQ will help him ease through that transition.
Paul is a master of deception. He understands as well as anyone the importance of changing pace. While he would surely like to keep that 100 mph heater in his repertoire, he can keep defenders guessing as long as a sizable disparity exists between his fastball and his off-speed stuff.
Not all point guards age well, but the smart ones tend to as long as their bodies cooperate.
Steve Nash was an All-Star at 38 and still a walking double-double in 2011-12 (12.5 points and 10.7 assists). Jason Kidd was the same age when he helped guide the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA title in 2011. John Stockton celebrated his 30th birthday by leading the league in assists in 1991-92 (13.7), then repeated the feat during each of the next four seasons.
Considering both the gap between Paul and all other point guards and how much of his game is built around something other than athleticism, he should age gracefully atop his position.
Westbrook won't find himself too far behind. With his physical gifts and unwavering competitive drive, the only things standing between him and a compelling case for the point guard lead are a more discerning shot selection and better ball control.
He could even close the argument by piloting his Thunder to a title before Paul can lead the Clippers to a championship. Rings tend to weigh a little too heavily in these debates, but that value would be warranted here.
Both Westbrook and Paul play prominent roles on similarly stacked rosters. If Westbrook is the first to climb the championship podium, he would be thrust into a deserved spot at the front of this position.
Short of a title run, though, Westbrook will find himself on the second tier behind Paul. And Westbrook isn't alone on that level. Stephen Curry, Derrick Rose and John Wall are all nipping at Paul's heels right along with Westbrook.
At some point, someone is going to find his way past Paul. But until proved otherwise, he remains the league's top floor general—for today and tomorrow.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
