How the 2014 MLB Postseason Impacted Each Star Free Agent's Stock
Throughout all sports, fans, pundits and executives are all prone to overvaluing the most recent results. This recency bias creates challenges and advantages for many of MLB's top upcoming free agents.
Nearly all the marquee names participated in the 2014 postseason, some lasting far longer than others. The game's two biggest aces about to hit the open market each endured one lackluster start before convincing everyone this winter that they deserve more money than 99 percent of civilians can dream of earning in seven lifetimes.
The prolonged spotlight helped some burly sluggers, but it also did a world of bad for a prominent starter who entered October with a misleading nickname. Overall, making major decisions based on a small sample size is foolish, especially since it then punishes players on losing teams who didn't receive a chance to participate in the stock-altering process.
But it'd be naive to believe all 30 MLB organizations will completely ignore the postseason numbers. After all, the main goal is to win a ring.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 9
Torii Hunter, OF
2014 Postseason Stats: .200/.333/.200 (2-for-10), 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K
Failing to notch any extra-base hits in his brief playoff foray doesn't bode well for Torii Hunter, a 39-year-old whose batting average and on-base percentage have dropped in each of the past two years. At this stage of his career, Hunter isn't worth more than a one-year deal, preferably to serve as a designated hitter.
Stock: Down
Jake Peavy, SP
2014 Postseason Stats: 4 GS, 16 IP, 18 H, 11 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 8 K
After ballooning his value during a resurgence with the San Francisco Giants, Jake Peavy forfeited some of that extra cash with a disastrous postseason. He registered more walks than strikeouts and didn't last past the sixth inning in any of his four shaky starts.
Before calling his agent, general managers will have flashbacks of the fiery right-hander unraveling during the second inning of a potential title-clinching Game 6.
Stock: Down
Sergio Romo, RP
2014 Postseason Stats: 9 G, 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K
Although no longer the closer, Sergio Romo once again pitched lights-out during October. He now sports a 2.11 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 20 strikeouts and two walks through San Francisco's last three playoff berths. Despite a letdown in the regular season, the 31-year-old reliever should attract a fair share of suitors.
Stock: Up
Jon Lester, SP
2 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: 1 GS, 7.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
The Oakland Athletics sacrificed Yoenis Cespedes just to have Jon Lester on hand for the playoffs. After leading the Boston Red Sox to their second title since joining the franchise, the southpaw earned a reputation as a big-game warrior, precisely what the A's needed to snap their playoff funk.
Given the ball for a winner-take-all game, Lester surrendered three runs through seven innings as Oakland assembled a 7-3 lead. Job well done. Mission accomplished. That sturdiness was precisely what Billy Beane ordered with his controversial deadline deal.
One problem: Bob Melvin sent Lester out for the eighth inning. When the gassed 30-year-old faltered, the manager turned to Luke Gregerson and Sean Doolittle, two usually sure-handed hurlers who couldn't lock down the lead.
With that collapse, Lester lost his chance to further expand his October legend by anchoring another champion. What would have happened if he had the opportunity to conquer his new American League West rival in the Los Angeles Angels? Could he have also stifled the Baltimore Orioles' ferocious bats?
Had that play-in game unfolded differently, maybe he's facing off against Madison Bumgarner in the World Series instead of fellow free-agent James Shields. He didn't improve his value, but a misleading stat line should not cost him any cash, as he posted a 2.82 ERA during the 2014 season and still boasts a stellar 2.57 postseason ERA over his superb career.
Stock: Neutral
Hanley Ramirez, SS
3 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: .429/.500/.500 (6-for-14), 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R
Hanley Ramirez did not fortify his market value the way he could have during the season, falling below his career averages with a .283/.369/.448 slash line and 13 home runs. After missing time on the injury shelf yet again, he has played 121 games per season over the past five years.
Throw in some recent inconsistency and concern that the 30-year-old will have to find a new position in the early half of a long-term contract, and there are plenty of justified reasons to steer clear of Ramirez.
He sure could have used a deep playoff stint with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he at least made his presence felt during a first-round upset by the St. Louis Cardinals.
Just like that, Ramirez is suddenly a .356/.453/.578 postseason hitter in a bite-sized 13-game sample size. Any organization should be too smart to reach into such a tiny listing, but ending on a high note can't hurt.
Also working in his favor, few alternative exists after J.J. Hardy signed a team-friendly extension to stick with the Orioles. When the next best options are Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew, the Dodgers may feel more inclined to reach deeper into their pockets for Ramirez. Word on the street is the New York Yankees also had a shortstop retire.
Hardy removing himself from the picture diminishes the supply at shortstop, which bodes well for Ramirez's demand.
Stock: Up
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Victor Martinez, 1B/DH
4 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: .333/.333/.750 (4-for-12), 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R
Regardless of what he did in October, there was going to be a market for Victor Martinez, who procured a .335/.409/.565 slash line and a career-high 32 home runs during the 2014 season. Someone will pay the man, but will it be the Detroit Tigers?
According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, Martinez wants a four-year deal even though he'll turn 36 before the 2015 season.
"The Tigers will extend the qualifying offer to the switch-hitting Martinez, according to people familair with their plans, but he will decline and try to repat [sic] the term he received four years ago from Detroit.
The Tigers are thrilled with Martinez's output over the term of that $52 million, four-year deal, and would love to have him back, but the length of the deal could be a sticking point if he insists on four years.
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Meanwhile, an agent told the Detroit Free Press' Anthony Fenench that he "doesn't think Martinez will be difficult to please in the Tigers' situation" as a contender. Unless someone else tempts him with that fourth year, he'll probably accept that an aging designated hitter should take three highly paid years after a possible outlier season.
Sure, Martinez hit .333 with a home run, but the veteran also struck out in 12 plate appearances during Baltimore's sweep over Detroit. That's an odd stat for the man who posted baseball's lowest strikeout rate during the regular season.
Chalk those shortcomings up to a small sampling, but that same reasoning prevents onlookers from overstating the positive portion of those three games. Nevertheless, he'll come at high demand, but probably at no more than three years.
Stock: Neutral
Max Scherzer, SP
5 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: 1 GS, 7.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Following a Cy Young season, Max Scherzer bet on himself to replicate that success for another year rather than inking an extension with the Tigers. While he won't earn more hardware, his self-efficacy certainly paid off.
Through a career-high 220.1 innings, the 30-year-old notched a 3.15 ERA, and his 20.9 strikeouts minus walks percentage only dipped slightly from 2013's 22.0 percent. That strong season set up Scherzer to collect the offseason's largest contract, but he had a chance to inflate his price tag even more during the postseason.
He didn't deliver, allowing five earned runs during a disastrous American League Division Series for the Tigers. It's only natural for an employer to labor over every subatomic particle before locking down someone for a multi-year contract worth well more than $100 million, so this last impression could leave a sour taste in everyone's mouth.
But such a decision is too important to weigh with one start. Everyone will now look to his past track record in October, but it's not germane to future expectations. While he now holds an unspectacular 3.73 career postseason ERA, most of that damage came in 2011, before Scherzer materialized into an ace.
MLB's league-leading club in home runs sent two balls deep, and that made all the difference. He still recorded six strikeouts to one lone walk, so organizations should treat Scherzer the same way they would have before his playoff start.
Stock: Neutral
Andrew Miller, RP
6 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: 5 G, 7.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Andrew Miller may feel like the name that doesn't belong on this list. In a group featuring top sluggers and aces, the former top prospect does not draw the same desire out of the bullpen.
He rightfully won't sniff a mega-deal akin to baseball's top mercenaries for hire, but someone will recognize the yeomen's work he did once converted into a reliever, a new assignment that made him a pivotal part of the Orioles sweeping the Tigers.
Including the postseason, Miller notched a 0.99 ERA since getting dealt to Baltimore by the Boston Red Sox in July. He quickly became Buck Showalter's most trusted reliever down the stretch, and the 29-year-old rewarded that confidence with five shutdown appearances in October.
Like an umpire, relief pitchers tend to go unnoticed until they do something wrong. The Tigers and Dodgers witnessed firsthand the danger of fighting for a championship with a patchwork bullpen, so one of those big-market clubs may chase down an elite reliever such as Miller for a lucrative deal.
Miller will make the least money of any of these highlighted free agents, but none of them boosted their appeal like the lefty.
Stock: Up
Nelson Cruz, OF/DH
7 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: .357/.400/.607 (10-for-28), 2 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R
Gee, does getting mentioned in the same breath as Babe Ruth help a baseball player's perception?
Nelson Cruz extended his unbelievable postseason resume by hitting his 15th and 16th playoff home runs. The last dinger passed the Bambino on the all-time playoff leaderboard, placing Cruz in a tie for ninth place with Carlos Beltran.
Through 41 postseason games, Cruz slugged .669 with one homer per every 9.6 at-bats. Had he sustained that rate through the regular season, he would have hit 63 instead of his MLB-leading 40.
His past PED suspension now takes a back seat to the narrative of his postseason dominance. Considering he's a 34-year-old who's of little help defensively and played more than 130 games for just the second time of his career, he needed to generate that selling point.
Even though he only hit .250/.333/.313 during the American League Championship Series, Cruz is carrying some positive publicity into the offseason.
Stock: Up
James Shields, SP
8 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: 5 GS, 25 IP, 36 H, 17 ER, 4 HR, 7 BB, 20 K
By proxy of the Royals making their thrilling quest to the World Series, the "Big Game James" myth was debunked before our very eyes.
James Shields never wielded impressive numbers in the playoffs, but the contradiction became illuminated by the grand exposure of a deep playoff run. Through five grueling outings, Shields posted a 6.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP.
Heading into the Fall Classic, his team bailed him out to win his opening three starts, but Madison Bumgarner thoroughly out-pitched Shields in both World Series matchups. Dueling against one of the game's finest aces, the pending free agent did not look the part.
To be fair, 25 innings should not completely erase his full body of work. He solidified a 3.21 ERA through 227 innings this season, walking a career-low 1.74 batters per nine innings. No pitcher has logged more frames than Shields during the past four regular seasons.
That's both a testament to his durability and a warning sign for anyone hoping to wring 932.2 more innings out of him over the next four years. Given the scroll of veteran aces who have flamed out in their 30s, teams might fear that October signified the 32-year-old's upcoming regression.
He saved some face by pitching six solid innings in his final postseason appearance, but the realization that Big Game James brandishes a career 5.46 playoff ERA banishes him outside the area code of Scherzer and Lester.
Stock: Down
Pablo Sandoval, 3B
9 of 9
2014 Playoff Stats: .338/.392/.426 (23-of-68), 6 2B, 5 RBI, 10 R
Like Cruz, Pablo Sandoval spent October updating his reputation as a postseason hero.
He couldn't ignite similar power, but he made up for no home runs with six doubles. As a result, his slugging percentage still exceeds this season's .415 clip.
The Kung Fu Pandu made his biggest impact during the National League Championship Series, going 8-for-20 with three doubles and a pair of walks. With Buster Posey searching for his first extra-base hit heading into Game 7, Sandoval has had to assume the Giants' offensive burden alongside Hunter Pence.
During his third World Series run with the Giants, Sandoval has hit .331/.377/.530, earning World Series MVP honors in 2012 after holstering a 1.125 OPS. The Giants are notorious for keeping their guys around, and another fruitful postseason run will likely only fortify that ideology this offseason.
They have several key players with expiring contracts, but another resounding year from Sandoval will make him San Francisco's top priority.
Stock: Up
Note: All stats obtained from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
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