College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Predictions for Week 10
With literally no precedent for a selection committee that will ultimately be awarding four teams the chance to play in a postseason playoff at the end of the year, trying to figure out how the group of folks assigned that very role will break down its first-ever rankings is a bit tricky.
Still, speculating is the fun part, and coming into the first rankings, we have a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen. Or what could happen. Or what might happen. Or...well, you get the point.
Let's break down my predictions for the Top Four teams in the country.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The No-Brainers: Mississippi State and Florida State
Mississippi State has answered every question sent its way thus far. On the road against LSU? Check. A tough matchup two weeks later against Texas A&M? Check. Somehow following that up with another huge win over Auburn? Check. Avoiding the inevitable surprise upset that plagues so many top teams by beating a tough Kentucky team on the road?
Check.
Things will get real in mid-November, however, as the Bulldogs travel to Alabama on November 15 and then go on the road to Ole Miss on November 29. Win those two games and it shouldn't matter what happens in the SEC title game, as Mississippi State will have locked up a spot in the playoff. But there's a lot of football to be played yet.
And then there's Florida State, it of the 23 straight victories. Thursday night's game against Louisville will be no easy task, but the path to the playoff looks pretty clear for the Seminoles. They've answered every question presented to them thus far this year, with victories over Oklahoma State, Clemson and Notre Dame.
The committee might look at them and question just how good they are, but it's hard to see it putting them anywhere lower than No. 2. Wins are wins are wins, and Florida State continues to find ways to get them.
The Second Tier: Alabama, Auburn, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ole Miss and Michigan State
This is where things get interesting.
Despite losing to LSU, will Ole Miss be ranked lower than Alabama, a team it beat? Will Oregon be ranked lower than Michigan State, a team it beat? Where exactly does Auburn fit into this picture?
Personally, I don't believe Ole Miss should be punished for losing after Alabama and Auburn lost. And I especially don't think it should be dinged for losing by three points at LSU, a very good team despite its two losses.
"This league is brutal," Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze said after the game, via It's difficult. Each Saturday it's hard to win football games particularly when you may not play your best and you suffer some injuries that you're not used to having. That's the first time that's happened to us this year."
Still, it's hard to ignore that Auburn not only smoked LSU, 41-7, but it also beat Kansas State on the road, 20-14. Plus, Auburn's only loss was on the road against Mississippi State, the team likely to be No. 1 when the selection committee releases its first rankings. To me, that resume leaves Auburn as the deserving No. 3.
So, who is No. 4?
I don't think Ole Miss will drop far in the eyes of the selection committee. Its best win (beating Alabama) is better than any win Notre Dame, Alabama, Oregon or Michigan State can boast, though Oregon's win over Michigan State was impressive and the Ducks are really cooking with fire now that the offensive line is starting to get healthy, led by Jake Fisher.
Still, add in a road victory over Texas A&M, and Ole Miss' resume is strong. Strong than Oregon's, in my opinion, so I'm sticking with the Rebels at No. 4. Not everybody is as optimistic about Ole Miss remaining in the Top Four, however, like Pete Prisco of CBS Sports:
Yes, the past in college football rankings has left us all a little jaded. Maybe the selection committee will make things right.
Here's the question the committee will have to ask: If two teams didn't already play, who would you take in a neutral environment?
I would take Alabama over Notre Dame and Oregon, so it's my No. 5, with Oregon coming in at No. 6, Notre Dame at No. 7 (yes, the Irish nearly beat Florida State on the road, but no, they don't really have a signature win) and Michigan State coming in at No. 8. We'll see if the committee agrees.
The Best of the Rest: Georgia, TCU, Kansas State, Ohio State, Baylor, Arizona State, Arizona, Nebraska
Georgia and TCU are the really intriguing teams here. Georgia's win over Clemson was impressive, though its loss against South Carolina really hurts the team. TCU's loss was better, as the team put 58 on Baylor and still couldn't come away with the win on the road, and it has wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Still, the game against Kansas State will likely decide which of those teams has a shot at the playoff.
Most of these teams have an outside shot of making the playoff and need to win out and hope for help, one would guess. Still, there is likely to be a conference champion or two out of this bunch, so don't sleep on these teams, either.
Prediction
Mississippi State and Florida State are the top two teams in the country at the moment, and they deserve to be sitting atop the rankings. It's hard to see the selection committee disagreeing with that.
Auburn not only has impressive wins, but its only loss was on the road against the top team in the country. And Ole Miss has knocked off Alabama and Texas A&M and nearly beat LSU on the road.
Those are the teams I believe will be the Top Four in the first set of rankings released by the selection committee, with Alabama and Oregon nipping at their heels. It will be fascinating to see how the committee views the college football landscape.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
