Breeders' Cup 2014: Odds and Predictions for All Races
The Breeders' Cup is basically the All-Star Game of thoroughbred horse racing in the United States. Top horses from around the globe are set to converge on Santa Anita Park for the 2014 edition to create two days of star-studded fields chasing big purses.
Four championship races are held Friday, followed by nine more Saturday. The event is capped off by the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, which will be highlighted this year by three-year-old sensations Shared Belief and California Chrome.
The post-position draw will be held Monday afternoon. Television coverage for the races will be available on NBC Sports Network throughout Friday and Saturday until it's time for the Classic, which will be shown on NBC. Live streaming coverage is available through NBC Sports Live Extra.
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Let's check out the pre-entries and odds for every race, courtesy of Daily Racing Form. Also included is an early prediction for each Breeders' Cup contest. Some horses qualified for multiple races and are thus listed a few times until decisions are made official.
Juvenile Turf
| 1 | Hootenanny | 9-2 |
| 2 | War Envoy | 5-1 |
| 3 | Aktabantay | 6-1 |
| T-4 | Imperia | 8-1 |
| T-4 | Luck of the Kitten | 8-1 |
| T-4 | The Great War | 8-1 |
| T-7 | Conquest Typhoon | 10-1 |
| T-7 | Commemorative | 10-1 |
| T-9 | International Star | 12-1 |
| T-9 | Startup Nation | 12-1 |
| T-11 | Lawn Ranger | 15-1 |
| T-11 | Danny Boy | 15-1 |
| T-13 | Wet Sail | 20-1 |
| T-13 | Offering Plan | 20-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Daddy D T | 15-1 |
| AE | Faithful Creek | 12-1 |
| AE | Papacoolpapacool | 30-1 |
| AE | Ernest Shakleton | 20-1 |
| AE | Miltee | 30-1 |
This is a perfect race to kick off the Breeders' Cup. It showcases the parity that should be on display throughout the event. Hootenanny is the pre-draw favorite but only by a slim margin, with seven different horses at 10-1 or better.
Imperia is an intriguing colt who improved his time over a mile-and-a-quarter by more than four seconds across his first two starts. If he's unable to take another step forward, Hootenanny and Aktabantay, who should rebound from a frustrating start last time out, are the best choices.
Prediction: Imperia
Dirt Mile
| 1 | Goldencents | 8-5 |
| 2 | Fed Biz | 5-2 |
| 3 | Pants On Fire | 6-1 |
| 4 | Tapiture | 8-1 |
| T-5 | Vicar's in Trouble | 12-1 |
| T-5 | Carve | 12-1 |
| T-7 | Bronzo | 20-1 |
| T-7 | Golden Ticket | 20-1 |
| T-7 | Capo Bastone | 20-1 |
| T-7 | Bourbon Courage | 20-1 |
| T-11 | Big Bane Theory | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Handsome Mike | 30-1 |
Goldencents and Fed Biz are developing quite a rivalry. They have faced off at each of the past two Pat O'Brien Handicaps as well as this same race last year. They split the two handicaps, and Goldencents is the defending champion here.
If there's a horse capable of stealing the spotlight, it's probably Vicar's in Trouble. He has a win and a second in a pair of Grade 2 races over the past couple of months. If he can jump out in front of a moderately paced race, he can pull off the upset.
Prediction: Goldencents
Juvenile Fillies Turf
| 1 | Sunset Glow | 7-2 |
| T-2 | Osaila | 4-1 |
| T-2 | Qualify | 4-1 |
| T-4 | Lady Eli | 8-1 |
| T-4 | Conquest Harlanate | 8-1 |
| 6 | Isabella Sings | 10-1 |
| T-7 | Sivoliere | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Tammy the Torpedo | 15-1 |
| T-9 | Partisan Politics | 20-1 |
| T-9 | She's Complete | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Rainha Da Bateria | 20-1 |
| T-12 | Quality Rocks | 30-1 |
| T-12 | Lady Zuzu | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Prize Exhibit | 15-1 |
| AE | Nicky's Brown Miss | 30-1 |
| AE | Flying Tipat | 30-1 |
| AE | War Alert | 30-1 |
| AE | Unbridled Sonya | 30-1 |
This is an interesting group of horses in large part because the top contenders have not been consistent. Sunset Glow is the most promising of the group, having bounced back from a so-so showing in the Albany Stakes to win her next two starts.
Qualify is dangerous when in top form but hasn't been able to maintain it. The same can be said for Osaila, who has three wins and two fifths in her last five starts. Those uncertainties open the door for a horse slightly off the radar, such as Tammy the Torpedo or Sivoliere.
Prediction: Tammy the Torpedo
Distaff
| 1 | Untapable | 2-1 |
| 2 | Close Hatches | 5-2 |
| 3 | Don't Tell Sophia | 6-1 |
| 4 | Belle Gallantey | 8-1 |
| 5 | Iotapa | 10-1 |
| 6 | Tiz Midnight | 12-1 |
| T-7 | Parranda | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Ria Antonia | 15-1 |
| 9 | Stanwyck | 20-1 |
| T-10 | Valiant Emilia | 30-1 |
| T-10 | Unbridled Forever | 30-1 |
| T-10 | L'Amour de Ma Vie | 30-1 |
A tremendous field should create plenty of drama in the Distaff. Not only does it feature two top horses in Untapable and Close Hatches, but it also features plenty of depth. The latter group includes Tiz Midnight and Ria Antonia as solid mid-range options.
Normally, a race with that many potential contenders would cause many to shy away from the favorite. But Untapable has won five of her past six starts, including a trio of Grade 1 efforts. It's hard to pick against that type of hot streak.
Prediction: Untapable
Juvenile Fillies
| 1 | Angela Renee | 3-1 |
| 2 | Conquest Eclipse | 5-1 |
| 3 | Top Decile | 6-1 |
| T-4 | By the Moon | 8-1 |
| T-4 | Cristina's Journey | 8-1 |
| 6 | Puca | 10-1 |
| T-7 | Feathered | 12-1 |
| T-7 | Wonder Gal | 12-1 |
| 9 | She's Complete | 15-1 |
| T-10 | Danette | 20-1 |
| T-10 | Majestic Presence | 20-1 |
| T-12 | Hennythelovepenny | 30-1 |
| T-12 | Take Charge Brandi | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Lady Zuzu | 30-1 |
The top two horses in this race faced off last month in the Grade 1 Chandelier, which also took place at Santa Anita Park. Angela Renee edged Conquest Eclipse for her second career win. It didn't represent a perfect trip from either horse, though.
By the Moon is a good option outside of the top two. She finished ahead of Angela Renee in the Grade 1 Spinaway and followed that up with a victory in the Frizette Stakes. The question is whether she'll be able to handle the extra distance.
Prediction: Angela Renee
Filly and Mare Turf
| 1 | Dank | 4-1 |
| 2 | Tarfasha | 5-1 |
| T-3 | Secret Gesture | 6-1 |
| T-3 | Stephanie's Kitten | 6-1 |
| 5 | Just The Judge | 8-1 |
| T-6 | Chicquita | 12-1 |
| T-6 | Veda | 12-1 |
| 8 | Abaco | 15-1 |
| T-9 | Dayatthespa | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Emollient | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Fiesolana | 20-1 |
| T-9 | L'Amour de Ma Vie | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Miss Serendipity | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Parranda | 20-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Irish Mission | 30-1 |
| AE | Rusty Slipper | 30-1 |
| AE | Stormy Lucy | 30-1 |
Dank is the early favorite almost by default. She won this race last year to cap a run of three consecutive victories. She's only raced twice since that point, however. Neither start netted a victory, and now she's coming off a four-month layoff.
If there isn't a sudden return to form, it becomes a wide-open affair. Secret Gesture and Just The Judge are both capable of taking advantage. The latter seemed to round into form in the E.P. Taylor Stakes. The only concern is coming back after just a couple of weeks.
Prediction: Just The Judge
Filly and Mare Sprint
| 1 | Judy the Beauty | 3-1 |
| 2 | Midnight Lucky | 7-2 |
| 3 | Artemis Agrotera | 5-1 |
| 4 | Sweet Reason | 6-1 |
| 5 | Leigh Court | 8-1 |
| 6 | Stonetastic | 10-1 |
| T-7 | Better Lucky | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Little Alexis | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Living The Life | 15-1 |
| T-10 | Southern Honey | 20-1 |
| T-10 | Thank You Marylou | 20-1 |
Judy the Beauty finished second in this race last year behind Groupie Doll, who won it twice in a row and has since retired. She's the logical successor to the crown, but her performance in the Humana Distaff leaves room for doubt.
While Bob Baffert trainee Midnight Lucky is the likely second choice, keep an eye on Stonetastic. There's definitely been an up-and-down nature to her performances, but if she can put together a performance similar to her Prioress Stakes run, she'll be firmly in the mix.
Prediction: Midnight Lucky
Turf Sprint
| 1 | Reneesgotzip | 4-1 |
| 2 | Silentio | 5-1 |
| 3 | Kaigun | 6-1 |
| 4 | No Nay Never | 8-1 |
| T-5 | Bobby's Kitten | 10-1 |
| T-5 | Sweet Swap | 10-1 |
| 7 | Caspar Netscher | 12-1 |
| T-8 | Ambitious Brew | 15-1 |
| T-8 | Home Run Kitten | 15-1 |
| T-8 | Tightend Touchdown | 15-1 |
| T-8 | Undrafted | 15-1 |
| T-12 | Dimension | 20-1 |
| T-12 | Something Extra | 20-1 |
| 14 | Marchman | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Top 5 in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Free as a Bird | 30-1 |
| AE | Ageless | 30-1 |
| AE | Living The Life | 20-1 |
| AE | Za Approval | 15-1 |
| AE | Rock Me Baby | 20-1 |
Reneesgotzip has no shortage of experience in this race. She finished third two years ago before moving into a dead heat for second last year. Mizdirection won both of those battles but has retired, and that's good news for everybody else's chances.
Outside of the favorite, Silentio will probably generate the most attention but has struggled with the pace against elite competition. This is a race in which a value pick could come through. Sweet Swap and Tightend Touchdown are the two best options.
Prediction: Sweet Swap
Juvenile
| 1 | American Pharoah | 5-2 |
| 2 | Daredevil | 7-2 |
| 3 | Carpe Diem | 5-1 |
| T-4 | One Lucky Dane | 12-1 |
| T-4 | Upstart | 12-1 |
| T-6 | Calculator | 15-1 |
| T-6 | Souper Colossal | 15-1 |
| T-6 | War Envoy | 15-1 |
| T-9 | Lucky Player | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Mr. Z | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Texas Red | 20-1 |
| T-9 | The Great War | 20-1 |
| T-13 | Danny Boy | 30-1 |
| T-13 | Private Prospect | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Tough Customer | 30-1 |
| AE | Combat Diver | 30-1 |
| AE | Blue Dancer | 30-1 |
American Pharoah could very well be an overwhelming favorite by post time. After finishing outside the money in his first career start, he's made major strides and pulled off two straight victories against Grade 1 competition.
Daredevil and Carpe Diem are both solid horses who will have a chance if the favorite isn't in peak form. Among the long shots, Lucky Player is worth a look for exotic picks. But it's tough to pick against the top choice here.
Prediction: American Pharoah
Turf
| 1 | Flintshire | 7-2 |
| 2 | Telescope | 5-1 |
| T-3 | Magician | 6-1 |
| T-3 | Main Sequence | 6-1 |
| T-5 | Brown Panther | 12-1 |
| T-5 | Hardest Core | 12-1 |
| T-5 | Secret Gesture | 12-1 |
| T-8 | Imagining | 15-1 |
| T-8 | Just The Judge | 15-1 |
| T-8 | Twilight Eclipse | 15-1 |
| T-11 | Big Blue Kitten | 20-1 |
| T-11 | Chicquita | 20-1 |
| T-13 | Big John B | 30-1 |
| T-13 | Hangover Kid | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Finnegans Wake | 30-1 |
| AE | Starspangled Heat | 30-1 |
This race is still a bit tricky to handicap because the field is unsettled and a clear front-runner hasn't emerged. The difference between Flintshire and the next group of horses is minimal, especially if Main Sequence continues to improve.
In those types of situations, it's best to go with consistency. Telescope has never finished outside the top three in 10 career starts, highlighted by four wins. The lack of a Grade 1 victory is a concern but not enough to completely shy away from him.
Prediction: Telescope
Sprint
| 1 | Secret Circle | 7-2 |
| 2 | Rich Tapestry | 4-1 |
| T-3 | Palace | 6-1 |
| T-3 | Private Zone | 6-1 |
| T-5 | Indianapolis | 12-1 |
| T-5 | Reneesgotzip | 12-1 |
| T-7 | Bakken | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Big Macher | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Work All Week | 15-1 |
| T-10 | Fast Anna | 20-1 |
| T-10 | Mico Margarita | 20-1 |
| T-10 | Seeking the Sherif | 20-1 |
| T-13 | Bourbon Courage | 30-1 |
| T-13 | Salutos Amigos | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Top 5 in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Wind Fire | 50-1 |
| AE | Capo Bastone | 30-1 |
| AE | Bahamian Squall | 30-1 |
| AE | Indexical | 50-1 |
| AE | Eddie's First | 50-1 |
Secret Circle won the race last year. He should face a serious challenge from Rich Tapestry, who already scored a head-to-head victory in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship earlier in the month. It's basically a tossup between the two.
The question mark in the field is Big Macher. He showcased some terrific ability in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Handicap, but he finished fifth in his next start and hasn't raced since. There's some obvious upside, but he's not the safest choice.
Prediction: Rich Tapestry
Mile
| 1 | Toronado | 5-2 |
| 2 | Anodin | 9-2 |
| 3 | Seek Again | 6-1 |
| 4 | Karakontie | 8-1 |
| T-5 | Obviously | 15-1 |
| T-5 | Tom's Tribute | 15-1 |
| T-5 | Trade Storm | 15-1 |
| T-5 | Veda | 15-1 |
| T-9 | Dayatthespa | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Fiesolana | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Grand Arch | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Kaigun | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Mustajeeb | 20-1 |
| T-9 | Summer Front | 20-1 |
| Also Eligible | Top 5 in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Sayaad | 30-1 |
| AE | Tourist | 30-1 |
| AE | Silentio | 20-1 |
| AE | Big Bane Theory | 20-1 |
| AE | Bobby's Kitten | 30-1 |
Usually, this is where Wise Dan would dominate the conversation. Unfortunately, the dominant horse won't be able to go for the three-peat, due to injury. Jennie Rees of USA Today passed along comments from owner-breeder Morton Fink about the racing star's status.
"We won't decide if he will return to training until we see if he heals perfectly, because he has nothing left to prove," Fink said in a statement. "This is not a fracture that can be helped with surgery; he has to heal it on his own…. Wise Dan is a very special horse to us and to the racing community."
He would have been the favorite once again after winning all four races so far in 2014. Instead, it's a chance for another horse to enjoy the spotlight. Toronado is the obvious choice, but he's failed to win his last two starts.
All told, with Wise Dan out of the picture, this race feels like a surprise in the making. Look no further than Tom's Tribute, who's stepped up with two straight wins.
Prediction: Tom's Tribute
Classic
| 1 | Shared Belief | 5-2 |
| 2 | Bayern | 5-1 |
| T-3 | California Chrome | 6-1 |
| T-3 | Tonalist | 6-1 |
| T-5 | Cigar Street | 12-1 |
| T-5 | Zivo | 12-1 |
| T-7 | Moreno | 15-1 |
| T-7 | Toast of New York | 15-1 |
| T-7 | V. E. Day | 15-1 |
| 10 | Majestic Harbor | 20-1 |
| T-11 | Candy Boy | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Footbridge | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Imperative | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Prayer for Relief | 30-1 |
| Also Eligible | Listed in Order of Preference | - |
| AE | Big Cazanova | 30-1 |
Shared Belief remained unbeaten in seven career starts with his triumph in the Awesome Again Stakes. It wasn't the best run of his career, but the fact that he was able to overcome that and a Grade 1 field to win anyway is an example of his talent.
Despite his success, California Chrome is the better-known horse because of his success on the Triple Crown trail. He won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness before falling short in the Belmont. His only race since then was a lackluster sixth-placing outing in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated thinks the reaction to adversity is the difference between the two star horses:
For Chrome, the biggest factor over the last two races was the lack of a late kick. It was on full display in the first two Triple Crown races, but it's gone missing. Rediscovering those late surges is key to his future success, including this week.
Bayern won the aforementioned Pennsylvania Derby, with Chrome unable to contend. Tonalist is coming off a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. From the sleeper brigade, a return to Whitney Handicap form for Moreno would bring him into the conversation.
But Shared Belief is the horse to beat. Without California Chrome at his best, it would take a down performance from the favorite for another contender to win. Don't count on that happening.
Prediction: Shared Belief
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