Bowl Projections 2014: Predicting Best Scenarios for Top Contenders in Week 10
This is the week college football fans circled on their calendars the moment it was announced there would be a four-team playoff to determine the national champion. The first rankings for the College Football Playoff are released on Tuesday night, opening a Pandora's box of possibilities for the weeks to come.
After the dust settles from the madness on Tuesday night, teams have to go out and play to justify their rankings or improve their spots. That's what is interesting about this whole process: As still-very-early bowl projections trickle out, so much is going to change.
In addition to offering up some of the most-anticipated bowl predictions, this is a look at what the top national title contenders must do to improve their stock after Week 10.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| College Football Playoff | Date | Matchup | Projected Teams | |
| Championship Game | Jan. 12 | Semifinal Winners | Mississippi State vs. Auburn | |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 1 | Semifinal | Mississippi State vs. Alabama | |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Semifinal | Florida State vs. Auburn | |
| Top Bowl Games | Date | Matchup | Projected Teams | |
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 31 | ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame | Clemson vs. Notre Dame | |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | At-Large vs. At-Large | Oregon vs. Michigan State | |
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | At-Large vs. At-Large | Georgia vs. East Carolina | |
| Alamo Bowl | Jan. 2 | Big 12 vs. Pac 12 | Oklahoma vs. Arizona |
Top Title Contenders
Mississippi State (Week 10 vs. Arkansas)
The nation's top-ranked team showed some cracks against Kentucky in Week 9 but was able to escape with a 45-31 victory; Mississippi State's spot in the College Football Playoff is secure for now. It also helps that the Bulldogs will be playing an Arkansas team that has lost all four of its conference games by an average of 11 points.
ESPN Stats & Info's metrics have Mississippi State ranked as the No. 1 team in strength of record and game control. Those two stats measure a team's win probability per game on a play-by-play basis and the schedule it has played.
With those numbers in mind, the Bulldogs still have to prove more after the Wildcats gave them a good fight. That was a road game in the SEC, even if it was a mid-level team in the conference.
Dak Prescott has been more turnover-prone lately with three interceptions in the last two games, so it will be nice for him to go against a defense that ranks 60th in points allowed. Style points are everything in a game that you're supposed to win.
The Bulldogs had their potential letdown game last week against Kentucky but came through it unscathed. A win like the one they had against Texas A&M, with 48 points and 559 yards of offense, would do well to ease any doubts about their schedule heading into a November slate that includes Arkansas and Mississippi.
Florida State (Week 10 at Louisville)
Most pundits seem to agree that if Florida State is going to lose in the regular season for the first time since 2012, it will happen on Thursday night at Louisville. The Cardinals don't have a great team, but the defense has great raw stats that include the fourth-fewest points allowed per game.
Of course, you have to put things in context. Louisville's schedule so far has included Miami, Murray State, Virginia, FIU, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Clemson and North Carolina State. We are going to find out how good Bobby Petrino's team is this week.
Oddsmakers don't love the Seminoles in this spot, with Odds Shark noting they are a 3.5-point favorite.
If you follow trends closely, you know that the Cardinals will have to score at least 32 points to win this game. According to Corey Clark of The Tallahassee Democrat, Florida State has put up at least 31 points in every game started by Jameis Winston.
"In the 20 games started by quarterback Jameis Winston," Clark wrote, "the Florida State Seminoles have never scored less than 31 points. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has accounted for a staggering 59 touchdowns during that span and FSU has scored 123 TDs overall."
That does play into Louisville's strength on defense, per Clark:
"The Cardinals are second in pass-efficiency defense and third-down defense and fourth in the nation in scoring defense (14.6 points allowed).
They have allowed just three touchdown drives this season of longer than 40 yards. And in total, the Louisville defense has given up just five offensive TDs to FBS teams in 2014.
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Again, keep in mind the opposition. Considering how the odds have lined up for this game, all the Seminoles must do is come out of the game with a victory. Style points would be nice, but since they are the defending champions who have yet to lose a game this year, a tough road win in the conference is all that matters.
A statement would be nice because this is the last true test Florida State has at least until the ACC Championship Game, but winning on the road against a quality opponent is hard enough.
Auburn (Week 10 at Mississippi)
Everything below the top two teams is a muddled mess. That's what happens when everyone loses a game, but it does create great drama each Saturday. Since Alabama, currently ranked third in The Associated Press Top 25, is off this week, the spotlight goes to Auburn.
It's an excellent spotlight game to have, as the Tigers are traveling to The Grove for a showdown with a Mississippi team out to keep its title hopes alive coming off a devastating loss at LSU.
This game is a perfect example of why its pointless to get too hung up on the initial College Football Playoff standings, even though they are fun to look at. All of these jumbled SEC teams will play each other, so it will all work itself out by the end of the season.
The dynamic between these two teams will be fascinating to watch. Auburn is an offensive team that relies on the run. Gus Malzahn's team is 10th in rushing yards and 15th in points per game. They've run into trouble on defense at times, allowing 73 points in their last two games.
If Auburn's defense needs a break, it may find one against an Ole Miss team that is 50th in points per game and 83rd in rushing. The Rebels make their money on defense, allowing an FBS-leading 10.5 points per game.
One area to keep an eye on for the Tigers is special teams. Joel A. Erickson of The Birmingham News noted they have been dismal at returning kicks so far this season:
"A program that has returned a kickoff for a touchdown in each of the past six seasons ranks just 12th in the SEC, averaging just 20 yards per return overall.
The problem is starting to cost the Tigers field position. After a Ricardo Louis fumble on a kickoff return helped Mississippi State seal a win two weeks ago, Auburn failed to crack the 20 on either of its returns against South Carolina.
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In a game that doesn't figure to feature a lot of scoring on either side, field position becomes everything. The Tigers can afford a sloppy victory because of what we know about Mississippi's defensive capabilities. It would be nice to see their defense step up in a key spot, especially with games against Texas A&M and Georgia looming in the next two weeks.
Sometimes, though, it's just enough to survive and advance. That really is all that Malzahn can ask of his team as it prepares to enter the brutal final stretch that also includes the regular-season finale against Alabama.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
