LSU Football: Tigers' Road to Making the College Football Playoff
LSU has a chance, albeit slight, to make the College Football Playoff.
Despite the Tigers' losses against Mississippi State and Auburn, they can still go unbeaten the rest of the way and have a shot at making the top four. But that is only if LSU gets plenty of help elsewhere.
The first set of rankings from the College Football Playoff Committee were announced Tuesday night. Three SEC teams were controversially included in the top four, all of which the Tigers have played.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
"#CFBPlayoff Rankings Top 4: 1. Mississippi State 2. Florida State 3. Auburn 4. Ole Miss pic.twitter.com/nmBpfaLM6U
— College GameDay (@CollegeGameDay) October 28, 2014"
LSU was ranked No. 19 by the committee after its upset over Ole Miss.
| Record | 7-2 (3-2) |
| Playoff Committee Poll | No. 19 |
| AP Poll | No. 16 |
| Coaches Poll | No. 17 |
| Sagarin Strength of Schedule | No. 9 |
The high number of one-loss teams hurt the Tigers, but that number will change in the coming weeks. Billy Liucci believes the Tigers should be ahead of Oklahoma in the standings.
"Can someone logically explain to me how 2-loss OU rates ahead of 2-loss LSU?
— Billy Liucci (@billyliucci) October 28, 2014"
"OU lost to #7 TCU, #9 KSU...LSU to #1 MSU, #3 Auburn. OU beat #20 WVU while LSU beat #3 Ole Miss, Wisconsin #SECbias! #kannelling
— Billy Liucci (@billyliucci) October 28, 2014"
Liucci's argument is logical and sound. The Tigers are also the top-ranked two-loss team in the AP Top 25 and Amway Coaches Poll.
Nevertheless, any spot outside of the top four is meaningless. The Tigers must win to have a chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Biggest Obstacles to Playoff Berth
LSU must defeat Alabama on November 8 to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. The Crimson Tide are No. 6 in the inaugural playoff rankings, so they also have work to do if they want to crack the top four.
LSU head coach Les Miles has lost his last three games against Nick Saban's Crimson Tide. The Tigers will have a much-needed bye week to rest up after nine straight weeks of play, so they should be fresh when Alabama arrives in Baton Rouge.
The Crimson Tide's rush defense is best in the SEC, which means LSU's hot offensive line and stable of running backs will be tested. Quarterback Anthony Jennings' struggles as a passer could be magnified against Saban's schemes.
Alabama's offense is balanced, led by Heisman hopeful receiver Amari Cooper. The Tigers defense, which has only allowed 10 points combined in their last two SEC games, must be prepared for offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin's diverse play-calling.
LSU will play Arkansas and Texas A&M after Alabama, both of which will be on the road. The Razorbacks and Aggies are at the bottom of the SEC West standings, but beating them at their place will not be easy.
Help Needed
After LSU's triumph over Ole Miss, there could possibly be a five-way tie in the SEC West at the end of the season between the Tigers, Rebels, Alabama, Mississippi State and Auburn, per The Solid Verbal:
"Verballer Benjamin writes in with this scenario, which would be NUTS: pic.twitter.com/AMlIqWJUQy
— The Solid Verbal (@SolidVerbal) October 26, 2014"
LSU could also make it if the other four teams atop the SEC West collapse. Even if that were to happen, some of the one-loss teams from other conferences, such as TCU, Oregon, Michigan State and Kansas State, would have to fall as well.
The Tigers could raise some eyebrows if they remain unbeaten the rest of the way. There is no official set of criteria for the committee, which makes this a subjective selection process.
The SEC West has proven to be the best division in the country in the minds of the committee, which means two teams from the division could make it. If the Tigers remain hot, they could be the second of two teams from the SEC West to play for it all.
Prediction
LSU fans should never give up hope, as anything can happen in the wild SEC West. But the harsh reality is that the Tigers will fall short of the College Football Playoff.
The Tigers could still finish with a respectable 10 wins, which would mark the fifth straight season Miles has reached a double-digit victory total. That would be a remarkable feat considering the Tigers' slow start.
Sports Illustrated's Zac Ellis projects LSU returning to the Outback Bowl for a heavyweight matchup against Ohio State on New Years Day. Saturday Down South's Brad Crawford sees the Tigers there as well but playing Nebraska. National Football Post's Dave Miller believes the Tigers will play a day later in the TaxSlayer Bowl against Maryland.
Bowl projections are an inexact science. Where LSU goes bowling will hinge heavily on the Alabama game. But whichever way that matchup plays out, the Tigers could still defeat Arkansas and Texas A&M and still make a New Year's Day bowl game.
Stats, rankings and additional information provided by CFBStats.com, ESPN.com and LSU Sports Information. Recruiting information provided by 247Sports.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow me on Twitter @CarterthePower.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
