NCAA Football Rankings 2014: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 9

Week 9 of the college football season was highlighted by LSU's 10-7 upset over Ole Miss but otherwise pretty sedate.

Ole Miss and USC were the only two teams in the Top 25 to lose, and USC, like Ole Miss, lost to a team, Utah, that was also ranked in the poll. We entered the week guaranteed to see at least two ranked teams go down, and that's exactly how many we saw.  

The effect such a chalky week will have on the Associated Press poll is likely to be minimal. Near-upsets such as Penn State-Ohio State will inform the rankings and might lead to subtle deviations, but for the most part, things should look close to the same.

Here is one man's (always ill-fated) projection: 

Team	Record	Previous	Week 9 Result
1. Mississippi State	7-0	1	def. Kentucky, 45-31
2. Florida State	7-0	2	BYE
3. Alabama	6-1	4	def. Tennessee, 34-20
4. Auburn	6-1	5	def. South Carolina, 42-35
5. Oregon	7-1	6	def. California, 59-41
6. Notre Dame	6-1	6	BYE
7. Ole Miss	7-1	3	lost to LSU, 10-7
8. Michigan State	7-1	8	def. Michigan, 35-11
9. Georgia	6-1	9	BYE
10. TCU	6-1	10	def. Texas Tech, 82-27
11. Kansas State	6-1	11	def. Texas, 23-0
12. Baylor	6-1	12	BYE
13. Arizona State	6-1	14	def. Washington, 24-10
14. Ohio State	6-1	13	def. Penn State, 31-24
15. Arizona	6-1	15	def. Washington State, 59-37
16. Nebraska	7-1	16	def. Rutgers, 42-24
17. Utah	7-2	19	def. USC, 24-21
18. LSU	7-2	24	def. Ole Miss, 10-7
19. Oklahoma	5-2	17	BYE
20. West Virginia	6-2	22	def. Oklahoma State, 34-10
21. East Carolina	6-1	18	def. UConn, 31-21
22. Clemson	6-2	21	def. Syracuse, 16-6
23. Marshall	8-0	23	def. Florida Atlantic, 35-16
24. Duke	6-1	NR	BYE
25. UCLA	6-2	25	def. Colorado, 40-37

 Note: Rankings reflect a prediction of the Week 9 AP poll—not how the author would rank the teams himself.  

Teams Rising

LSU

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

LSU got revenge on the state of Mississippi, ending Ole Miss' undefeated season roughly a month after getting drilled by Mississippi State.

The formula by which Les Miles' team pulled the upset was a return to the SEC of yore: defense, running the ball and more defense. Never was that more true than on LSU's game-winning touchdown drive, a 13-play masterpiece that included 12 runs to just the one pass (which, of course, was how LSU scored its touchdown).

Anthony Jennings threw a pair of interceptions, and Leonard Fournette fumbled on the goal line, but the offense was propped up by an offensive line that finally performed as well as it was billed in the preseason. The ballyhooed Landsharks defense didn't just not intimidate the Tigers; it actively emboldened them to improve.

LSU might not be dead just yet.

Utah

Travis Wilson led Utah to a comeback win over USC, throwing the game-winning touchdown pass to Kaelin Clay with eight seconds left to play.

The Utes are now 6-1 with wins over legacy programs such as Michigan, UCLA and USC. If not for a loss to Washington State, we would be talking about them as a legit playoff contender.

If they win out, that might still be what they are.

Unfortunately, winning out will be highly improbable given who the Utes still have to play. Their next four games are at Arizona State, vs. Oregon, at Stanford and vs. Arizona. (Good luck with that.)

But at least for one night, Utah can sleep easy and feel like it's on top of the world. It has qualified for a bowl game for the first time since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Even if it loses the rest of its games from here, it has earned its way into the postseason from a power conference.

Good on you, Kyle Whittingham.

Teams Falling

Ole Miss

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Ole Miss lost a close game that easily could have been a not-so-close game at LSU, falling 10-7 despite four LSU turnovers (including one goal-line fumble) and a missed field goal from 28 yards out.

Quarterback Bo Wallace had been unusually mistake-free the previous few weeks but made one of the most curious decisions you'll ever see on the last possession of the game, heaving an interception into double coverage instead of playing it safe so Ole Miss could kick a field goal that might have sent the game to overtime.

"I thought we were pretty clear we would take that flat throw or throw it out of bounds," said Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze, per TJ Werre of of WJTV in Jackson, Mississippi. "[I] wish I could do it over."

USC

Poor, USC.

The Trojans have lost two Pac-12 games this season: one on a Hail Mary against Arizona State and now one on what might as well have been a Hail Mary against Utah. If Steve Sarkisian's team knew how to close games, it would be right in the thick of the playoff discussion. Instead, it is dropping out of the poll.

"This USC team is basically just every Sark team ever, yes?" asked Luke Zimmerman of SB Nation. The answer? A resounding and distressing "uh-huh." Seven-Win Steve has made his way to Hollywood.

It's the most depressing script that city has ever seen.