World Series 2014: Latest Predictions for Giants vs. Royals Before Game 6

Up 3-2, the San Francisco Giants can seal the deal on the 2014 World Series with one more victory.

The Giants and Kansas City Royals have traded triumphs during a wild Fall Classic, but San Francisco took the upper hand on Sunday night, securing Game 5 behind another gem from Madison Bumgarner.

How will the two managers respond after traveling back to Missouri to play out the remainder of the series under American League rules? Can the Royals rally to end a 29-year championship drought, or will the Giants ruin the Cinderella tale with their third championship in five years?

This showdown could become the second World Series to go the full seven games in 11 years, but only if Game 6 cooperates. Let's take a look at Tuesday's possible elimination clash at Kauffman Stadium.

Game	Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV
6	Tuesday, 10/28	San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals	8 p.m.	Fox
7*	Wednesday, 10/29	San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals	8 p.m.	Fox

Game 6 Preview

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Heading into a pivotal Game 6, how much can Bruce Bochy trust Jake Peavy?

The midseason addition continued his shaky postseason during Game 2 of the Fall Classic, relinquishing four earned runs through five innings. During three playoff starts, he has now amassed six strikeouts and eight walks over 14.2 innings.

Those poor rates should horrify Bochy and have him considering his alternatives, even though he already confirmed to Bleacher Report's Scott Miller that his two veterans will take their scheduled turns.

The brilliant Yusmeiro Petit, who once again saved Ryan Vogelsong's behind in a game he should have started in the first place, threw three shutout innings on Saturday night. Since he did so on an economical 33 pitches, Bochy might turn his way again if Peavy stumbles.

If not, he should put some serious thought into utilizing Tim Hudson and saving Petit to start a potential Game 7. As crazy as it sounds, Petit hasn't allowed a run in October, and no San Francisco starter surpassed his 2.78 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) during the season.

Hunter Pence praised his underappreciated teammate, per MLB's Twitter page.

After Bumgarner, Petit is the best starter on the Giants roster. Whether as a starter or in a high-leverage situation out of the bullpen, the Giants will likely need to look his way again during the final game or two. 

With the series returning to Kansas City, it will be interesting to see how Ned Yost configures his lineup. National League rules cost Billy Butler his starting job as the designated hitter, so he'll return to the mix on Tuesday night.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

But the new atmosphere coaxed Yost into some more changes after fielding an identical lineup through the first 10 playoff bouts. After starting Nori Aoki at right field throughout the series, he ordered a defensive upgrade in Jarrod Dyson, who played center while fellow outfield wizard Lorenzo Cain shifted to right.

Armed with a .349 on-base percentage, Aoki fended off Dyson for offensive purposes. Failing to record an extra-base hit, however, gave Yost a reason to embrace Dyson's superiority on the field and basepaths.

Despite his limitations in the batter's box, Dyson delivered more value than his colleague during the 2014 season.

Player	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	DRS	UZR	WAR
Dyson	290	.269/.324/.327	85	14	18.0	3.1
Aoki	549	.285/.349/.360	104	-8	5.9	1.1

Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) mitigates ballpark factors to measure a hitter's overall offensive value on a 100 scale. Aoki performed as an above-average hitter, while Dyson provided below-average production due to his nonexistent power.

Yet Dyson more than made up for that blemish on the field, tallying 14 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with a stellar Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). All in all, FanGraphs appraises Dyson as producing two more wins than his counterpart.

Yost should have turned back to Aoki against lefty Madison Bumgarner, but their splits against right-handers are virtually identical, making the decision easy to stay with Dyson against the right-handed Peavy.

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
Dyson	233	.274	.326	.337	88
Aoki	409	.259	.323	.335	88

That swap then led him to bat Alex Gordon, who led the team in on-base percentage and slugging percentage during the season, up the batting order from No. 6 to No. 2. Grantland's Jonah Keri called for batting order adjustments before Game 3, although Yost has yet to heed his plea to yank Alcides Escobar from the leadoff role. 

"

So the Royals stuck with that configuration, doubling down by dropping Alex Gordon, the team’s best hitter, to the sixth spot because he’d gone through a mild slump. And that’s the lineup Yost has stuck with ever since.

From a distance, it looks like it’s continued to “work”; the Royals are, after all, three wins away from a World Series title. Upon closer consideration, though, this is the “After the sixth, my thinking is done” mentality applied to the batting order. It’s an overly simplistic approach, and it’s assigning causation to something that’s far more related to correlation. A few underachieving hitters happened to hike their numbers after the lineup switch. So on the basis of that coincidence, achieved in a small sample of games, the banjo-hitting Escobar is batting five spots higher than the productive Gordon, and thus seeing more at-bats than Gordon … in the World Series.

"

For all the flak he has faced, Yost made two positive alternations going into the weekend. Let's hope he doesn't revert back to his previous suboptimal lineup.

As seen in Game 4, Kansas City's bullpen advantage disappears when the starter can't bridge a lead to Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland. If Yordano Ventura once again hurls five or six solid innings, the Royals will send the series to a winner-take-all Game 7.

Prediction: Royals 6, Giants 4

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.