Auburn Football: Tigers' Road to Making the College Football Playoff
AUBURN, Ala. — On Tuesday night, when the college football world awaited the first College Football Playoff rankings, Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn wasn't tuning in to ESPN.
A few hours earlier, in his weekly press conference, Malzahn said he wasn't going to pay attention to the highly anticipated release.
"It does not concern me at all," Malzahn said.
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So when his Tigers were unveiled as the No. 3 team in the new system, Malzahn was out on the practice field.
After all, Auburn is just a few days away from a tough road trip to Ole Miss, the new No. 4 team in the CFP Rankings.
And Saturday's important matchup is what has the full attention of Malzahn and the defending SEC champions.
"I’m viewing this Saturday as the biggest game on the schedule," Malzahn said. "We’ve got to go there and we’ve got to play well to win. That’s the only thing on our mind. We aren’t looking ahead to this and that. We are going to Ole Miss and we are trying to win the game."
Auburn is quite familiar with the "one game at a time" approach at this point in the schedule. The Tigers remember last season, when they took a loss to an SEC West opponent in the first half of the season and rallied to become conference champions.
As Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs noted several times on Twitter, this football program has been there before:
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Biggest Obstacles to Playoff Berth
Auburn has two home games and three road games left on its schedule, and all three trips away from Jordan-Hare Stadium are huge roadblocks.
As Mississippi State, which beat the Tigers earlier this month, continues its run atop the SEC standings, Auburn faces three one-loss teams that are also fighting to cement themselves into the first ever playoff.
All three teams have their impressive strengths and dangerous weaknesses, and so do the Tigers, who will most likely have to knock off all three teams on the road in order to get a spot in the final four.
Saturday's game against Ole Miss takes place against a team and inside a home-field environment that defeated rival Alabama earlier this season.
The Rebels boast the nation's top scoring defense but have a hard time running the football—and then there is quarterback Bo Wallace, who has shown excellence and, most recently, errors in the passing game.
Two weeks later, after a possible trap game at home against pass-happy Texas A&M, Auburn will face cross-divisional rival Georgia between the hedges in Athens. The Bulldogs are getting back to full strength on both sides of the ball after a slow start to the season, and Auburn has struggled in recent years inside Sanford Stadium.
Finally, following a home finale against Football Championship Subdivision opponent Samford, Auburn will travel to Alabama for the highly anticipated Iron Bowl—a rematch of last season's instant classic that could once again play a huge role in the national title picture.
Like Auburn, Alabama hasn't been consistently at its best throughout the season, but the likes of star wide receiver Amari Cooper and a loaded backfield will be focused on keeping pace with Auburn's explosive offense.
All three of these conference road games are equally important to Auburn's playoff hopes because just one loss would virtually eliminate the Tigers from contention.
Help Needed
Tuesday night's poll results confirmed what Auburn already expected, with only one loss to No. 1 Mississippi State and a road win against fellow playoff contender Kansas State: If the Tigers win out, they should be in the playoff, regardless of what happens to Mississippi State.
Auburn is currently the top one-loss team, and don't expect that to change in the month of November if the Tigers get through their brutal road schedule unscathed.
However, Auburn would like to get some help from fellow divisional foes Ole Miss and Alabama in ending Mississippi State's run to Atlanta for the SEC Championship.
The Bulldogs would need to lose twice for Auburn to win the West, so keep an eye on two dates: Nov. 15 (Mississippi State at Alabama) and Nov. 29 (Mississippi State at Ole Miss). Of course, the Tigers will have their hands full on both of those dates with the "Amen Corner" road trips.
Auburn winning out wouldn't guarantee a playoff spot, but the way the committee voted in its first poll shows how highly it values Malzahn's one-loss team at this point.
Prediction
I personally do not see Auburn having trouble with Texas A&M a week from Saturday in Jordan-Hare Stadium, and the Samford game will be another easy blowout win against an FCS opponent.
I also didn't pick the Tigers to lose at Ole Miss this weekend, although that game looks like it could easily go either way.
In the end, if Nick Marshall and Co. hold on to the football, I trust Auburn's offense to keep up its momentum against an Ole Miss defense that gave up a good chunk of rushing yardage against LSU last weekend.
However, judging by the quality of Auburn so far this season and the state of its last two road opponents, I do not think the Tigers will receive a playoff berth at the end of the schedule.
I see one more loss for Auburn, and I am leaning toward the Georgia game—a pick I made this preseason—as the one that will end those national title dreams.
Getting through three insanely tough road games against three playoff contenders looks to be too tall of a task for an Auburn team that has such a leaky secondary and lack of a pass rush.
The Tigers could improve in both of these areas this weekend against the Rebels and carry huge momentum into Athens and Tuscaloosa, but I don't see three straight road wins for this team right now.
I see Auburn finishing 10-2 this season, with both losses coming on the road against the top two teams in the SEC and earning a "New Year's Six" berth in either the Peach, Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.
But winning out and even earning a spot in the SEC Championship Game is nowhere near impossible for a team that has been nothing short of unpredictable. After all, I have been completely off the mark with my last three predictions.
All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting rankings and information courtesy of 247Sports. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is Bleacher Report's lead Auburn writer. Follow him on Twitter @JFergusonAU.
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