College Football Teams on Upset Alert in November
November upsets are the worst kind of upsets.
Unlike their early-season counterparts, they are not met with pledges to "get things right" or platitudes like "lot of season left." They are just…well, they're just so 'darn deflating.
Alas, November upsets happen every season, and 2014 will be no different. Ranked teams competing for conference championships will lose to unranked teams they have no business losing to.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
But which teams are most at risk of incurring the dreaded November upset? To answer that, this list looked at myriad factors, ingredients such as overrated favorites, underrated underdogs, home-field advantage, series history, schedule context—you name it.
Sound off below to let us know whom else you would add.
No. 5 Oregon
1 of 6
When: vs. Stanford (Nov. 1)
Oregon opened as a 12.5-point favorite over Stanford this week, but the number has already been bet down to minus-9.5, per Odds Shark.
There is money coming in on the Cardinal.
And it's not hard to figure out why.
Stanford has beaten Oregon the past two seasons, both times in a similar spot to that of this year—i.e., with Oregon on track to win the Pac-12 and contend for a national title. Marcus Mariota has failed to post a raw QBR of 50 in either of those meetings, lowlighted by last year, when Oregon was shut out for the first 49:49 of the game.
Stanford's offense has been a mess this season, but its defense has been just as good as the past two versions, ranking No. 3 in Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings. Its depth along the front seven will test Oregon's offensive line, which has looked better since Jake Fisher returned to the lineup but is still too shaky to be trusted.
Will the Cardinal spring the upset? It's hard to say with conviction. They've looked too stale on offense to feel good about.
But Oregon's defense, which has quietly been getting torched this season, ranks No. 122 in the country with 142 plays of 10-plus yards allowed. And Kevin Hogan has weirdly always had the Ducks' number.
Oregon is the better team.
But the better team doesn't always win the game.
(Especially in this particular series.)
No. 4 Auburn
2 of 6
When: vs. Texas A&M (Nov. 8)
Auburn at Texas A&M is the quintessential trap game, especially if Auburn beats Ole Miss in Week 10. It's what Ty Hildenbrandt of The Solid Verbal podcast would refer to as a "Letdown/Lookahead Sandwich," falling one week after one big game (at Ole Miss) and one week before another big game (at Georgia) on the schedule.
But it's not just one crazy Internet theory that this game satisfies: It also meets the requirements of Bruce Feldman's "Body Blow Theory," which broadly states that teams are more prone to an upset one week after facing an especially physical opponent. (Having to play an angry Landsharks defense in Oxford this weekend will qualify.)
Texas A&M lost 59-0 at Alabama last time it took the field but had a bye to get right last weekend and draws Louisiana-Monroe in Week 10. It will be fresh, prepared and eager to avenge what happened against the Crimson Tide when they travel to the Plains.
By contrast, Auburn will be coming off a loopy 60-minute win over South Carolina and whatever happens at Ole Miss and will be looking ahead to a rematch of last year's "Prayer at Jordan-Hare" game at Georgia.
Despite what happened against Alabama, this Aggies team can still score points. It had one (very, very) bad game, but if South Carolina can hang 35 points on Auburn at Auburn, there is no reason A&M can't outscore the Tigers in a favorable situation.
No. 9 Georgia
3 of 6
When: at Kentucky (Nov. 8)
Kentucky, which just lost 45-31 to No. 1 Mississippi State, is on the verge of pulling an upset, not unlike last year's Tennessee team, which barely lost to Georgia before upsetting South Carolina.
This time, Georgia might be the main course instead of the appetizer.
It's not like the Bulldogs have been infallible, after all. They lost to a now-4-4 South Carolina team—a team Kentucky beat, 45-38, in the first week of October—and struggled to beat Tennessee at home. If not for a Justin Worley injury forcing Nathan Peterman into that game, one could make a case that the Vols would have won.
Kentucky has been a much better team at home than it has been on the road, highlighted by quarterback Patrick Towles, who's completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt and thrown nine touchdowns to one interception in Lexington.
"As always in a loss, we all can do better," Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops said after the Mississippi State game. "We will do better."
If he's right, Mark Richt's team had better watch out.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 21 East Carolina
4 of 6
When: at Cincinnati (Nov. 13)
Are we sure East Carolina is good?
Its three most-impressive games—the ones that vaulted it into the rankings in the first place—were a 10-point loss at South Carolina, a seven-point win at Virginia Tech and a blowout of North Carolina. Not a single one of those teams has a winning record.
In fact, none of the teams ECU has played this year has a winning record. Not even North Carolina Central, the FCS team East Carolina beat in Week 1, has won more games than it has lost in 2014.
Cincinnati isn't a great team, or even a very good team, but it is at least a semi-coherent team, which might be all it takes to upset the Pirates. UConn is one of the worst teams in the non-bottom-feeder conferences and just hung with East Carolina last Thursday.
Are we sure ECU should be ranked ahead of Marshall?
No. 2 Florida State
5 of 6
When: at Miami (Nov. 15)
Miami this year is completely, inexplicably backward.
Ever since Al Golden took the reins in 2011, the Hurricanes have gotten more attention than their mediocre play has warranted. In 2014, they are finally playing well…and nobody seems to have noticed.
After rolling through Virginia Tech, 30-6, in Lane Stadium last Thursday, Miami rose to No. 16 in the Football Outsiders F/+ ratings. For context, the four teams directly behind it are ostensible playoff contenders Kansas State, Arizona State, Notre Dame and Baylor.
The Irish stick out from that list for having almost upset Florida State in Tallahassee a couple of weeks ago. If Miami is playing just as well as Notre Dame, and Notre Dame was almost good enough to beat FSU on the road, can't Miami hang with FSU at home?
The logician in me says it can.
No. 16 LSU
6 of 6
When: at Arkansas (Nov. 15)
Arkansas put up a stinker against Georgia a few weeks back, but that can be attributed, in part, to the "Body Blow" theory discussed earlier.
Teams don't play their best after playing Alabama.
When the Razorbacks host LSU, however, they will be coming right off of a bye week. They will be rested and ready to go. And they'll be playing for revenge against a worse version of the team they know they could have (and think they should have) beaten in 2014.
LSU, for the record, plays Alabama one week before traveling to Fayetteville. It will be the opposite of "rested and ready to go."
"It seems inevitable Arkansas will win an SEC game this season," tweeted Ralph Russo of The Associated Press, admittedly, to explain why he picked the Razorbacks over Georgia. "[I] figure it will be at home. I'm just going to pick them every time at this point."
That, it would seem, makes two of us.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
