Florida State vs. Louisville Complete Game Preview
Florida State has done very well coming off a bye week the past few years, winning four straight games.
Last year, FSU opened the season with a Labor Day win at Pittsburgh 41-13. The Seminoles had 11 days off before routing Nevada 62-7 on Sept. 14.
The Seminoles also won off the second bye in 2013. After a 63-0 rout of Maryland at home on Oct. 5, FSU thrashed Clemson in a Top-Five showdown 51-14 at Death Valley.
This season, FSU easily handled The Citadel 37-12 in Tallahassee on Sept. 6. With two weeks off, and with Sean Maguire starting at quarterback, FSU slipped past Clemson 23-17 in overtime.
The Seminoles haven't spent time since the 31-27 win over Notre Dame resting. FSU has taken a few days off, but there hasn't been much of a break with an ACC showdown at Louisville next on Thursday night. Let's take a look at the matchup:
FSU Keys to Victory
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Consistent Offensive Line Play
FSU had a shaky first half against Notre Dame, but the offensive line settled in and the Seminoles were able to rack up 212 offensive yards and put together touchdown drives in the second half. The line has struggled early in games only to make adjustments, a reflection of the offense scoring 143 of its 265 points after halftime.
The running game has been a problem all season, and part of that is due to the injury of center Austin Barron (arm) and to running backs Karlos Williams (ankle) and Mario Pender (ankle). FSU may not be able to establish a strong running game, but Williams, Pender and Dalvin Cook need to be able to move the chains on third down and help FSU sustain long drives.
Attack Through the Air
FSU won games last year with balance on offense, but the Seminoles are now leaning almost entirely on the passing game. The Seminoles are airing it out more often, and Jameis Winston is averaging 313 passing yards in his six games. FSU is 14th nationally in pass offense but will face perhaps the best pass defense it has seen on Thursday.
Louisville leads the nation in total defense (243 yards per game) and rush defense (66 yards per game). FSU will likely not find much rushing success, so the Seminoles must pass—and pass often—to win on Thursday night.
Frustrate Gardner
FSU has played mostly mobile quarterbacks this year, but the Seminoles get a break when they face Louisville's Will Gardner. He is a dropback passer and not much of a threat to run, so look for FSU to bring pressure with four down linemen but also blitz a linebacker or bring defensive back Jalen Ramsey off the edge.
Louisville's offense is much more dynamic with the return of receiver DeVante Parker, so FSU will need to help out its defensive backs by making sure that Gardner doesn't have as much time to throw the ball.
Louisville Keys to Victory
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Keep FSU Guessing
Louisville has been dependent on the running game with the injury to Parker. That's very surprising for a Bobby Petrino-coached team, but now the Cardinals offense should be more balanced with Parker back.
The Cardinals are at a disadvantage with Will Gardner being a pocket passer. FSU will bring pressure to try to impact Gardner's rhythm in the passing game. Louisville will need to run effectively and move the chains, also keeping FSU's dynamic offense on the sideline.
Get FSU's Offense Off the Field
Louisville's pass defense is 10th in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Cardinals are allowing 177 passing yards per game. Louisville has also been impressive at forcing turnovers, grabbing 15 interceptions in eight games.
But the Cardinals have built a strong defensive resume without playing top-notch offenses. How will Louisville play against FSU? And do the Cardinals have enough talent in the secondary to match up against FSU's depth at receiver?
FSU Players to Watch
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QB Jameis Winston
Winston is 20-0 as a starter and has 10 300-yard games under his belt. But he's also been exceptional on the road the last two seasons.
The 2013 Heisman Trophy winner has surpassed 300 yards in five of six ACC road games (against Pittsburgh, Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina State and Syracuse). He has thrown 20 touchdown passes in those games.
WRs Bobo Wilson/Travis Rudolph
The emergence of both receivers has taken the pressure off Rashad Greene (as well as tight end Nick O'Leary). Now Winston has a variety of options in a passing game that should continue to improve as the year moves on.
Wilson has had four catches in each of the past three games. The sophomore has 25 catches for 307 yards and is tied for Greene with the team lead with four touchdowns.
Rudolph, a true freshman, has caught 16 passes in his last three games. He had a breakout game against Notre Dame, grabbing six passes for 80 yards and a touchdown. Rudolph has 232 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.
CBs P.J. Williams/Ronald Darby
Williams and Darby have played well for the most part. But there have been a few coverage breakdowns that have led to big plays. While most haven't gone for touchdowns, the play of the corners will be under the microscope against Louisville.
The Cardinals return star receiver DeVante Parker, who missed the first seven games with a foot injury. And James Quick is an exceptional No. 2 receiver. Parker and Quick will be able to catch passes, but FSU must limit the yards after catch.
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Louisville Players to Watch
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WR DeVante Parker
Parker missed seven games with a foot injury but returned to play at home against North Carolina State and had nine catches for 132 yards. As a junior in 2013, Parker had 55 receptions for 885 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The 6'3'', 210-pound Parker is one of the tallest and fastest receivers FSU will face in 2014. And his return is a spark to a Louisville passing offense that has sputtered this season, averaging 225 passing yards per game. That's not bad, but that's not the dynamic offense that is expected from a Bobby Petrino team.
WR James Quick
With Parker out, Louisville turned to the sophomore and Quick caught 30 passes for 451 yards and three touchdowns. He has had a pair of 100-yard games this season.
FSU's Jalen Ramsey said he has faced Quick a few times while they were in high school, and Ramsey said the one-on-one battles were intense.
DE Lorenzo Mauldin
The senior defensive end has 35 tackles and he leads the team with 11.5 tackles for loss and six sacks. He will be a difficult assignment for an FSU offensive line that has struggled against elite pass-rushers.
What They're Saying
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FSU coach Jimbo Fisher
On Louisville—"They've got good players. They've recruited well and had a good program. Some of those other programs when they had that year of transition, they might have been in a down swing of recruiting. (Former Louisville coach) Charlie (Strong) and (the staff) recruited well for a long period of time. They've got very good players, and a of course, a very good staff to coach them."
On Louisville's defense—"I think they tackle well. The first thing that jumps out to me is that they tackle well. They get great leverage on the ball and they tackle well. They have done a good job of pressuring the quarterback, mixing things up and mixing coverages. They play the run. Their inside guys are very physical on the run. They are long on the outside and they create a good pass rush with length and get in the passing lanes. They cover well and they create turnovers."
On FSU defensive back Jalen Ramsey—"Getting better and better. Really is starting to learn how to rush the passer in different ways. When he gets blocked, he can dip. Coverage-wise, tackle-wise, he’s really emerging as a really dominant player."
Louisville coach Bobby Petrino
On receiver DeVante Parker's return—"He had a big impact, probably more than I imagined he could. He did a great job running after the catch and getting open, catching the ball in his hands. He was sore after the game, obviously. He hadn't been hit for a long time and been through the things that he did in that game. But we're real encouraged that the next day he felt better than he ever thought he would."
On the offense's goal-line success—"We've been good on first down, down there. We've been able to penetrate and get negative plays and hold people to field goals instead of touchdowns. It's certainly been a big factor in us going 6-2."
On Thursday games—"I've always enjoyed them because you do get a little bit of time to prepare for it. You're able to get a couple of days off where players get to relax and rest. I've always enjoyed playing them because I think the recruits are watching the games on Thursday night because Saturdays, a lot of times they have their own things to do, whether they're playing or watching the video of their Friday night game. So I thought it's been good for the program."
Prediction
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FSU has been on the ropes a few times in the fourth quarter but has been able to pull out a win. This game should be like many of the others—a close game that will go down to the wire.
Louisville is capable of pulling off the upset. The Cardinals have what appears to be an improving passing game with Parker's return. And the ground attack is strong, led by a deep group of running backs.
In the first matchup of Jimbo Fisher and Bobby Petrino as head coaches, expect plenty of offense. This could be one of the best Thursday college games of the season.
FSU hasn't played at Louisville since a 2002 Thursday night game in which FSU lost 26-20 in overtime in a downpour. Look for the Seminoles to escape this time with a win, using a strong passing game from Winston to capture their 24th straight victory.
FSU 35, Louisville 31
Bob Ferrante is the Florida State Lead Writer for Bleacher Report, all quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bob on Twitter. All stats are courtesy of seminoles.com and gocards.com.
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