Chaos Reigns in College Football; Good Luck, Playoff Committee
It has sat idle, waiting for the appropriate time to surface. The College Football Playoff, after plenty of debate, dissection and discussion is suddenly at our doorstep.
On Tuesday, a room of 12 human beings who have been deemed selection committee-worthy will sift through the carnage to reveal their first Top 25 ranking to the world. Only the top four matter when it comes to the playoff, although this group will also influence marquee bowl games. Plus, at this moment in time, teams well beyond the top four are still integral to the process.
Given everything that’s transpired already this season—and the madness that is certain to follow in the coming weeks—this is not a position to envy. And it never was. The College Football Playoff committee already had an impossible task. Considering the results of Week 9 and quirks of this particular CFB chapter, however, the intensity has amplified. The predictable outrage to come, as a result, will be boisterous and unruly.
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With the weeks on the schedule hitting double digits and the committee preparing for its debut, there are certain items of note of as you prep for a new age in college football. Let the real madness begin.
What to Do with Ole Miss and Others Like It
Following its 10-7 loss to LSU in Week 9, Ole Miss presents a fascinating early predicament for the selection committee. The Rebels, even with a blemish in the loss column, won’t stray too far from the top of the rankings. There’s no shame in losing a game in Death Valley at night, even when this Tigers team isn't as dominant as usual.
The big question surrounding Ole Miss is quite simple: Will Hugh Freeze’s team be ranked above or below Alabama, a team it beat with a tremendous second half a few short weeks ago?
Both teams have one loss, although the head-to-head matchup should serve as a rather convincing tiebreaker, especially given our still limited sample size. But timing, as it was with the BCS, can often be a critical part of this equation, which is why the Crimson Tide could very well be ranked above the Rebels. In fact, don't be shocked if/when it happens.
This is not just an Ole Miss problem. The same could be said about plenty of other teams, and the issue will only become more glaring as the matchups mount. As we try to understand how the committee works, however, we’ll have a very early look into what exactly they’re seeking—the best team or the most deserving—based on where it ranks two quality playoff contenders that have already played.
Where Did We Come From? And How Will This Factor?
With computers and formulas out of the equation, it has been assumed preseason polls no longer matter. We’re about to find out if this is indeed the case.
How much have things changed in nine weeks? Here’s what the AP Top 10 looked like before the season began and what it looked like before Saturday's results. You will notice some familiar faces still very much in the mix and teams that have long departed.
| Preseason Ranking | Week 9 Ranking |
| 1. Florida State | 1. Mississippi State (Won) |
| 2. Alabama | 2. Florida State (Bye) |
| 3. Oregon | 3. Ole Miss (Lost) |
| 4. Oklahoma | 4. Alabama (Won) |
| 5. Ohio State | 5. Auburn (Won) |
| 6. Auburn | 6. Oregon (Won) |
| 7. UCLA | 7. Notre Dame (Bye) |
| 8. Michigan State | 8. Michigan State (Won) |
| 9. South Carolina | 9. Georgia (Bye) |
| 10. Baylor | 10. TCU (Won) |
For Mississippi State, which struggled (at times) with Kentucky in Week 9 before winning 45-31, being ranked outside of the Top 25 was no issue. It beat quality opponents in LSU and Auburn while operating in the nation’s best conference, which was enough to put it on the map and then some.
For a team like Arizona, however, that might not be the case. The Wildcats destroyed Washington State on the road on Saturday, continuing a rather impressive and unexpected regular-season campaign. Having started the season outside the Top 25, Arizona is the lone team to beat Oregon—on the road and off a bye, no less—and lost to USC by just two points.
The same could be said about TCU. The Horned Frogs, having dropped a cool 82 points on Texas Tech this week, were 11 minutes away from an unbeaten record. Baylor had other plans.
While you can't simply ignore TCU’s meltdown against the Bears or Arizona's loss, one has to wonder if expectations before the season began will seep into the selection process with the committee? Stay tuned.
The Jake Fisher and J.T. Barrett Effect
The biggest question facing the selection committee—beyond all strength-of-schedule debates and analytical assessments—is how it plans to deal with injuries, absences and rapid player development.
Since Jake Fisher returned to Oregon’s offensive line three weeks ago, it has been a different team. This was evident in the Ducks’ 59-41 win over Cal on Friday night, along with wins over UCLA and Washington after Oregon’s only loss against Arizona.
Had Fisher played against the Wildcats, the result could have (and likely would have) been much different. We almost had a similar situation—albeit under very different circumstances—with Florida State and Jameis Winston when he was suspended for the Clemson game. Unlike Oregon, however, the Seminoles squeaked by unbeaten.
How will such losses and near losses be viewed? And will the committee give Oregon an added boost now that it is at full strength?
Ohio State’s sudden playoff life could undergo a much different assessment. At the time of the Buckeyes’ loss to Virginia Tech, quarterback J.T. Barrett was unseasoned and remarkably raw. Although he’s by no means a finished product—as we saw at times in Ohio State’s double-overtime win over Penn State in Week 9—he also flashed moments of brilliance, much like he has done over the past month.
As Virginia Tech—the lone team to beat OSU—continues to crumble, the Buckeyes continue to move up in the ranks thanks in large part to their emerging quarterback. Assessing what feels like ancient history will be another tall order for the committee when it comes to Ohio State and other extreme makeovers.
This Is Just the Beginning
When the selection committee unveils its initial Top 25 in a few short days, it will do so knowing, thankfully, it still has so much left to learn. Weaknesses will be exposed, teams will develop—some more rapidly than others—and marquee matchups still on the docket will make the committee's task of narrowing an enormous batch of teams down to just four much easier.
After nine weeks of chaos, there is still plenty brewing on the horizon. Here are the games that will likely have a direct impact on how the committee reacts, although as we’ve seen, it should by no means be limited to just a handful.
Chaos works in mysterious ways.
Auburn at Ole Miss (November 1): There is no time to time to sulk; Ole Miss has the opportunity to boost its playoff resume next week, while Auburn hopes to stay the course.
Stanford at Oregon (November 1): You know the history well. Stanford has the opportunity to once again derail the Ducks’ playoff hopes next weekend.
Ohio State at Michigan State (November 8): The winner will be in the driver’s seat for a Big Ten Championship and will have a relatively clear path to finish out the season with one loss.
Mississippi State at Alabama (November 15): Depending on what happens with Florida State, the winner of this game could vault to the nation’s No. 1.
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (November 29): The Rebels, even with a loss, are very much in the College Football Playoff conversation. The Egg Bowl, depending on how things play out, could serve as an early elimination game.
Auburn at Alabama (November 29): The Iron Bowl’s importance requires no further justifying. Both teams still have significant matchups before the bitter rivals meet, although this matchup at the back end of the schedule looms.
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