Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi Rebels Betting Odds, Analysis and Pick

Ole Miss just suffered its first loss of this season but still ranks as one of the best teams in college football on which to wager with its 6-1-1 against the spread record. The Rebels will try to jump back on the winning track when they host defending SEC champion and West division rival Auburn Saturday night down in Oxford.

Point spread: Rebels opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.7-30.3 Rebels

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers bounced back from their first loss of the season two weeks ago at Mississippi State to beat South Carolina 42-35, avoiding what might have been a season-killing second SEC loss. Auburn racked up 551 yards of offense against the Gamecocks, 395 on the ground, as three different Tigers–Cameron Artis-Payne, Ricardo Louis and Nick Marshall–ran for at least 89 yards.

Auburn ranks 20th in the nation in total offense, 46th in total defense and has out-rushed opponents this season by an average of 161 yards per game. The Tigers will be going up against a stout Ole Miss defense, but last year, in a 30-22 victory, Auburn ran for 282 yards against the Rebels.

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

The Rebs just lost a tough game at LSU 10-7, allowing the game-winning score with five minutes to go, but there's no real shame in losing by a field goal in a place like Death Valley. Ole Miss hung onto a lead for as long as it could, but quarterback Bo Wallace had his toughest outing of the season, completing just 14 of 33 passes. Going into that game, the senior quarterback had hit on 64 percent of his throws, with 17 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

Offensively the Rebs only rank 64th overall, but the Ole Miss defense ranks ninth overall and first in points allowed, at just 11 per game.

Smart pick

Auburn has won four of the last five meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS in the process. The Tigers have also outgained every opponent this year but one and out-rushed them all. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has been outgained in three of its last four games. So the smart money here goes with Auburn, plus the points.

Betting trends

• Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing Mississippi
• Mississippi is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games when playing at home against Auburn

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.