Oregon Ducks vs. Stanford Cardinal Complete Game Preview

The Oregon Ducks (7-1, 4-1) have blown two consecutive chances for a shot at the national championship. The Stanford Cardinal (5-3, 3-2) stalled both of those chances. The Ducks hope that the third time’s the charm.

In each of the past two seasons, the Ducks came into the Stanford game with an undefeated record and a realistic shot at reaching the BCS Championship Game. In 2012, while sitting at 10-0, The Associated Press ranked Oregon No. 1 heading into the matchup against Stanford. In 2013, with an 8-0 record, the Ducks were ranked No. 2 in the country before the Stanford game.

Now, with the College Football Playoff in tow, the Ducks have yet another realistic chance of playing for a national title. Once again, the Cardinal stand in their way.

Can the Ducks finally overcome their demons and slay Stanford? That is the only question that matters this week. Yes, the Ducks have three more games after this week, including a terrifying road trip to Utah. However, Stanford is the game that every Ducks fan had circled at the beginning of the year. This one means just a little bit more than any other game on the Oregon schedule this season.

While this game has Pac-12 North implications—the Ducks hold a one-game lead over the Cardinal—the rivalry takes precedent and is the real storyline.

Stanford is to the Ducks what the 2004 New York Yankees were to the 2004 Boston Red Sox. In order to become champions, the Ducks must first take down the team that has stood in their way for the past two seasons.

Here's what you need to know:

Date: Saturday, Nov. 1

Time: 4:30 p.m. Pacific Time

Place: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)

TV: Fox

Spread: Oregon -9.5, according to OddsShark.com.

Oregon Keys to Victory

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Ducks on the Run

Oregon’s breakneck offense is predicated on the ability to rush the ball with ease on any given down from anywhere on the field. One of the reasons the Ducks offense has struggled against Stanford over the past two seasons is because they’ve been able to establish a strong rushing attack.

In 2012, Oregon rushed for 198 yards against the Cardinal. However, 77 of those yards came on one play by Marcus Mariota. Take out that run, and the Ducks rushed for 121 yards on 39 carries—an average of 3.1 yards per carry. In 2013, the Ducks rushed for 62 yards on 24 carries—an average of 2.6 yards per carry.

Needless to say, Oregon’s incredible rushing attack—ranked No. 2 in the country in 2012 and No. 11 in 2013—has been halted by Stanford’s overpowering defense.

If the Ducks are to beat Stanford—currently ranked No. 5 in the country against the rush—they are going to need to be able to run the ball.

But how are they going to run the ball? The answer is true freshman Royce Freeman. We’ll talk more about him in a little bit.

Sell out to Stop the Run

Stanford has destroyed Oregon’s defense on the ground over the past two seasons. In order to finally beat the Cardinal, the Ducks are going to have to first stop the run and then worry about quarterback Kevin Hogan and the wide receivers.

In 2012, the Cardinal rushed for 200 yards on 46 carries against the Ducks. In 2013, they rushed for 274 yards on 66 carries. That’s right. Stanford carried the rock 66 times against Oregon and kept the ball for 42 minutes of play. While Oregon clearly doesn’t care about time of possession—they’re ranked No. 121 in the country this season—it’s tough to win when you only have the ball for less than 18 minutes of the game.

The Ducks are going to need to stack the box and take some chances. If Stanford takes control of the line of scrimmage and plays keep away from the Ducks offense, history will repeat itself and the Ducks shot at a national title will go out the window.

Stanford Keys to Victory

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Win the Turnover Battle 

Stanford is ranked No. 115 in the country in turnover margin this season. So far, the Cardinal have taken the ball away eight times. However, the offense has committed 16 turnovers—10 fumbles, six interceptions. How they are 5-3 with that turnover ratio is simply amazing.

Conversely, Oregon is ranked No. 5 in the country in turnover margin. The Ducks defense has managed to force 16 turnovers, and the offense has only lost the ball five times—four fumbles and an interception.

In 2012, Stanford managed to overcome turning the ball over three times and losing the turnover battle by two. However, in 2013 the Cardinal forced Oregon to turn the ball over twice, and the offense didn’t turn the ball over at all.

Oregon has yet to lose the turnover battle in any game so far this season. If Stanford is able to accomplish that task, they’ll likely be sitting on top of the Pac-12 North standings by the end of the night.

Gash the Ducks Defense

While Stanford’s offense is ranked No. 80 in the country and is averaging only 382.2 yards per game, they’re facing a Ducks defense that has been repeatedly gashed by opposing offenses all season long.

The goal for Stanford should be to keep Oregon’s defense on the field as much as possible while converting long, methodical drives into touchdowns. They’ve accomplished that task in each of the past two seasons. While they’re not as talented offensively as they have been in years past, Stanford has the ability to execute this game plan once again.

Oregon’s defense is ranked No. 106 in the country and is allowing an average of 462.4 yards per game. The Ducks have also allowed more than 30 points in four of their five conference games this season.

If Stanford succeeds offensively, they should be able to give the Ducks a run for their money and score an upset for the third consecutive year.

Oregon Players to Watch

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Royce Freeman

It seems like every week we’re talking about Royce Freeman. The true freshman running back has deserved it though. He’s been fantastic.

Freeman had his third consecutive 100-yard performance against California last week and has now rushed for 748 yards and 13 touchdowns so far this season. Freeman’s 748 yards is good for No. 27 in the country, and his 13 touchdowns rank No. 6 in the nation.

Additionally, Freeman set the rushing record for an Oregon freshman against Cal, according to Oregon’s assistant athletic director Andy McNamara.

Freeman’s ability to fight for yards after being touched will serve the Ducks well against a Stanford team that is ranked No. 5 in the country in rushing defense and is allowing a paltry 90.6 rushing yards per game.

Arik Armstead

Armstead, who is Oregon’s biggest defensive lineman at 6’7” and 280 pounds, has missed two of the past three games after suffering an undisclosed injury against Arizona.

The Ducks defense badly needs Armstead to be healthy and ready to go by Saturday. In order to combat Stanford’s powerful offensive line, the Ducks are going to have to get some push and attempt to neutralize Stanford at the line of scrimmage.

Oregon is going to sell out against the run and allow the secondary, specifically Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, to cover Ty Montgomery and company.

If Armstead is in the game and playing well, the Ducks defense will have a much better chance at stopping the run and forcing quarterback Kevin Hogan to beat the Ducks with his arm.

Stanford Players to Watch

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Remound Wright/Barry Sanders Jr. 

Stanford has dominated the Ducks on the ground over the past two seasons with Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney, both of whom ran for more than 150 yards against the Ducks.

The Cardinal will once again look to toil the rock effectively against a Ducks defense that is ranked No. 76 in the country and is allowing 171.9 yards per game on the ground this season.

Wright and Sanders have combined to rush the ball for 626 yards this season on 109 carries—an average of 5.74 yards per carry. While the two backs have combined for just two touchdowns on the ground—both by Wright—they have run the ball effectively when given the chance.

Look for both Wright and Sanders to both play a significant role in the offense this week as the Cardinal once again try to play the keep-away game.

A.J. Tarpley

While A.J. Tarpley may not be Stanford’s best defender, there’s little doubt that the senior is the heart and soul of a unit that is only allowing 12.5 points per game—ranked No. 2 in the country.

On the season, Tarpley has 53 tackles, four tackles for loss, two sacks and an interception. Needless to say, he’s played very well. However, Tarpley’s impact is felt throughout the defense, and his name will be mentioned quite a bit come Saturday.

What They're Saying

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Samuel Chi of Bleacher Report has the Ducks in the College Football Playoff in his latest mock College Football Playoff standings. 

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The Ducks have had their mulligan but probably won't get a second one. Plenty of work still lies ahead, including next week's game against Stanford, which denied Oregon the Pac-12 North title the past two seasons. But the strength of the Pac-12 will work in the Ducks' favor and put them in the playoff if they manage to win the conference.

Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

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Andrew Greif of The Oregonian believes the Ducks will win a close one.

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Threat level (1-5 scale): 5. Oregon's nemesis again boasts an elite defense, one that's good enough to make up for its 88th-ranked scoring offense.

Early prediction: Oregon 38, Stanford 31

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Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich says his guys are solely focused on having a great week of preparation for whoever the next opponent is, according to Ryan Thorburn of The Register-Guard.

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“It’s like I said in the offseason, we lose to Stanford and we have to blow up our program. They lose to somebody else, and it’s just an anomaly,” Helfrich said of the outside criticism. “Expectations or where we’ve been, that’s the talk. ... But our guys have to be wholly focused on having great preparation for who’s next. I’m certain the competitors among them, which are all of them, are excited to talk about those things or excited to have been in those situations."

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When asked about his early final-four bracket for the College Football Playoff, Helfrich quipped that the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants would be in his playoff because they're still playing, according to Thorburn.

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“The San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals would be in my top four because they’re still playing. It’s too early. It’s awesome for college football. It’s great for (the media) that need to kill air time or column inches. Do they still talk in column inches or is it just characters?"

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Prediction

Dean Hare/Associated Press

Oregon versus Stanford has become one of the most bitter and nasty rivalries in the country. It’s flash versus smash. It’s future versus tradition. Quite simply, it’s a rivalry that has sprung out of almost nowhere and now has national implications annually.  

This is the year that the Ducks finally take the Pac-12 North crown back from Stanford. They will do it on the back of Marcus Mariota, as always, and will benefit from having a running back in Royce Freeman who is not afraid to run between the tackles.

Oregon’s offense is going to stall out at times. It’s nearly impossible to score continuously against Stanford’s top-notch defense. This game will be decided by Oregon’s defense and their ability to slow down a Stanford rushing attack that has eaten them alive the past two seasons.

The Ducks defense isn’t great or even good. However, they will step up against Stanford and get just enough stops to grab an enormous victory.

Oregon 31, Stanford 24

Statistics courtesy of NCAA.com unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.