College Football Playoff Notebook: Don't Panic, That's Just What They Want
Have you thrown your computer through the nearest window yet? If so, that’s tremendous passion and dedication you’ve got there. If not, congratulations: You’ve made it through the very first week of the College Football Playoff era without obliterating one of your dearest electronic friends.
The 12-person College Football Playoff selection committee has spoken, revealing its first-ever Top 25 before Week 10 officially kicked off.
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Mississippi State |
| 2 | Florida State |
| 3 | Auburn |
| 4 | Ole Miss |
| 5 | Oregon |
| 6 | Alabama |
| 7 | TCU |
| 8 | Michigan State |
| 9 | Kansas State |
| 10 | Notre Dame |
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Yes, if the College Football Playoff started today—and thank goodness it does not—Mississippi State would play Ole Miss in the No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup, causing the state of Mississippi to combust. The other semifinal would feature No. 2 Florida State and No. 3 Auburn, which might sound familiar if you’ve been paying attention over the past year.
This is the part, however, where we are reminded that Week 9 of this season just took place. This also seems like a good time to remind you that last year at this time, when it was the computer-charged BCS tormenting our emotions, Michigan State was outside of the Top 25, and Auburn was outside of the Top 10.
Translation? Relax.
Take a big, deep breath as you mutter obscenities over your displeasure. Unless, of course, you’re part of the few puffy-chested fanbases enjoying the 30-minute ego massage. If that’s the case, puff that chest out and enjoy it while you can.
Revealing a Top 25 before we officially hit November is a decision based on financial gain. Really, it’s that simple. It’s a spectacle, an enormous network cash-grab and ingenious way to drum up interest in a fresh, new postseason. It will be remarkably effective in doing so, generating chaos, controversy and enormous ratings well before any of this truly matters.
After all, we just can’t help ourselves.
The reality, however, is that we’re just getting to know one another. Jeff Long, the selection committee chairman, admitted just that following the live television announcement via NFL.com's Bryan Fischer :
"Jeff Long: “The bottom line is it's early, it's close and it's going to change.”
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) October 28, 2014"
So sit back, embrace the anarchy and keep your eyes on the journey ahead rather than the decisions being made. If you do that, your computer should stay safe, at least for one more week.
As for other observations on the initial release, here are a few items that stuck out.
Your Early Winners: TCU, Oregon and Ole Miss
Being deemed a “winner” at this point in the process means little, although the first ranking provides perspective on the selection committee’s thought process, at least in the infant stage of this concoction.
When it comes to TCU, even with the meltdown loss at Baylor, it’s clear the room of 12 football minds values the Horned Frogs' overall resume up until this point. And the No. 7 ranking, behind four SEC teams that will clash, is significant because they’re ahead of the game, and more importantly, other teams in the Big 12.
The same could be said about Oregon, especially after losing to Arizona at home. The Ducks debuted at No. 5—the first team out of the mix—and they’re not far from moving up, according to Long via George Schroeder of USA Today:
"Jeff Long says gap between Ole Miss, Oregon and Alabama is “paper thin."
— George Schroeder (@GeorgeSchroeder) October 28, 2014"
And finally, Ole Miss should also be encouraged. Coming directly off a loss to LSU, the Rebels managed to stay in the playoff conversation. It speaks volumes to the difficulty of their schedule and path up to this point, but it also puts them in the driver’s seat with difficult games on the horizon.
Enjoy the SEC Dominance While It Lasts
The transition into this next point is obvious. Although SEC fans will undoubtedly enjoy having three teams in the Top Four, it’s a grouping that won’t last long. In fact, with Auburn headed to Ole Miss this weekend, this playoff dominance might be very short-lived.
That’s not to say that relative dominance is out of the equation. With Alabama directly below Oregon at No. 6 and Georgia creeping in the distance at No. 11, the scenario where two SEC teams get into the playoff is very real.
But with Alabama and Ole Miss still on Mississippi State’s schedule, Alabama-Auburn still to play and many meaningful—and challenging—conference games over the next six weeks, the SEC monopoly won’t hold up for long. ESPN's Tony Barnhardt pointed out key upcoming SEC matchups:
"Mark your calendars: Nov. 1: AU at Ole Miss Nov. 8: Bama at LSU Nov. 15: MSU at Bama; AU at UGA Nov. 29: AU at Bama; MSU at Ole Miss.
— Tony Barnhart (@MrCFB) October 29, 2014"
The SEC isn’t going away, but the landscape will shift greatly. (Still, let's hear those "S-E-C" chants anyway.)
There Is No Such Thing as a Good Loss, Notre Dame
Perhaps the most interesting development out of the Top 25 came when Notre Dame appeared on our televisions earlier than anticipated. The Irish, coming off a close, controversial loss at Florida State, checked in at No. 10, which was further down the list than many thought they’d be.
What became clear, even in this limited sample size, is that the committee values quality wins over quality losses. That might seem obvious, although we did learn more about Notre Dame in Tallahassee than in any prior game this year.
When it comes down to it, Brian Kelly’s best win, as it stands, came against a three-loss Stanford team. Outside of this South Bend victory, the resume isn't exactly jaw-dropping. As a result, Notre Dame was punished out of the gate.
With games at Arizona State, at USC and against Louisville still looming, however, there is still ample time to make an impression. This initial release was a setback, but the opportunity remains to alter the course and change minds.
No Love for Marshall
On the topic of schedules, no absence from the Top 25 was more noticeable than Marshall’s. The Thundering Herd enter Week 10 undefeated and No. 23 in the AP poll. However, the committee clearly penalized them for their weak path leading up to this.
While an undefeated Marshall team won’t sniff the College Football Playoff, this early reveal is significant. One non-power-five team will be chosen to play in one of the “major” bowl games.
East Carolina would appear to have the upper hand right now, debuting at No. 23, despite losing early at South Carolina. The Pirates still have losable games on the horizon, though, which could change this picture entirely.
Marshall’s schedule doesn’t exactly beef up, although the evaluation of this team will remain a work in progress. If Doc Holliday’s team continues to blow out inferior opponents, the committee will eventually take note. As a result, expect these scores and quarterback Rakeem Cato’s stats to reflect such efforts moving forward.
Basically, if you're playing Marshall, take cover.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
